Monthly Archives: August 2016

NextGen VOICES: `On data’, `On setbacks’, and `On discovery’

Science Magazine has a periodic column called Science in brief and occasionally that column features a set of what they call “NextGen VOICES”, meaning young scientists. They gather the survey using Twitter (of course) via the hashtag #NextGenSci. For the … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, big data, data science, evidence, Mathbabe, maths, maxims, science, Science magazine, smart data, statistics | Leave a comment

`The Future of Energy’

Writing in Newsweek, Kevin Maney talks about the Future of Energy and Elon Musk’s long term plan to kill Big Oil. Hat tip to Peter Sinclair at Climate Denial Crock of the Week where I first found the mention of … Continue reading

Posted in American Solar Energy Society, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, CleanTechnica, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, destructive economic development, disruption, distributed generation, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy utilities, exponential growth, fossil fuel divestment, green tech, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, ILSR, investment in wind and solar energy, John Farrell, Joseph Schumpeter, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, local generation, Michael Osborne, microgrids, public utility commissions, PUCs, regime shifts, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, the energy of the people, the green century, the value of financial assets, utility company death spiral, zero carbon | Leave a comment

“Sharon’s Water Problem” (by Paul Lauenstein)

(Click on image to see a bigger version of this figure. Use your browser Back Button to return to this blog.) The town of Sharon, MA, has a water problem. Click on the link and see Paul’s presentation about it. … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, agriculture, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, Boston, citizen science, climate change, climate disruption, diffusion processes, drought, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, forecasting, global warming, hydrology, Hyper Anthropocene, MA, New England, Paul Lauenstein, precipitation, quantitative ecology, science, statistics, the tragedy of our present civilization, water, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution | Leave a comment

“Getting our heads out of the sand: The facts about sea level rise” (Robert Young)

If current luck holds, North Carolina may well escape the 2013 hurricane season without the widespread damage that has so frequently plagued the fragile coastal region in recent years. Unfortunately, this brief respite is almost certainly only that — a … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, Boston, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, coastal communities, coasts, ecology, environment, evidence, global warming, hurricanes, Hyper Anthropocene, living shorelines, Massachusetts, National Park Service, New England, nor'easters, oceanography, quantitative ecology, risk, Robert Young, science, sea level rise, shorelines, spatial statistics, sustainability, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets | 1 Comment

Time to turn page on natural gas – CommonWealth Magazine

Plugging In Plugging In Energy and the Environment Gas pipeline firm says it’s full-speed ahead By John Flynn, Lee Olivier and Bill YardleySee all » Plugging In Plugging In Energy and the Environment SJC nixes ‘pipeline tax’ By Bruce MohlSee … Continue reading

Posted in Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to nowhere, Carbon Worshipers, climate economics, explosive methane, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, fracking, greenhouse gases, natural gas | Leave a comment

Eversource withdraws from the Spectra-Algonquin “Access Northeast” pipeline project

(Click on image to see a bigger copy. Use browser Back Button to return to blog.) Yes! Now let’s hope the remaining customers for Spectra’s Access Northeast pull out, and FERC denies permission to proceed. Their next meeting is 22nd … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, destructive economic development, disruption, distributed generation, electricity markets, energy utilities, FERC, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, fracking, gas pipeline leaks, global warming, greenhouse gases, grid defection, Hyper Anthropocene, ISO-NE, Joseph Schumpeter, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, local generation, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Massachusetts Interfaith Coalition for Climate Action, New England, pipelines, politics, public utility commissions, PUCs, regime shifts, regulatory capture, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, utility company death spiral | Leave a comment

“Naïve empiricism and what theory suggests about errors in observed global warming”

A post from one of my favorite statistics-oriented bloggers, Variable Variability, dealing with a subject too casually passed over. See Naïve empiricism and what theory suggests about errors in observed global warming.

Posted in Anthropocene, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, confirmation bias, geophysics, rationality, statistics, time series, Variable Variability, Victor Venema | Leave a comment

“Understanding Climate Change with Bill Nye”, on Dr Neil deGrasse Tyson’s “Star Talk”

Bill Nye hosts Dr Neil deGrasse Tyson‘s Star Talk Radio, featuring climate change and NASA’s Dr Gavin Schmidt. (See also RealClimate.)

Posted in Anthropocene, astrophysics, Bill Nye, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, Eaarth, ecology, environment, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Neill deGrasse Tyson | Leave a comment

ECS2x, land, sea, and all that

from http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1203513 P.S. I wrote more here. Reproduced below … Practical likelihood functions are very flat-topped, so the idea that a maximum likelihood function (MLE) can be confined to a point is a theoretical mirage. See Chapter 3 of S. … Continue reading

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A litany of climate depression

Climate Scientists Are Dealing With Psychological Problems Climate depression is for real. Just ask a scientist Scientists are depressed about what’s coming next for our planet Amid Stark Realities, How Do Climate Scientists ‘Stay Positive?’ (About Jason Box and others) … Continue reading

Posted in American Meteorological Association, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, Eaarth, ecology, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hermann Scheer | Leave a comment

“Disrupt climate disruption”

From Science Music Videos … And if you have the time, a 52 minute movie … Power concedes nothing without a demand. “No leader is coming to save us [from climate disruption].”

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, bollocks, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, Daniel Kahneman, denial, dynamical systems, Eaarth, ecology, Ecology Action, Gaylord Nelson, George Monbiot, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, Joseph Schumpeter, liberal climate deniers, moral leadership, Our Children's Trust, regime shifts, science, Spaceship Earth, stranded assets, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Carbon Sinks in Crisis — It Looks Like the World’s Largest Rainforest is Starting to Bleed Greenhouse Gasses

Originally posted on robertscribbler:
Back in 2005, and again in 2010, the vast Amazon rainforest, which has been aptly described as the world’s lungs, briefly lost its ability to take in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Its drought-stressed trees were not growing…

Posted in bifurcations, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide sequestration, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate disruption, disruption, dynamical systems, environment, exponential growth, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, IPCC, Lévy flights, Lorenz, Minsky moment, model-free forecasting, physics, population biology, population dynamics, Principles of Planetary Climate, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, random walk processes, Ray Pierrehumbert, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, risk, Stefan Rahmstorf, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, UU Humanists | 2 Comments

An Energy Revolution

Professor Mara Prentiss speaks at Harvard on the possibility of an “energy revolution”: Update, 2016-08-16 Although I am not a PhD professor like Professor Prentiss, nor am I associated with an institution as esteemed as Harvard University, I disagree with … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, disruption, distributed generation, ecology, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, fossil fuel divestment, global warming, green tech, greenhouse gases, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, Joseph Schumpeter, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Mark Jacobson, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Michael Osborne, microgrids, public utility commissions, PUCs, Sankey diagram, smart data, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, stranded assets, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Can the City of Boston adapt to and help mitigate climate disruption?

(See the major update at the bottom of this post as well.) (On “Less Science and More Social Science” at And Then There’s Physics) And Then There’s Physics is one of my favorite blogs discussing climate disruption and related policy … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bill Nye, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bollocks, Boston, bridge to somewhere, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate business, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, climate justice, Daniel Kahneman, destructive economic development, economics, engineering, environment, finance, floods, forecasting, Gaylord Nelson, global warming, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, insurance, investing, John Englander, Joseph Schumpeter, Kerry Emanuel, MA, Massachusetts, meteorology, Minsky moment, nor'easters, organizational failures, politics, risk, sea level rise, sociology, statistics, supply chains, sustainability, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets | 6 Comments

Repaired R code for Markov spatial simulation of hurricane tracks from historical trajectories

I’m currently studying random walk and diffusion processes and their connections with random fields. I’m interested in this because at the core of dynamic linear models, Kalman filters, and state-space methods there is a random walk in a parameter space. … Continue reading

Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Arthur Charpentier, atmosphere, diffusion, diffusion processes, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, geophysics, hurricanes, Kalman filter, Kerry Emanuel, Lévy flights, Lorenz, Markov chain random fields, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, MCMC, mesh models, meteorological models, meteorology, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical analysis, numerical software, oceanography, open data, open source scientific software, physics, random walk processes, random walks, science, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, time series | Leave a comment

Living deliberately in Washington, D.C. (courtesy of The Atlantic magazine)

The adventures of Keya Chatterjee and her family living free of Pepco. Courtesy of The Atlantic magazine.

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, disruption, distributed generation, Ecology Action, economics, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy reduction, energy utilities, fossil fuel divestment, global warming, grid defection, Hyper Anthropocene, ice sheet dynamics, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, microgrids, public transport, public utility commissions, PUCs, resiliency, Sankey diagram, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, the energy of the people, the green century, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Energy Democracy

I’ve actually written about this before, but John Farrell of the ILSR (“Institute for Local Self-Reliance” a famous Emerson essay, by the way) presents an up-to-date synthesis of developments, incorporating policy as well as Tony Seba-like, Hermann Scheer-like, and Michael … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, citizenship, clean disruption, CleanTechnica, climate economics, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, distributed generation, economics, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, evidence, extended supply chains, feed-in tariff, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, green tech, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, ILSR, investment in wind and solar energy, John Farrell, Joseph Schumpeter, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, liberal climate deniers, life purpose, local generation, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Michael Osborne, microgrids, open data, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, regulatory capture, risk, Sankey diagram, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Spaceship Earth, spatial statistics, statistics, stranded assets, sustainability, temporal myopia, the energy of the people, the green century, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | 1 Comment

“Holy crap – an actual book!”

Originally posted on mathbabe:
Yo, everyone! The final version of my book now exists, and I have exactly one copy! Here’s my editor, Amanda Cook, holding it yesterday when we met for beers: Here’s my son holding it: He’s offered…

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, Buckminster Fuller, business, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, complex systems, confirmation bias, data science, data streams, deep recurrent neural networks, denial, economics, education, engineering, ethics, evidence, Internet, investing, life purpose, machine learning, mathematical publishing, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, moral leadership, multivariate statistics, numerical software, numerics, obfuscating data, organizational failures, politics, population biology, prediction, prediction markets, privacy, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reason, reasonableness, rhetoric, risk, Schnabel census, smart data, sociology, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the value of financial assets, transparency, UU Humanists | Leave a comment

Dramatis personæ: How to do zero Carbon emissions at a residence (Westwood, MA)

(To see a larger picture for this and all images, click on image and then use browser Back Button to return to blog.) Our external meter is now reading negative. Peak was 2850 in April 2016. Solar panels were grid … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, citizenship, clean disruption, climate business, climate disruption, climate economics, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy utilities, fossil fuel divestment, global warming, green tech, grid defection, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, local generation, Mark Jacobson, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Michael Osborne, microgrids, New England, open data, regime shifts, RevoluSun, Sankey diagram, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, SunPower, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | 9 Comments

TOO LATE: “There will be no golden age of [natural] gas”

Last month, Tom Randall at Bloomberg New Energy Finance (“BNEF”) profiled a new forecast which shows costs for zero Carbon energy and energy are plummetting so fast that coal, oil, and natural gas will begin their terminal decline within a … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, American Petroleum Institute, Anthropocene, Bloomberg, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, Chevron, citizenship, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate justice, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, disruption, distributed generation, Ecology Action, economics, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, explosive methane, Exxon, false advertising, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, fracking, geoengineering, global warming, green tech, greenhouse gases, grid defection, Gulf Oil, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Joseph Schumpeter, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, methane, microgrids, natural gas, petroleum, pipelines, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, risk, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Standard Oil of California, stranded assets, supply chains, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the stack of lies, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, utility company death spiral, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | 2 Comments

A model of an electrical grid: A vision

Many people seem to view the electrical grid of the future being much like the present one. I think a lot about networks, because of my job. And I especially think a lot about network topologies, although primarily concerning the … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Meteorological Association, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, Boston, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, Canettes Blues Band, clean disruption, climate business, climate economics, complex systems, corporate supply chains, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, differential equations, distributed generation, efficiency, EIA, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, extended supply chains, green tech, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Kalman filter, kriging, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Lenny Smith, local generation, marginal energy sources, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, mesh models, meteorology, microgrids, networks, New England, New York State, open data, organizational failures, pipelines, planning, prediction markets, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, regulatory capture, resiliency, risk, Sankey diagram, smart data, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, stranded assets, supply chains, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the value of financial assets, thermodynamics, time series, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wave equations, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Bayesian blocks via PELT in R

The Bayesian blocks algorithm of Scargle, Jackson, Norris, and Chiang has an enthusiastic user community in astrostatistics, in data mining, and among some in machine learning. It is a dynamic programming algorithm (see VanderPlas referenced below) and, so, exhibits optimality … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, astrophysics, Cauchy distribution, changepoint detection, engineering, geophysics, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, oceanography, population biology, population dynamics, Python 3, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, Scargle, spatial statistics, square wave approximation, statistics, stepwise approximation, time series, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution | Leave a comment