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Category Archives: Amory Lovins

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The Myth of Baseload Power (Amory Lovins)

Posted on 8 July 2017 by ecoquant
Posted in Amory Lovins, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, Buckminster Fuller, capitalism, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, design science, distributed generation, economics, energy efficiency, energy reduction, environment, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, ILSR, integrative design, John Farrell, Joseph Schumpeter, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, local generation, local self reliance, microgrids, petroleum, reasonableness, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the right to know, utility company death spiral, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | 1 Comment
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  • Blogroll

    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Earle Wilson
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
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    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • London Review of Books
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Ted Dunning
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
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    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
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    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
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    • Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
  • climate change

    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • SolarLove
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • weather blocking patterns
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Earth System Models
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Ice and Snow
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • And Then There's Physics
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • World Weather Attribution
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • Reanalyses.org
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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