### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- American Statistical Association
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Mertonian norms
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- All about models
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Risk and Well-Being
- Slice Sampling
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Label Noise
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Professor David Draper
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Gavin Simpson
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- London Review of Books
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach

### climate change

- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Social Cost of Carbon
- RealClimate
- And Then There's Physics
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- SolarLove
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Ice and Snow
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Simple models of climate change
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: dependent data

## Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths *with uncertainties*

I. Introduction. It’s time to fulfill the promise made in “Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths“, a blog post from 2nd May 2020, and produce the same with uncertainty clouds about the functional trajectories(*). To begin, here are some assumptions … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Harvey, anomaly detection, count data regression, COVID-19, dependent data, dlm package, Durbin and Koopman, dynamic linear models, epidemiology, filtering, forecasting, Kalman filter, LaTeX, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical algorithms, numerical linear algebra, population biology, population dynamics, prediction, R, R statistical programming language, regression, statistical learning, stochastic algorithms
Tagged prediction intervals
Leave a comment

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
Leave a comment

## Procrustes tangent distance is better than SNCD

I’ve written two posts here on using a Symmetrized Normalized Compression Divergence or SNCD for comparing time series. One introduced the SNCD and described its relationship to compression distance, and the other applied the SNCD to clustering days at a … Continue reading

Posted in data science, dependent data, descriptive statistics, divergence measures, hydrology, Ian Dryden, information theoretic statistics, J.T.Kent, Kanti Mardia, non-parametric statistics, normalized compression divergence, quantitative ecology, R statistical programming language, spatial statistics, statistical series, time series
Leave a comment

## Stream flow and P-splines: Using built-in estimates for smoothing

Mother Brook in Dedham Massachusetts was the first man-made canal in the United States. Dug in 1639, it connects the Charles River at Dedham, to the Neponset River in the Hyde Park section of Boston. It was originally an important … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, citizen data, citizen science, Clausius-Clapeyron equation, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, cross-validation, data science, dependent data, descriptive statistics, dynamic linear models, empirical likelihood, environment, flooding, floods, Grant Foster, hydrology, likelihood-free, meteorological models, model-free forecasting, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, precipitation, quantitative ecology, statistical dependence, statistical series, stream flow, Tamino, the bootstrap, time series, water vapor
2 Comments

## Less evidence for a global warming hiatus, and urging more use of Bayesian model averaging in climate science

(This post has been significantly updated midday 15th February 2018.) I’ve written about the supposed global warming hiatus of 2001-2014 before: “‘Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years’ (Fyfe, Gillett, Zwiers, 2013)”, 28 August 2013 “Warming Slowdown?”, Azimuth, Part … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Parnell, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bayesian, Bayesian model averaging, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, climate change, David Spiegelhalter, dependent data, Dublin, GISTEMP, global warming, Grant Foster, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, JAGS, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, MCMC, model-free forecasting, Niamh Cahill, Significance, statistics, Stefan Rahmstorf, Tamino
2 Comments

## What are the odds of net zero?

What’s the Question? A question was posed by a colleague a couple of months ago: What are the odds of a stock closing at the same price it opened? I found the question interesting, because, at first, it appeared to … Continue reading

## `Letter to Lamar Smith’

On Ed Hawkins’ blog. The Committee on Science, Space & Technology of the US House of Representatives conducts regular evidence hearings on various science topics. On Wednesday 29th March, there is a hearing on “Climate science: assumptions, policy implications, and … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anemic data, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Ben Santer, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, Climate Lab Book, climate zombies, dependent data, environment, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, meteorology, MIchael Mann, Our Children's Trust, physics, science, smoothing, statistical dependence, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, time series
Leave a comment