Monthly Archives: July 2016

“Full-depth Ocean Heat Content” reblog

This is a re-blog of an excellent post at And Then There’s Physics, titled Full-depth OHC or, expanded, “full-depth ocean heat content”. Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, computation, differential equations, ensembles, environment, fluid dynamics, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Lorenz, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, physics, science, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series | Leave a comment

Richard Somerville, UCSD, Scripps: “The science is becoming more widely accepted”

By Richard Somerville, emiritus professor of Oceanography from Scripps Institution of Oceanography. See the site he helps build and run regarding communication regarding change.

Posted in adaptation, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atmosphere, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, environment, forecasting, global warming, meteorology, oceanography, Principles of Planetary Climate, science, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, University of California, zero carbon | Leave a comment

“Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of weather and climate models”

Judith Berner, Ulrich Achatz, Lauriane Batté, Lisa Bengtsson, Alvaro De La Cámara, Hannah M. Christensen, Matteo Colangeli, Danielle R. B. Coleman, Daan Crommelin, Stamen I. Dolaptchiev, Christian L.E. Franzke, Petra Friederichs, Peter Imkeller, Heikki Järvinen, Stephan Juricke, Vassili Kitsios, François … Continue reading

Posted in biology, climate models, complex systems, convergent cross-mapping, data science, dynamical systems, ecology, Ethan Deyle, Floris Takens, George Sughihara, Hao Ye, likelihood-free, Lorenz, mathematics, meteorological models, model-free forecasting, physics, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, Takens embedding theorem, time series, Victor Brovkin | 4 Comments

Natural gas: The Zaphod Beeblebrox of energy

Amber Lin at The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists describes the two-headed character of natural gas plants needed to implement “natural gas as a bridge fuel”, and sketches the stark reality proponents of that argument are embracing if they are … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, atmosphere, Bloomberg, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to nowhere, bridge to somewhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, distributed generation, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy utilities, explosive methane, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, fracking, gas pipeline leaks, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, methane, natural gas, networks, petroleum, pipelines, planning, politics, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regulatory capture, Sankey diagram, solar domination, stranded assets, supply chains, the energy of the people, the green century, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, zero carbon | 1 Comment

The Presidential betting markets

Someone blatantly misrepresented the U.S. Presidential election betting markets in a Google+ comment thread tonight, and I wanted to bring these forward, here. See the latest odds and assessments from the prediction markets. Done. No doubt some supporters of Trump … Continue reading

Posted in forecasting, investing, politics, prediction markets, rationality, reasonableness, statistics | Leave a comment

Now, if we could only say the same thing about Massachusetts …

Massachusetts is supposed to be a Blue State. Massachusetts is supposed to be concerned about the environment, full of tree-hugging eco-weenies (like myself!), and sprouting solar panels from every other rooftop. Massachusetts is supposed to have aggressive support for zero … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, bridge to nowhere, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, Cape Wind, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, clean disruption, climate business, corruption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, distributed generation, economics, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy utilities, explosive methane, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, gas pipeline leaks, Green Tea Coalition, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Joseph Schumpeter, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, local generation, MA, Mark Jacobson, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Massachusetts Interfaith Coalition for Climate Action, Michael Osborne, natural gas, New England, Nikola Tesla, pipelines, politics, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regulatory capture, risk, Sankey diagram, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, supply chains, Texas, the energy of the people, the green century, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | 1 Comment

David Spiegelhalter on `how to spot a dodgy statistic’

In this political season, it’s useful to brush up on rhetorical skills, particularly ones involving numbers and statistics, or what John Allen Paulos called numeracy. Professor David Spiegelhalter has written a guide to some of these tricks. Read the whole … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, anemic data, Bayes, Bayesian, chance, citizenship, civilization, corruption, Daniel Kahneman, disingenuity, Donald Trump, education, games of chance, ignorance, maths, moral leadership, obfuscating data, open data, perceptions, politics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, rhetoric, risk, sampling, science, sociology, statistics, the right to know | Leave a comment

Rushing the +2 degree Celsius boundary

I made a comment on Google+ pertaining to a report of a recent NOAA finding. Enjoy. But remember that COP21 boundary is equivalent to 450 ppm CO2.

Posted in adaptation, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atmosphere, Bill Nye, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate disruption, COP21, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, differential equations, disruption, distributed generation, Donald Trump, ecology, El Nina, El Nino, energy, energy reduction, engineering, environment, environmental law, Epcot, explosive methane, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, local generation, Mark Jacobson, Martyn Plummer, microgrids, Miguel Altieri, philosophy, physical materialism, R, resiliency, Ricky Rood, risk, Sankey diagram | Leave a comment

BOYCOTT natural gas, American or otherwise

It’s one thing to oppose pipelines and continued use of fossil fuels, but there is little as effective as a boycott of the key product. This is certainly not a new idea. (I don’t do Facebook. See this 2001 article … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, atmosphere, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to nowhere, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate justice, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, denial, destructive economic development, distributed generation, ecology, economics, electricity, electricity markets, energy, environment, explosive methane, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, fracking, gas pipeline leaks, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, ISO-NE, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, methane, natural gas, New England, politics, public utility commissions, rationality, regulatory capture, Sankey diagram, the energy of the people, the problem of evil, the right to be and act stupid, the stack of lies, the tragedy of our present civilization, zero carbon, ``The tide is risin'/And so are we'' | Leave a comment

Mark Carney: Why are financial regulators and central bank governors looking at climate?

http://www.cbc.ca/i/caffeine/syndicate/?mediaId=725874755644 “We don’t want a Minsky moment about climate.” Update, 2016-07-19 Interesting that Carney talks about “stabilizing at a temperature” when emissions are stabilized using a Carbon tax. He agrees with a Carbon tax, but he seems to have his … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Bloomberg, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BLUE, central banks, civilization, climate, climate business, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, climate justice, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, corporate supply chains, demand-side solutions, ecology, economics, education, environment, false advertising, finance, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, global warming, greenwashing, grid defection, insurance, investing, Joseph Schumpeter, liberal climate deniers, local generation, organizational failures, rate of return regulation, rationality, reasonableness, solar domination, Spaceship Earth, stranded assets, sustainability, the right to know, the value of financial assets, zero carbon | Leave a comment

JASA demands code and data be supplied as a condition of publication

The Journal of the American Statistical Association (“JASA”) has announced in this month’s Amstat News that effective 1st September 2016 “… will require code and data as a minimum standard for reproducibility of statistical scientific research.” Trends were heading this … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, citizen science, engineering, ethics, evidence, new forms of scientific peer review, numerical software, planning, rationality, reasonableness, resiliency, science, statistics, stochastic algorithms, testing, the right to know | Leave a comment

Newt Gingrich and Van Jones. Right on.

It’s the thing. And it addresses how media and people forget about the actual statistics, and focus on the White Hot Bright Light. A study by Gelman, Fagan, and Kiss A study by Freyer A counterpoint to the Freyer study … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayes, Bayesian, citizen science, criminal justice, Daniel Kahneman, ethics, evidence, fear uncertainty and doubt, humanism, Lives Matter, logistic regression, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, organizational failures, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, risk, statistics, Susan Jacoby, the right to know | Leave a comment

What makes me nervous

With regard to my comment at hypergeometric | July 13, 2016 at 3:50 pm on Tamino’s blog, someone challenged me on my assertion “Believe me, the +3C-+4C worlds are not places we want to go!” there. I have replied at … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, bifurcations, bollocks, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, complex systems, differential equations, dynamical systems, Eaarth, ecology, environment, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, methane, natural gas, oceanography, Principles of Planetary Climate, Ray Pierrehumbert, science, the problem of evil, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization | 1 Comment

Three stories of solar energy domination: Which outcome would YOU prefer?

(Updated, 2016-07-14) See Shayle Kann’s great piece at GreenTech media. The choices: “Version one: Aimless transformation” “Version two: The balkanized grid” “Version three: Embracing the transformation” In addition to solar PV, wind energy of all forms (especially underutilized local wind … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, biofuels, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, business, Chris Goodall, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, disruption, distributed generation, ecology, Ecology Action, economics, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, environment, fossil fuel divestment, green tech, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, Internet, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Joseph Schumpeter, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, local generation, microgrids, public utility commissions, PUCs, rationality, reasonableness, regime shifts, Sankey diagram, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, stranded assets, the energy of the people, the green century, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | 1 Comment

“What phony op-eds about climate change have in common” (reblog of Tamino’s post)

Originally posted on Open Mind:
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse has published an opinion piece in the Columbia Journalism Review about the “web of denial” a number of senators have turned their focus on this week. It’s so worth reading, I reproduce…

Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, citizen science, citizenship, climate change, climate disruption, Eaarth, environment, global warming, greenwashing, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, Tamino, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Want your democracy back? Take back control of your energy supply

Some progressives lament the loss of Bernie Sanders’ run for President, arguing “we need to get our democracy back.” A necessary step in order to get your democracy back is to take back control of your energy supply. Centralized energy … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, distributed generation, ecology, economics, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy storage, energy utilities, environment, Epcot, extended supply chains, fossil fuel divestment, global warming, green tech, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Joseph Schumpeter, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, liberal climate deniers, local generation, microgrids, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, rationality, reasonableness, Sankey diagram, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Spaceship Earth, the energy of the people, the green century, the right to know, zero carbon | 6 Comments