Monthly Archives: August 2013

USCGC Healy, in the Arctic, 2013

More details at Arctic Sea Ice Blog. About the Healy and it’s mission.

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“Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years” (Fyfe, Gillett, Zwiers, 2013)

There’s a paper out today (just published online) by J. C. Fyfe, N. P. Gillett, and F. W. Zwiers, called “Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years”. I’ve addressed this “pause in warming question” at this blog earlier, and … Continue reading

Posted in climate, climate education, geophysics, physics, science, statistics | 5 Comments

What the public (apparently) accepts as legitimate forecasting

Wild Weather Dan, fellow AGU member, and meteorologist extraordinaire, rightly scoffs at a CBS News piece about the Old Farmers Almanac. Being in the middle of reading a biography of Benjamin Franklin, originator of said Old Farmers Almanac, I am … Continue reading

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“Soon you will be one of us.”

I think the most entertaining introduction to Bayesian thought is provided by Eliezer Yudkowsky in his “An intuitive explanation of Bayes’ Theorem“. The new text, Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, by Professor John Kruschke comes close. But it’s a textbook and … Continue reading

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“Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems”

Sugihara, May, Ye, Hsieh, Deyle, Fogarty, and Munch published what I consider to be a pretty interesting paper in Science called “Detecting causality in complex ecosystems”, linked: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1227079 http://www.uvm.edu/~cdanfort/csc-reading-group/sugihara-causality-science-2012.pdf Professor Andrew Gelman of Columbia seemed unimpressed by the article, and … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, biology, ecology, economics, engineering, maths, reasonableness, science, statistics | 2 Comments

XKCD’s Bayesian seashell

Posted in Bayesian, statistics | 1 Comment

“Why we’re here”, from Dr Larry Peterson on the JOIDES Resolution

Dr Larry Peterson, reporting from Expedition 346 of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP), on “Why we’re here”. Quote in part: The present is the key to the past. This simple statement is one of the axioms of geology, first … Continue reading

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The great Dennis Lindley, interviewed

Tony O’Hagan interviews the great D. V. Lindley on the history and emergence of modern Bayesian statistics. This is courtesy of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA). The Jimmy Savage Professor Lindley refers to was Leonard Jimmie Savage.

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“Iron fertilization enhanced net community production but not downward particle flux … “

From recent article “Iron fertilization enhanced net community production but not downward particle flux during the Southern Ocean iron fertilization experiment LOHAFEX”, by P. Martin, M. Rutgers van der Loeff, N. Cassar, P. Vandromme, F. d’Ovidio, L. Stemmann, R. Rengarajan, … Continue reading

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“Bayes’ theorem in the 21st century”

Professor Bradley Efron wrote a piece on “Bayes’ theorem in the 21st century” in Science for 7th June 2013 which, as always, offers his measured approach to the frequentist-Bayesian controversy (see B. Efron, “A 250 year argument: Belief, behavior, and the … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, education, maths, optimization, rationality, SPSA, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search | Leave a comment

Professor Andrew Dessler talks feedbacks and climate sensitivity

There’s more at the source of the link, hat tip to Hot Topics.

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American Geophysical Union (AGU) issues revised position statement on Climate Change

The statement and description are at the AGU site. In announcing the statement, Gerald North, chair of the AGU’s Climate Change Position Statement Review Panel said:  Because our understanding of climate change and its impacts on the world around us … Continue reading

Posted in climate, climate education, economics, environment, geophysics, oceanography, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, science | Tagged | Leave a comment