Monthly Archives: December 2014
Professor Darren Wilkinson offers a pithy insight on how to go about constructing statistical models, notably hierarchical ones: “… we want to model the process as we would simulate it ….” This appears in his blog post One-way ANOVA with … Continue reading
I happened across what I consider to be an amazing slide while “reading around” the work of Deser and colleagues. It is reproduced below, taken from Dagg and Wills: (Click image to see a larger picture, and use browser ‘back’ … Continue reading
Climate modelers and models see as their frontier the problem of dealing with spontaneous dynamics in systems such as atmosphere or ocean which are not directly forced by boundary conditions such as radiative forcing due to increased greenhouse gas (“GHG”) … Continue reading
illustrating particle filters and Bayesian fusion using successive location estimates on the unit circle
Introduction Modern treatments of Bayesian integration to obtain posterior densities often use some form of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (“MCMC”), typically Gibbs sampling. Gibbs works well with many Bayesian hierarchical models. The standard problem-solving situation with these is that a … Continue reading
“That’s making a big assumption.” (This post is a follow-on from an earlier one.) In the colloquial, the phrase means basing an argument on a precondition which is unusual or atypical or offends common sense. When applied to scientific hypotheses, … Continue reading
From Climate Change Ecology, An intuitive explanation for the 'double-zeroes' problem with Euclidean distances.
Professor John Geweke, in a Comment on an article by Professor Mark Berliner a bit back (1992), shows how Bayesian inference continues to be a means for expressing subjective uncertainty even in a scheme where there are no stochastics but … Continue reading
This is interesting, because it shows how any particular observational history of Earth is one election of a large number of possible futures. This is exactly the same point made by Slava Kharin in his 2008 tutorial lecture “Statistical concepts … Continue reading
I often read before going to sleep at night, using my Amazon Kindle Fire. Many of the books I have are available there. I do find some of the Kindle books which are more technical, meaning, having symbols and equations, … Continue reading
J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, “Can we trust climate models?”, WIREs Climate Change 2014, 5:435–440. doi: 10.1002/wcc.288. See also D. A. Stainforth, T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D. J. Frame, J. A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. … Continue reading
In addition to Larry Wasserman’s article, and the power of arXiv.org, there are these two interesting YouTube interviews with Jack Andraka.
This is Figure 1 from N. G. Phillips, R. Ackley, E. R. Crosson, A. Down, L. R. Hutyra, M. Brondfield, J. D. Karr, K. Zhao, R. B. Jackson, “Mapping urban pipeline leaks: Methane leaks across Boston“. See also D.Wunch, P.O.Wennberg, … Continue reading
A new article from Scientific American suggests putting up a link to the 2011 study by the American Physical Society on the topic would be a good idea. Note that while some costs are estimated, and compared to costs of … Continue reading
U.S. GDP is growing. Gasoline prices are plunging. Natural gas prices are plummeting. Consumption should be soaring. It isn’t. Here’s why. http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2014-america-shakes-off-oil-addiction/
From Phil Plait’s Bad Astronomy blog.
(“Ostracism and fines in a public goods game with accidental contributions: The importance of punishment type”) An overview. The article
NCAR’s CVDP, just written up in AGU’s EOS. The purpose, and links. The talk. Nicely done test engineering effort.
Originally posted on Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology:
Fake climate sceptics love the hiatus, the period since the strong El Niño in 1998 where global mean temperature has not increased according to their simplistic notions of global warming. The longer the “hiatus”,…
There’s a report in the Financial Times today that UN negotiators are considering a proposal to phase out oil, coal, and gas by 2050. There’s a second permitting fossil fuels to be used, but only in countries which ensured “net … Continue reading
See the story. Subsidies for coal and oil companies. Corruption at the Sydney Water Corporation.
By Tomoharu Eguchi from 2008: “An Introduction to Bayesian Statistics Without Using Equations“.
This is based upon my solution of Exercise 2.3, page 18, R. Christensen, W. Johnson, A. Branscum, T. E. Hanson, Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis, Chapman & Hall, 2011. The purpose is to show how information latent in a set … Continue reading
A New York Times article, with copies of letters between state attorneys general and energy utilities and companies documenting collusion on matters of energy regulation, and opposing federal EPA emissions constraints, has been posted today. One correspondence is shown below:
I had previously recommended the blog, Science Of Doom, in my links. There is a lot of careful science there, especially in its exposition of atmospheric radiation and some of the subtleties of interpreting common data, such as those pertaining … Continue reading
Not much comment required. Don’t need any fancy “climate models”. Just need to extrapolate, for a very short time frame, where things are going.
A scientific detective story. El Niño. How in the world did they figure that out? “Fishing in pink waters: How scientists unraveled the El Niño mystery“. By Daniel Gross. Hat tip to Greg Laden.
Originally posted on Open Mind:
One day, a new data set is released. The rumor runs rampant that it’s annual average global temperature since 1980. Climate scientist “A” states that there is clearly a warming trend (shown by the red…