(Update 2018 November 25)
There’s a slew of bad news which has hit the scientific journals, the most notable being
L. Resplandy, R. F. Keeling, Y. Eddebbar, M. K. Brooks, R. Wang, L. Bopp, M. C. Long, J. P. Dunne, W. Koeve, A. Oschlies, “Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition“, Nature, 2018, 563(7729), 105–108.
Dr Jim White puts this in context. Pay attention to what he says about what the long run temperature record says about how quickly temperatures can change, in either direction.
Addendum, 2018-11-01, 23:46 EDT
LA Times coverage of the subject. I like the quote,
Still, the system’s large number of direct measurements means any individual errors are averaged out, said Pelle Robbins, a researcher with the Massachusetts-based Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s department of physical oceanography, who works with the Argo program.
“The power of Argo is that we have so many instruments that we’re not reliant on any one of them,” he said. “When you average over things, you beat down the error.”
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Robbins said the new approach is “bold,” but he still believes strongly in the accuracy of the Argo program.“It’s an intriguing new clue,” he said, “but it’s certainly not the case that this study alone suggests that we have been systematically under-representing the oceanic warming.”
Resplandy said her discovery is not intended to replace the Argo system but rather to compliment it. “In science, we want several methods to measure things, to have several methods that converge.”
(Emphasis added in bold.)
Also, from the same article, there’s the assessment:
The new report found that emissions levels in coming decades would need to be 25% lower than laid out by the IPCC to keep warming under that 2 degree cap.
Addendum, 2018-11-02, 11:19 EDT
It’s like I just can’t put this post down. Facts are that once the Resplandy, et al (2018) paper appeared, research in to works, interviews with climate scientists, and other observations are percolating up, and we are seeing the beginning of what Dr Neil deGrasse Tyson calls an “emerging scientific truth”, that warming is not only much larger than estimated, it is accelerating. Consider this interview with Dr Lijing Cheng:
Yale Climate Connections summarized a spectrum of increasing risk, and quotes Dr White as well.
Resplandy, Keeling, et al have another article in Nature which more directly addresses the Carbon budget question. They infer that estimated land and ocean sinks are not as large as previously estimated. This is something which has been suspected by scientists at the Global Carbon Project, but this is the first solid quantitative indication.
Note that despite the error in calculating uncertainty in Resplandy, et al, the basic conclusion remains intact.
And, then, there’s the report from National Climate Assessment 4:
I should note that I, with my wife, Claire, am a strong financial supporter of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), through their 1930 Society and their Fye Society.
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