Monthly Archives: December 2015

Not too shabby: “What’s warming the world” (Bloomberg Business), and “The siege of Miami” (The New Yorker)

What’s warming the world Infographic allowing the visitor to overlay time series of candidate causes for global warming, and thereby permitting them to draw their own conclusions. And Elizabeth Kolbert’s piece in The New Yorker, brings home the contradictions and … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, business, climate change, climate data, climate zombies, complex systems, critical slowing down, denial, disingenuity, economics, environment, evidence, fossil fuels, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, mitigation, model comparison, time series | Leave a comment

About that “hide the decline” thing …

(Hat tip to Climate Denial Crock of the Week) It’s amazing what you can do when you take words out of context. Watch The Daily Show some time. But that’s entertainment, not governance. Hide the decline? The email doesn’t say … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, climate, climate data, climate disruption, denial, environment, ethics, evidence, fear uncertainty and doubt, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, meteorology, oceanography, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, science, temporal myopia | Leave a comment

“Richard Lindzen: limited understanding?” (Tamino)

Originally posted on Open Mind:
A recent WUWT post by Richard Lindzen is a rather lame attempt to defend an equally lame opinion piece by Freeman Dyson in the Boston Globe. Evidently, Lindzen felt the need to defend Dyson’s piece…

Posted in Anthropocene, climate, climate change, climate disruption, denial, floods, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, Kerry Emanuel, meteorology, NCAR, Neill deGrasse Tyson, NOAA, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, Tamino, zero carbon | Leave a comment

First Light

Updated: 1828 EST, 24th December 2015 Our solar PV array is up, operating, and generating. It consists of 29 SunPower X-Series X21-345 panels (specs below), generating 345w at peak, with optimizers. The generation capacity is 10 kW. The array is … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, citizenship, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, ecology, economics, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, energy utilities, environment, ethics, fossil fuel divestment, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, La Nina, microgrids, public utility commissions, PUCs, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Tony Seba, zero carbon | 5 Comments

Paris’ COP21: Great cheerleading from the diplomats, but … +ENSO is here

This target is, however, extremely demanding. Climate researchers have explored only a few scenarios that limit warming to 1.5 °C. They show that global emissions of greenhouse gases must be between 70% and 95% lower in 2050 than they were in … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, climate, climate change, climate disruption, COP21, Eaarth, ecology, economics, El Nino, ENSO, environment, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, La Nina, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, physics, planning, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, sustainability, Svante Arrhenius, zero carbon | 1 Comment

All I do is complain, complain …

I was reviewing a presentation given as part of a short course in the machine learning genre today, and happened across the following two bullets, under the heading “Strictly Stationary Processes”: Predicting a time series is possible if and only … Continue reading

Posted in bifurcations, chaos, citizen science, convergent cross-mapping, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, engineering, Floris Takens, generalized linear models, geophysics, George Sughihara, ignorance, Lenny Smith, Lorenz, mathematics, maths, meteorology, prediction, probability, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, Takens embedding theorem, the right to know, time series | 1 Comment

Climate Conclusions: The American Petroleum Institute (1980)

The following are excerpted from a memorandum quoted by the Inside Climate News team, documenting the minutes of a 29th February 1980 of a task force on climate change at the American Petroleum Institute. Hat tip to Climate Denial Crock … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, American Petroleum Institute, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, Chevron, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, denial, ecology, economics, environment, ethics, evidence, Exxon, fear uncertainty and doubt, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Gulf Oil, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, natural gas, open data, physics, pipelines, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, science, selfishness, Standard Oil of California, sustainability, Texaco, the right to know, the value of financial assets | Leave a comment

“That time has come and gone.”

Lonnie Thompson, PhD,Byrd Polar Center, Ohio State University: “When I first started working on this and seeing the system change, I think it was 1992 when I first testified at U.S. Senate on climate change. Back then I talked about … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, environment, geophysics, glaciers, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, icesheets, IPCC, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, science, sea level rise, Spaceship Earth, temporal myopia, UNFCCC | Leave a comment

R and “big data”

On 2nd November 2015, Wes McKinney, the developer of the highly useful Python pandas module (and other things, including books), wrote an amusing blog post, “The problem with the data science language wars“. I by no means disagree with him. … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, big data, bigmemory package for R, Jay Emerson, MCMC, numerics, Python 3, R, Yale University Statistics Department | Leave a comment

Michael Osborne on Predictable Renewable Energy

Posted in clean disruption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, energy utilities, fossil fuel divestment, investment in wind and solar energy, meteorology, microgrids, planning, public utility commissions, PUCs, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | 1 Comment

Walt Disney World: November 2015

Photos: https://goo.gl/oUjagl

Posted in Disney, Walt Disney Company | Leave a comment

on the exquisitely fragile, blue ball, with all the life we know everywhere, and ever was

(Click image for an astonishingly wonderful large photo. Use browser Back button to return.) It’s just Earth. And Earth will be okay, completely fine, with or without us. As will the biosphere, our companions. It cannot be worse than the … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, astronomy, astrophysics, climate, Eaarth, geophysics, meteorology, oceanography, physics, science, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Spaceship Earth, WHOI | Leave a comment

“What just happened to wind and solar is a really big deal”

From Bloomberg New Energy Finance: “This is massive,” said Ethan Zindler, head of U.S. policy analysis at BNEF. In the short term, the deal will speed up the shift from fossil fuels more than the global climate deal struck this … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, Cape Wind, clean disruption, conservation, consumption, COP21, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, corporate supply chains, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, dynamical systems, economics, energy, energy reduction, energy utilities, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, microgrids, pipelines, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Tony Seba, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment

November Hottest Ever, and Christmas Likely To bring Record Warmth in The East (Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal; AGU Blogosphere)

The long-range guidance is showing strong indications that the incredible December warmth in the Eastern U.S. will continue to the end of the month. A blast of cold air will arrive later this week,… (Click on image for larger map, … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, capricious gods, climate, climate models, Dan Satterfield, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ensembles, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, numerical software, physics, science, the right to know, wave equations | Leave a comment

“No – no words. No words to describe it.”

Some celestial event. No – no words. No words to describe it. Poetry! They should’ve sent a poet. So beautiful. So beautiful… I had no idea. (From Carl Sagan’s Contact, the movie version.) Hat tip to Climate Denial Crock of … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, astronomy, astrophysics, Bill Nye, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, Carl Sagan, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, COP21, Disney, ecology, education, energy, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, James Hansen, meteorology, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, Walt Disney Company, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Schwarzenegger: “I have heard all your questions … There are two doors.”

“I, personally, want a plan. I don’t want to be like the last horse and buggy salesman who was holding out as cars took over the roads. I don’t want to be the last investor in Blockbuster as Netflix emerged. … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Arnold Schwarzennegger, bollocks, Cape Wind, clean disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, economics, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, environment, ethics, exponential growth, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, Hyper Anthropocene, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, microgrids, planning, politics, public utility commissions, PUCs, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Tony Seba, University of California, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Wind and Solar are Cheaper than Fossil Fuels and Nuclear Right Now

… and that’s based upon levelized cost of energy, without subsidies! See a summary of Lazard’s report, the key chart below: (Click on image to see a larger version. Click on your browser’s Back button to return to blog.) the … Continue reading

Posted in bifurcations, Cape Wind, Carbon Worshipers, clean disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, destructive economic development, economics, efficiency, EIA, energy, energy reduction, energy utilities, engineering, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, methane, microgrids, natural gas, nuclear power, open data, pipelines, politics, prediction, public utility commissions, PUCs, Sankey diagram, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, sustainability, temporal myopia, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, wind energy, wind power | Leave a comment

dynamic linear model applied to sea-level-rise anomalies

I spent much of the data working up a function for level+trend dynamic linear modeling based upon the dlm package by Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, while trying some calculations and code for regime shift detection. One of the test cases … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, dynamic linear models, floods, forecasting, Frequentist, global warming, icesheets, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, meteorology, open data, sea level rise, state-space models, statistics, time series | Leave a comment

Admiral David Titley (USN, retired), oceanographer, on climate models and satellite temperature data

(Hat tip to Peter Sinclair’s Climate Denial Crock of the Week.) More: Still more: And a 22 minute lecture at TEDx Pentagon:

Posted in AMETSOC, astrophysics, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, denial, environment, geophysics, global warming, ignorance, IPCC, James Hansen, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, science | Leave a comment

Pale Blue Dot

Compassion, yes. Love, no.

Posted in astronomy, astrophysics, atheism, Bill Maher, Bill Nye, bollocks, Boston Ethical Society, Carl Sagan, citizenship, civilization, compassion, ecology, geophysics, humanism, NASA, physical materialism, physics, population biology, Sankey diagram, Spaceship Earth, statistics, stochastics | 1 Comment

“The storage necessity myth: how to choreograph high-renewables electricity systems”

(This was originally presented by CleanTechMedia.) Sounds like a great role for smart control systems. Flash COP21 won’t matter. Listen to Professor Tony Seba. (Use your browser Back button to return to this blog.) Excerpt: Clearly, though, many vested interests … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Cape Wind, Carbon Tax, citizenship, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, denial, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, economics, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, energy utilities, engineering, fear uncertainty and doubt, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, investment in wind and solar energy, meteorology, microgrids, natural gas, obfuscating data, planning, politics, public utility commissions, PUCs, rationality, reasonableness, Sankey diagram, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Stanford University, sustainability, the right to know, Tony Seba, University of California Berkeley, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | 3 Comments

“Wealthy nations spend 40 times as much money subsidizing fossil fuel production as they contribute to the Green Climate Fund”

The next time you hear or read some wag, random solar-hater, or shill for a dirty fossil fuel company (like “natural gas”, really, explosive methane), or the likes of Spectra Energy bemoan the subsidies states like Massachusetts and New York … Continue reading

Posted in Cape Wind, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, corruption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, disingenuity, efficiency, energy, energy utilities, environment, fear uncertainty and doubt, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, investment in wind and solar energy, methane, microgrids, mitigation, pipelines, planning, politics, public utility commissions, rationality, Sankey diagram, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, sustainability, Tony Seba, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment

El Nino In A Can – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Click the image above to see a video from the GFDL CM2.6 climate model. This is NOT this year’s El Nino. When you start a climate model in which the ocean and the land and atmosphere can inte… Source: El … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, astrophysics, climate, climate change, climate models, computation, Dan Satterfield, differential equations, diffusion, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Kerry Emanuel, mathematics, maths, mesh models, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, numerical analysis, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, Spaceship Earth, stochastics, supercomputers, the right to know, thermodynamics, time series | Leave a comment

Thoughts on “Regime Shift?”

John Baez at The Azimuth Project opened a discussion on the recent paper by Reid, et al Philip C. Reid et al, Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift on the Earth’s climate and systems, Global Change Biology, 2015. I … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, changepoint detection, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, dynamic linear models, ecology, ensembles, environment, global warming, population biology, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, regime shifts, state-space models, stochastic algorithms, time series | Leave a comment

BRANDALISM

The organization, the artists, and the gallery of shame.

Posted in Anthropocene, art, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, Carbon Worshipers, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, COP21, corruption, denial, economics, global warming, greenwashing, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, rationality, risk, UNFCCC, zero carbon | Leave a comment

December 2015 Temperature Anomalies

(Click on image for a larger picture. Use your browser return button to come back.) From Dan Satterfield’s blog and analysis. And, if you want to see what we’re in for, and where the dark corners are, check out this … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, bollocks, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, Dan Satterfield, ENSO, environment, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, oceanography, open data, physics, science, statistics | Leave a comment

“1D Wave with Delta Potential and Triangle Initial Position” (Jeff Galkowski, Stanford)

The latest calculations from Jeff Galkowski, of Stanford.

Posted in computation, engineering, Jeff Galkowski, mathematics, maths, McGill University, numerical analysis, numerical software, physics, proud dad, quantum, scattering, science, Stanford University, the right to know, University of California Berkeley, University of Rochester, wave equations, waves | Leave a comment