Monthly Archives: December 2014

“[W]e want to model the process as we would simulate it.”

Professor Darren Wilkinson offers a pithy insight on how to go about constructing statistical models, notably hierarchical ones: “… we want to model the process as we would simulate it ….” This appears in his blog post One-way ANOVA with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, biology, ecology, engineering, forecasting, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, model comparison, optimization, population biology, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sociology, statistics, stochastic algorithms | Tagged | Leave a comment

climate internal variability is just residual variance from modeling with a smooth curve?

I happened across what I consider to be an amazing slide while “reading around” the work of Deser and colleagues. It is reproduced below, taken from Dagg and Wills: (Click image to see a larger picture, and use browser ‘back’ … Continue reading

Posted in cat1, citizen science, climate, climate education, forecasting, geophysics, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, physics, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics | 4 Comments

struggling with problems already partly solved by others

Climate modelers and models see as their frontier the problem of dealing with spontaneous dynamics in systems such as atmosphere or ocean which are not directly forced by boundary conditions such as radiative forcing due to increased greenhouse gas (“GHG”) … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, biology, climate, climate education, differential equations, ecology, engineering, environment, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, population biology, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search | 1 Comment

illustrating particle filters and Bayesian fusion using successive location estimates on the unit circle

Introduction Modern treatments of Bayesian integration to obtain posterior densities often use some form of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (“MCMC”), typically Gibbs sampling. Gibbs works well with many Bayesian hierarchical models. The standard problem-solving situation with these is that a … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, biology, mathematics, maths, population biology, probabilistic programming, R, statistics, stochastic algorithms | 1 Comment

“… making a big assumption …”

“That’s making a big assumption.” (This post is a follow-on from an earlier one.) In the colloquial, the phrase means basing an argument on a precondition which is unusual or atypical or offends common sense. When applied to scientific hypotheses, … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, climate, climate education, environment, geophysics, information theoretic statistics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, model comparison, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, statistics | 1 Comment

Species abundances, raw abundances, and species composition

From Climate Change Ecology, An intuitive explanation for the 'double-zeroes' problem with Euclidean distances.

Posted in biology, climate, conservation, ecology, environment, mathematics, mathematics education, population biology, Schnabel census, science, science education, statistics | 3 Comments

Bayesian inference works even in a chaotic or deterministic world

Professor John Geweke, in a Comment on an article by Professor Mark Berliner a bit back (1992), shows how Bayesian inference continues to be a means for expressing subjective uncertainty even in a scheme where there are no stochastics but … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, citizen science, economics, education, forecasting, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, stochastic algorithms | Leave a comment

Understanding mechanisms in climate over short periods and in local regions

This is interesting, because it shows how any particular observational history of Earth is one election of a large number of possible futures. This is exactly the same point made by Slava Kharin in his 2008 tutorial lecture “Statistical concepts … Continue reading

Posted in carbon dioxide, climate, climate education, differential equations, ecology, energy, environment, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, stochastic algorithms | 2 Comments

Spelling corrector on the Amazon Kindle Fire (early model): Writing things you don’t mean

I often read before going to sleep at night, using my Amazon Kindle Fire. Many of the books I have are available there. I do find some of the Kindle books which are more technical, meaning, having symbols and equations, … Continue reading

Posted in Principles of Planetary Climate, silly tech devices, Wordpress | Leave a comment

“Can we trust climate models?”

J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, “Can we trust climate models?”, WIREs Climate Change 2014, 5:435–440. doi: 10.1002/wcc.288. See also D. A. Stainforth, T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D. J. Frame, J. A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, climate, climate education, differential equations, ecology, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics education, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, statistics, stochastic algorithms | 1 Comment

probabilistic discussions of climate policy

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate education, ecology, economics, education, engineering, mathematics education, optimization, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science education, statistics | Leave a comment

open access for everything

In addition to Larry Wasserman’s article, and the power of arXiv.org, there are these two interesting YouTube interviews with Jack Andraka.

Posted in mathematical publishing, science education, scientific publishing, the right to know | Leave a comment

carbon dioxide

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Methane leaks around Boston

This is Figure 1 from N. G. Phillips, R. Ackley, E. R. Crosson, A. Down, L. R. Hutyra, M. Brondfield, J. D. Karr, K. Zhao, R. B. Jackson, “Mapping urban pipeline leaks: Methane leaks across Boston“. See also D.Wunch, P.O.Wennberg, … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, citizen science, climate, demand-side solutions, ecology, education, engineering, environment, methane, natural gas | 1 Comment

Direct Air Capture of Carbon Dioxide

A new article from Scientific American suggests putting up a link to the 2011 study by the American Physical Society on the topic would be a good idea. Note that while some costs are estimated, and compared to costs of … Continue reading

Posted in carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, carbon dioxide sequestration, civilization, climate, climate education, consumption, economics, efficiency, energy, engineering, environment, ethics, geoengineering, geophysics, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk | Leave a comment

Bloomberg on why gasoline consumption isn’t soaring with drop in oil prices

U.S. GDP is growing. Gasoline prices are plunging. Natural gas prices are plummeting. Consumption should be soaring. It isn’t. Here’s why. http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2014-america-shakes-off-oil-addiction/

Posted in carbon dioxide, citizenship, climate, conservation, consumption, demand-side solutions, ecology, economics, energy, energy reduction, environment, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, humanism, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, meteorology, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, wind power | Leave a comment

Climate Science: What You Need To Know

From Phil Plait’s Bad Astronomy blog.

Posted in astronomy, astrophysics, carbon dioxide, chemistry, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate education, consumption, ecology, economics, education, energy, engineering, environment, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, humanism, investment in wind and solar energy, meteorology, methane, NOAA, oceanography, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, scientific publishing, solar power, the right to know, wind power | Leave a comment

Liddell and Kruschke, on conditional logistic Bayesian estimation

(“Ostracism and fines in a public goods game with accidental contributions: The importance of punishment type”) An overview. The article

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, biology, citizenship, civilization, compassion, ecology, economics, ethics, humanism, investing, MCMC, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, sociology, statistics | Leave a comment

Climate Variability Diagnostics Package

NCAR’s CVDP, just written up in AGU’s EOS. The purpose, and links. The talk. Nicely done test engineering effort.

Posted in climate, differential equations, engineering, environment, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, physics, science, statistics, testing | Leave a comment

Recipe for a hiatus

Originally posted on Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology:
Fake climate sceptics love the hiatus, the period since the strong El Niño in 1998 where global mean temperature has not increased according to their simplistic notions of global warming. The longer the “hiatus”,…

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Exciting if improbable news

There’s a report in the Financial Times today that UN negotiators are considering a proposal to phase out oil, coal, and gas by 2050. There’s a second permitting fossil fuels to be used, but only in countries which ensured “net … Continue reading

Posted in biology, Boston Ethical Society, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, carbon dioxide sequestration, Carbon Tax, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate education, consumption, ecology, economics, energy, energy reduction, environment, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, meteorology, methane, nuclear power, oceanography, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, solar power, wind power | Leave a comment

Abbot’s “Direct Action” in Aussieland under assault

See the story. Subsidies for coal and oil companies. Corruption at the Sydney Water Corporation.

Posted in citizenship, civilization, climate, climate education, education, environment, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk | Leave a comment

An equation-free introduction to Bayesian inference

By Tomoharu Eguchi from 2008: “An Introduction to Bayesian Statistics Without Using Equations“.

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, BUGS, JAGS, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, science education, statistics | Leave a comment

example of Bayesian inversion

This is based upon my solution of Exercise 2.3, page 18, R. Christensen, W. Johnson, A. Branscum, T. E. Hanson, Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis, Chapman & Hall, 2011. The purpose is to show how information latent in a set … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, climate education, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, mathematics, maths, MCMC, physics, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, statistics | 1 Comment

State governments for sale

A New York Times article, with copies of letters between state attorneys general and energy utilities and companies documenting collusion on matters of energy regulation, and opposing federal EPA emissions constraints, has been posted today. One correspondence is shown below:

Posted in carbon dioxide, citizenship, climate, energy, ethics, history, methane, politics, rationality, reasonableness | Leave a comment

Adieu, Science Of Doom; hallo QuantPalaeo, and Rabett Run

I had previously recommended the blog, Science Of Doom, in my links. There is a lot of careful science there, especially in its exposition of atmospheric radiation and some of the subtleties of interpreting common data, such as those pertaining … Continue reading

Posted in citizen science, climate, climate education, rationality, reasonableness, science, Uncategorized | 1 Comment

extrapolations

Not much comment required. Don’t need any fancy “climate models”. Just need to extrapolate, for a very short time frame, where things are going.

Posted in carbon dioxide, climate, climate education, conservation, consumption, demand-side solutions, ecology, economics, energy reduction, engineering, environment, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, humanism, investment in wind and solar energy, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NOAA, oceanography, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, statistics | 2 Comments

El Nino, the scientific story (by Daniel Gross)

A scientific detective story. El Niño. How in the world did they figure that out? “Fishing in pink waters: How scientists unraveled the El Niño mystery“. By Daniel Gross. Hat tip to Greg Laden.    

Posted in climate, differential equations, energy, environment, forecasting, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NASA, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics | Leave a comment

“A pause or not a pause, that is the question.”

Originally posted on Open Mind:
One day, a new data set is released. The rumor runs rampant that it’s annual average global temperature since 1980. Climate scientist “A” states that there is clearly a warming trend (shown by the red…

Posted in climate, climate education, environment, forecasting, geophysics, mathematical publishing, mathematics, maths, meteorology, obfuscating data, physics, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

“Bank of England to examine financial risks linked to fossil fuels”

See http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/189f21d8-7737-11e4-a082-00144feabdc0.html

Posted in carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, civilization, climate, consumption, demand-side solutions, education, efficiency, energy, environment, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, investing, oceanography, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, science | 1 Comment