Monthly Archives: August 2013

USCGC Healy, in the Arctic, 2013

Posted on 30 August 2013 by

More details at Arctic Sea Ice Blog. About the Healy and it’s mission.

Posted in climate, geophysics, oceanography, science | Leave a comment

“Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years” (Fyfe, Gillett, Zwiers, 2013)

Posted on 28 August 2013 by

There’s a paper out today (just published online) by J. C. Fyfe, N. P. Gillett, and F. W. Zwiers, called “Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years”. I’ve addressed this “pause in warming question” at this blog earlier, and … Continue reading →

Posted in climate, climate education, geophysics, physics, science, statistics | 9 Comments

What the public (apparently) accepts as legitimate forecasting

Posted on 26 August 2013 by

Wild Weather Dan, fellow AGU member, and meteorologist extraordinaire, rightly scoffs at a CBS News piece about the Old Farmers Almanac. Being in the middle of reading a biography of Benjamin Franklin, originator of said Old Farmers Almanac, I am … Continue reading →

Posted in climate education, education, rationality, reasonableness | Leave a comment

“Soon you will be one of us.”

Posted on 22 August 2013 by

I think the most entertaining introduction to Bayesian thought is provided by Eliezer Yudkowsky in his “An intuitive explanation of Bayes’ Theorem“. The new text, Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, by Professor John Kruschke comes close. But it’s a textbook and … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian, maths, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, Unitarian Universalism | Leave a comment

“Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems”

Posted on 20 August 2013 by

Sugihara, May, Ye, Hsieh, Deyle, Fogarty, and Munch published what I consider to be a pretty interesting paper in Science called “Detecting causality in complex ecosystems”, linked: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1227079 http://www.uvm.edu/~cdanfort/csc-reading-group/sugihara-causality-science-2012.pdf Professor Andrew Gelman of Columbia seemed unimpressed by the article, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian, biology, ecology, economics, engineering, maths, reasonableness, science, statistics | 2 Comments

XKCD’s Bayesian seashell

Posted on 16 August 2013 by
Posted in Bayesian, statistics | 1 Comment

“Why we’re here”, from Dr Larry Peterson on the JOIDES Resolution

Posted on 16 August 2013 by

Dr Larry Peterson, reporting from Expedition 346 of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP), on “Why we’re here”. Quote in part: The present is the key to the past. This simple statement is one of the axioms of geology, first … Continue reading →

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The great Dennis Lindley, interviewed

Posted on 15 August 2013 by

Tony O’Hagan interviews the great D. V. Lindley on the history and emergence of modern Bayesian statistics. This is courtesy of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA). The Jimmy Savage Professor Lindley refers to was Leonard Jimmie Savage.

Posted in history, maths, rationality, statistics | Leave a comment

“Iron fertilization enhanced net community production but not downward particle flux … “

Posted on 13 August 2013 by

From recent article “Iron fertilization enhanced net community production but not downward particle flux during the Southern Ocean iron fertilization experiment LOHAFEX”, by P. Martin, M. Rutgers van der Loeff, N. Cassar, P. Vandromme, F. d’Ovidio, L. Stemmann, R. Rengarajan, … Continue reading →

Posted in climate, engineering, environment, geoengineering, geophysics, oceanography, science | Leave a comment

“Bayes’ theorem in the 21st century”

Posted on 13 August 2013 by

Professor Bradley Efron wrote a piece on “Bayes’ theorem in the 21st century” in Science for 7th June 2013 which, as always, offers his measured approach to the frequentist-Bayesian controversy (see B. Efron, “A 250 year argument: Belief, behavior, and the … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian, education, maths, optimization, rationality, SPSA, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search | Leave a comment

Professor Andrew Dessler talks feedbacks and climate sensitivity

Posted on 12 August 2013 by

There’s more at the source of the link, hat tip to Hot Topics.

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American Geophysical Union (AGU) issues revised position statement on Climate Change

Posted on 9 August 2013 by

The statement and description are at the AGU site. In announcing the statement, Gerald North, chair of the AGU’s Climate Change Position Statement Review Panel said:  Because our understanding of climate change and its impacts on the world around us … Continue reading →

Posted in climate, climate education, economics, environment, geophysics, oceanography, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, science | Tagged | Leave a comment