Author Archives: ecoquant

About ecoquant

See http://www.linkedin.com/in/deepdevelopment/ and https://667-per-cm.net/about

COVID-19 statistics, a caveat : Sources of data matter

There are a number of sources of COVID-19-related demographics, cases, deaths, numbers testing positive, numbers recovered, and numbers testing negative available. Many of these are not consistent with one another. One could hope at least rates would be consistent, but … Continue reading

Posted in coronavirus, count data regression, COVID-19, descriptive statistics, epidemiology, pandemic, policy metrics, politics, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, sampling, SARS-CoV-2, statistical ecology, statistical series, statistics | Leave a comment

First substantial mechanism for long term immunity from SARS-CoV-2 : T-cells

M. Leslie, “T cells found in COVID-19 patients ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity“, Science, doi:10.1126/science.abc8120. A. Grifoni, et al, “Targets of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in humans with COVID-19 disease and unexposed individuals“, Cell, 14th May 2020. J. … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, coronavirus, COVID-19, epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2 | Tagged | Leave a comment

Larkin Poe: “Southern Cross” cover, from CSNY (and extras)

(Theme from Wallender.)

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Dissection of the Dr Judy Mikovits’ claims in AAAS Science

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/fact-checking-judy-mikovits-controversial-virologist-attacking-anthony-fauci-viral h/t Dr Katharine Hayhoe @LinkedIn The Chronic Fatigue Syndrome retraction notice. Excerpt: Science asked Mikovits for an interview for this article. She responded by sending an empty email with, as attachments, a copy of her new book and a … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, coronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, science, Science magazine | Leave a comment

We are all Mathematicians

Bobby Seagull. Great.

Posted in mathematics, mathematics education, maths | Leave a comment

“There’s mourning in America”

“We are Republicans and we want Trump defeated.” And the Orange Mango apparently hates this advert. And that’s why it’s here. The Lincoln Project apparently introduced this advert on Twitter with the explanatory text: Since you are awake and trolling … Continue reading

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“Seasonality of COVID-19, Other Coronaviruses, and Influenza” (from Radford Neal’s blog)

Thorough review with documentation and technical criticism of claims of COVID-19 seasonality or its lack. Whichever way this comes down, the links are well worth the visit! Will the incidence of COVID-19 decrease in the summer? There is reason to … Continue reading

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Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths

There are many ways of presenting analytical summaries of new series data for which the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. With respect to series describing the COVID-19 pandemic, Tamino has used piecewise linear models. I have mentioned how I prefered … Continue reading

Posted in coronavirus, COVID-19, functional data analysis, pandemic, penalized spline regression, phase plane plot, SARS-CoV-2, splines | 11 Comments

A SimCity for the Climate

SimCity is/was a classic simulation game teaching basics of public policy, energy management, and environmental regulation. My kids played it a lot. Heck, I played it a lot. Now, Climate Interactive, Tom Fiddaman of Ventana Systems, Prof John Sterman of … Continue reading

Posted in Bloomberg, Bloomberg Green, climate activism, climate business, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, Climate Interactive, climate models, climate policy, global warming, science | Leave a comment

Simplistic and Dangerous Models

Originally posted on Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology:
A few weeks ago there were none. Three weeks ago, with an entirely inadequate search strategy, ten cases were found. Last Saturday there were 43! With three inaccurate data points, there is enough information…

Posted in Generalized Additive Models, non-parametric statistics, science, statistics | Leave a comment
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Major Ocean Currents Drifting Polewards

Living on Earth, the environmental news program of Public Radio, featured Amy Bower, Senior Scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, on 27th March 2020 to discuss new research from the Alfred Wegener Institute showing that major ocean currents are drifting … Continue reading

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Keep fossil fuels in the ground

Ah, wouldn’t it be lovely!? Is this the beginning of the Minsky Moment Mark Carney has feared? In short, that was because the trading markets had not priced in (a) the risks from climate change, and (b) the risks from … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, being carbon dioxide, catastrophe modeling, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate policy, Cult of Carbon, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, Mark Carney, Minsky moment | Leave a comment

“Lockdown WORKS”

Originally posted on Open Mind:
Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot) As bad as that news is,…

Posted in forecasting, penalized spline regression, science, splines, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, time series | 1 Comment

“coronavirus counts do not count”

via coronavirus counts do not count

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Cloud brightening hits a salty snag

The proposal known as solar radiation management is complicated. It just got moreso. Released Wednesday: Fossum, K.N., Ovadnevaite, J., Ceburnis, D. et al. “Sea-spray regulates sulfate cloud droplet activation over oceans“, Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3(14): (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0116-2 [open access] … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, atmosphere, being carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide, chemistry, climate disruption, climate mitigation, climate nightmares, climate policy, cloud brightening, ecomodernism, emissions, geoengineering, global warming, Ken Caldeira, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, meteorological models, meteorology, mitigating climate disruption, NASA, National Center for Atmospheric Research, oceanography, Principles of Planetary Climate, Ray Pierrehumbert, risk, solar radiation management, sustainability, Wally Broecker, water vapor, wishful environmentalism, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Machiavelli

It’s right out of Machiavelli’s The Prince. #covid_19 #coronavirus Even for the Trump administration, it is odd they are pushing #Hydroxychloroquine and #Azithromycin so hard, against medical advice and evidence. I’ve thought about this and, given the growing animosity between … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, anti-science, coronavirus, COVID-19, Machiavelli, SARS-CoV-2 | Leave a comment

Oldie and Goodie: `Testing a point Null Hypothesis: The irreconcilability of p-values and evidence’

A blog post by Professor Christian Robert mentioned a paper by Professors James Berger and Tom Sellke, which I downloaded several years back but never got around to reading. J. O. Berger, T. M. Sellke, “Testing a point Null Hypothesis: … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayes, Bayesian, p-value | Leave a comment

Virgin

These are some of the reasons why I am a dedicated Virgin customer, including my most recent trip on Virgin Atlantic to London, 26th February to 3rd March 2020. Richard Branson’s response to the global crisis. Virgin Atlantic supports NHS … Continue reading

Posted in aircraft, biofuels, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, flying, sustainability, Virgin, zero carbon | Leave a comment

“Social Distancing Works”

Originally posted on Open Mind:
First, the bad news. The death toll from Coronavirus in the U.S.A. stands at 4,059, and more alarming is the fact that yesterday brought nearly a thousand deaths in a single day. The numbers keep…

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New COVID-19 incidence in the United States as AR(1) processes

There are several sources of information regarding Covid-19 incidence now available. This post uses data from a single source: the COVID Tracking Project. In particular I restrict attention to cumulative daily case counts for the United States, the UK, and … Continue reading

Posted in coronavirus, COVID-19, epidemiology, pandemic, regression, SARS-CoV-2 | Leave a comment

What happens when time sampling density of a series matches its growth

This is the newly updated map of COVID-19 cases in the United States, updated, presumably, because of the new emphasis upon testing: How do we know this is the recent of recent testing? Look at the map of active cases: … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, climate denial, corruption, data science, data visualization, Donald Trump, dump Trump, epidemiology, experimental science, exponential growth, forecasting, Kalman filter, model-free forecasting, nonlinear systems, open data, penalized spline regression, population dynamics, sampling algorithms, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, sustainability, the right to know, the stack of lies | 1 Comment

Meteorological Spring, and the Atlantic’s primary producers are jumping the phenological gun

Primary producers These are from NASA’s Aqua-MODIS, meaning, Aqua satellite, MODIS instrument: (Click image to see a larger figure.) (Click image to see a larger figure.) (h/t Earth Observatory at NASA) See my related blog post. And, note, it’s all … Continue reading

Posted in NASA, oceans, phenology, plankton, population biology, population dynamics, primary productivity | Leave a comment

R ecosystem package coronavirus

Dr Rami Krispin of the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CCSE) has just released the R package coronavirus, which “provides a daily summary of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases by state/province“, caused by 2019-nCoV. (update 2020-03-12 … Continue reading

Posted in data presentation, data science, epidemiology | 1 Comment

Curiosity`s recent view of Mars

“NASA Curiosity Project Scientist Ashwin Vasavada guides this tour of the rover’s view of the Martian surface.” With a little imagination, feels like a de-vegetated version of the Northern Coastal Ranges of California, looking inland.

Posted in Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NASA | Leave a comment

Mike Bloomberg 2020: Climate Warrior

Mike will immediately make tackling climate change one of his highest priorities by leading a nationwide push to rebuild American communities and infrastructure with 100% clean energy technology, reducing carbon pollution 50% by 2030. He will propel the U.S. toward … Continue reading

Posted in Bloomberg, climate, climate activism, climate disruption, climate economics, global warming, zero carbon | Leave a comment

“Code for causal inference: Interested in astronomical applications”

via Code for causal inference: Interested in astronomical applications From Professor Ewan Cameron at his Another Astrostatistics Blog.

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Reanalysis of business visits from deployments of a mobile phone app

This reports a reanalysis of data from the deployment of a mobile phone app, as reported in: M. Yauck, L.-P. Rivest, G. Rothman, “Capture-recapture methods for data on the activation of applications on mobile phones“, Journal of the American Statistical … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian computational methods, biology, capture-mark-recapture, capture-recapture, Christian Robert, count data regression, cumulants, diffusion, diffusion processes, Ecological Society of America, ecology, epidemiology, experimental science, field research, Gibbs Sampling, Internet measurement, Jean-Michel Marin, linear regression, mark-recapture, mathematics, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multilist methods, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerics, open source scientific software, Pierre-Simon Laplace, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, R statistical programming language, sampling, sampling algorithms, segmented package in R, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, stepwise approximation, stochastic algorithms, surveys, V. M. R. Muggeo | Leave a comment

“The truly common core”

Repost of “The truly common core“, from Ben Orlin‘s Math with Bad Drawings blog. https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2020/02/19/uncommon-core-standards/

Posted in education, mathematics, mathematics education, maths | Leave a comment

Another kind of latent data: That encoded in journal and report figures

Many scholars today expect to find data as datasets. When I took some courses in Geology at Binghamton University, specifically in Tectonics and Paleomagnetism, I learned that libraries serves, in many cases, as Geologists’ repositories of data. No, the libraries … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Chemical Society, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, experimental science | Leave a comment