667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
Skip to content
  • Home
  • About

Tag Archives: dichotomising continuous variables

A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

Posted on 11 September 2018 by ecoquant

The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading →

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics | Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • Awkward Botany
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • American Statistical Association
    • What If
    • Label Noise
    • "The Expert"
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • London Review of Books
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Gabriel's staircase
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
  • climate change

    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • weather blocking patterns
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Reanalyses.org
    • Sea Change Boston
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Simple models of climate change
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • World Weather Attribution
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • And Then There's Physics
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
  • Archives

  • Jan Galkowski

    • ecoquant
  • Blog Stats

    • 92,524 hits
  • Recent Posts

    • Adobe Lightroom for scientific photos 1 December 2021
    • Stranded Assets Nightmare 29 November 2021
    • Botkin’s Discordant Harmonies, a comment 28 November 2021
    • ‘Keystone Pipeline Developers Seek $15 Billion From U.S. for Cancellation’ 23 November 2021
    • My favorite presentation on climate disruption these days 23 November 2021
    • Photo of the week: Repeatedly distressed Mnium hornum 19 November 2021
    • Gee, if all maths classes were like this, they’d be exhausting … 18 November 2021
    • “Aggregating the harms of fossil fuels” 17 November 2021
    • Awesome. 17 November 2021
    • Price the Roads 16 November 2021
    • Fecklessness 15 November 2021
    • COP26, rest in agony 14 November 2021
    • David Wallace Wells …The Uninhabitable Earth and its implications 13 November 2021
    • Climate Music Break : Signs of Life 13 November 2021
    • Don’t like high or volatile petrol prices? Get an EV to replace your gas-guzzling thang 13 November 2021
    • Clearly not consumption based … but, well … 12 November 2021
    • We are living through the closing door of climate targets 12 November 2021
    • Sunday’s Storms Made Gas More Expensive, Thanks To Yet More East Bay Refinery Flare-Ups 11 November 2021
    • All about net ZERO 10 November 2021
    • Words from Mother Jones 9 November 2021
    • Well, brevity in argument is not something to be expected from training at new, Palantir-supported University of Austin 8 November 2021
    • ‘Will Ford do away with the dealer model?’ 8 November 2021
    • Hydrogen production from curtailed generation 8 November 2021
    • Losing sight of the big picture 8 November 2021
    • Stuart Stevens: Covid a Stress Test, and So Far We’re Failing 7 November 2021
    • The Truth about Sea Level Rise 2 November 2021
    • Climate Music Break: Pink Floyd, David Bowie, Comfortably Numb 2 November 2021
    • Welcome to your future 1 November 2021
    • “They are liars … You can have the best capitalism in the world, but if people are dead, they’re dead. It’s over.” 1 November 2021
    • “I have given up. I am here to talk about the science.” 1 November 2021
    • “How should children learn about climate change?” 30 October 2021
    • Future liability for fossil fuel energy producers and conveyors 29 October 2021
    • Comment on “Federal policy can drive the solar industry… but still may fall short” 28 October 2021
    • Yeah, like many aspects of the biosphere, forests and their contribution to sequestering Carbon is complicated 21 October 2021
    • Dr Gilbz 20 October 2021
    • In the field 19 October 2021
    • Climate Facts from James Hansen and Makiko Sato Ahead of COP26 14 October 2021
    • An Open Letter from U.S. Scientists Imploring President Biden to End the Fossil Fuel Era 9 October 2021
    • “It’s the exact opposite.” 7 October 2021
    • Rationale for XR, short term 5 October 2021
    • “I don’t want my grandchildren to suffer” XR 5 October 2021
    • Stopping climate disruption and eating cookies 5 October 2021
    • Myths 5 October 2021
    • Stephen Fry on XR 5 October 2021
    • A very recent Bill McKibben on Where We Are 1 October 2021
    • “A political dynamic …” 1 October 2021
    • Meet Solkjøring 28 September 2021
    • Greta, YouthCOP, 2021 28 September 2021
    • First Contact, and the Long Now Foundation 26 September 2021
    • Vineyard Sound, Rhode Island Sound, August, 2021 17 September 2021
  • Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

    Join 132 other subscribers
  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
Create a website or blog at WordPress.com
  • Follow Following
    • 667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
    • Join 132 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • 667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar
 

Loading Comments...