Author Archives: ecoquant

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Isaias and Oak Island, NC

h/t to Professor Rob Young, Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines at Western Carolina University, via LinkedIn.

Posted in coastal communities, coastal investment risks, coasts, hurricanes, Robert Young, shorelines | Leave a comment

Got ya!

Non-Tesla drivers seem not to know (or care?) that because of the capability to do self-driving, all Teslas have a constellation of cameras all about the vehicle. These not only operate while driving, they also monitor activity about Teslas when … Continue reading

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“Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions”

J. Dehning et al., Science 369, eabb9789 (2020). DOI: 10.1126/science.abb9789 Source code and data. Note: This is not a classical approach to assessing strength of interventions using either counterfactuals or other kinds of causal inference. Accordingly, the argument for the … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, causal inference, causation, changepoint detection, coronavirus, counterfactuals, COVID-19, epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2, state-space models, statistical series, time series | Leave a comment

Larkin Poe Interview


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Indiara Safir: “Amazing Grace”, “Carlos & Maria”, “Time”

Posted in Blues, Indiara Safir | Leave a comment

Political and demographic associations with changes in COVID-19 rates at the tails

A few days ago, I wrote a post about poltical and demographic associations with changes in COVID-19 rates over all U.S. counties. Today, I’m augmenting that. For here, rather than considering all counties, I limited the study to counties with … Continue reading

Posted in Five Thirty Eight, Tamino | Leave a comment

Rationalists, wearing square hats, Think, in square rooms, Looking at the floor, Looking at the ceiling. They confine themselves To right-angled triangles. If they tried rhomboids, Cones, waving lines, ellipses– As, for example, the ellipse of the half- moon– Rationalists … Continue reading

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So, today, a diversion …

(Updated 2020-07-06, see end.) So, today I report on a diversion. This is a bit off the beaten path for me. It resulted from an “I wonder” comment by Rob Honeycutt at Tamino‘s “Open Mind” blog, this time offering a … Continue reading

Posted in Five Thirty Eight, Tamino | 1 Comment

Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One way is to push them into a place of improbable application, asking … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series | Leave a comment

Great podcast: “Confronting uncertainty with Tamsin Edwards”

Dr Tamsin Edwards visits Professor David Spiegelhalter on his “Risky Talk” podcast. Dr Edwards is a climate scientist with the title Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography at Kings College, London. There’s much good talk about climate and its associated uncertainties, … Continue reading

Posted in alternatives to the Green New Deal, American Association for the Advancement of Science, climate change, climate denial, climate education, climate policy, climate science, David Spiegelhalter, dynamical systems, fluid dynamics, games of chance, global warming, global weirding, IPCC, model comparison, risk, Risky Talk, statistical models, statistical series | Leave a comment

Larkin Poe

Awesome. #larkinpoe

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COVID-19 statistics, a caveat : Sources of data matter

There are a number of sources of COVID-19-related demographics, cases, deaths, numbers testing positive, numbers recovered, and numbers testing negative available. Many of these are not consistent with one another. One could hope at least rates would be consistent, but … Continue reading

Posted in coronavirus, count data regression, COVID-19, descriptive statistics, epidemiology, pandemic, policy metrics, politics, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, sampling, SARS-CoV-2, statistical ecology, statistical series, statistics | 1 Comment

First substantial mechanism for long term immunity from SARS-CoV-2 : T-cells

M. Leslie, “T cells found in COVID-19 patients ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity“, Science, doi:10.1126/science.abc8120. A. Grifoni, et al, “Targets of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in humans with COVID-19 disease and unexposed individuals“, Cell, 14th May 2020. J. … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, coronavirus, COVID-19, epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2 | Tagged | Leave a comment

Larkin Poe: “Southern Cross” cover, from CSNY (and extras)

(Theme from Wallender.)

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Dissection of the Dr Judy Mikovits’ claims in AAAS Science h/t Dr Katharine Hayhoe @LinkedIn The Chronic Fatigue Syndrome retraction notice. Excerpt: Science asked Mikovits for an interview for this article. She responded by sending an empty email with, as attachments, a copy of her new book and a … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, coronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, science, Science magazine | 3 Comments

We are all Mathematicians

Bobby Seagull. Great.

Posted in mathematics, mathematics education, maths | Leave a comment

“There’s mourning in America”

“We are Republicans and we want Trump defeated.” And the Orange Mango apparently hates this advert. And that’s why it’s here. The Lincoln Project apparently introduced this advert on Twitter with the explanatory text: Since you are awake and trolling … Continue reading

Posted in statistics | Leave a comment

“Seasonality of COVID-19, Other Coronaviruses, and Influenza” (from Radford Neal’s blog)

Thorough review with documentation and technical criticism of claims of COVID-19 seasonality or its lack. Whichever way this comes down, the links are well worth the visit! Will the incidence of COVID-19 decrease in the summer? There is reason to … Continue reading

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Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths

There are many ways of presenting analytical summaries of new series data for which the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. With respect to series describing the COVID-19 pandemic, Tamino has used piecewise linear models. I have mentioned how I prefered … Continue reading

Posted in coronavirus, COVID-19, functional data analysis, pandemic, penalized spline regression, phase plane plot, SARS-CoV-2, splines | 12 Comments

A SimCity for the Climate

SimCity is/was a classic simulation game teaching basics of public policy, energy management, and environmental regulation. My kids played it a lot. Heck, I played it a lot. Now, Climate Interactive, Tom Fiddaman of Ventana Systems, Prof John Sterman of … Continue reading

Posted in Bloomberg, Bloomberg Green, climate activism, climate business, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, Climate Interactive, climate models, climate policy, global warming, science | Leave a comment

Simplistic and Dangerous Models

Originally posted on Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology:
A few weeks ago there were none. Three weeks ago, with an entirely inadequate search strategy, ten cases were found. Last Saturday there were 43! With three inaccurate data points, there is enough information…

Posted in Generalized Additive Models, non-parametric statistics, science, statistics | Leave a comment
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Major Ocean Currents Drifting Polewards

Living on Earth, the environmental news program of Public Radio, featured Amy Bower, Senior Scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, on 27th March 2020 to discuss new research from the Alfred Wegener Institute showing that major ocean currents are drifting … Continue reading

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Keep fossil fuels in the ground

Ah, wouldn’t it be lovely!? Is this the beginning of the Minsky Moment Mark Carney has feared? In short, that was because the trading markets had not priced in (a) the risks from climate change, and (b) the risks from … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, being carbon dioxide, catastrophe modeling, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate policy, Cult of Carbon, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, Mark Carney, Minsky moment | Leave a comment

“Lockdown WORKS”

Originally posted on Open Mind:
Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot) As bad as that news is,…

Posted in forecasting, penalized spline regression, science, splines, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, time series | 1 Comment

“coronavirus counts do not count”

via coronavirus counts do not count

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Cloud brightening hits a salty snag

The proposal known as solar radiation management is complicated. It just got moreso. Released Wednesday: Fossum, K.N., Ovadnevaite, J., Ceburnis, D. et al. “Sea-spray regulates sulfate cloud droplet activation over oceans“, Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3(14): (2020). [open access] … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, atmosphere, being carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide, chemistry, climate disruption, climate mitigation, climate nightmares, climate policy, cloud brightening, ecomodernism, emissions, geoengineering, global warming, Ken Caldeira, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, meteorological models, meteorology, mitigating climate disruption, NASA, National Center for Atmospheric Research, oceanography, Principles of Planetary Climate, Ray Pierrehumbert, risk, solar radiation management, sustainability, Wally Broecker, water vapor, wishful environmentalism, zero carbon | Leave a comment


It’s right out of Machiavelli’s The Prince. #covid_19 #coronavirus Even for the Trump administration, it is odd they are pushing #Hydroxychloroquine and #Azithromycin so hard, against medical advice and evidence. I’ve thought about this and, given the growing animosity between … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, anti-science, coronavirus, COVID-19, Machiavelli, SARS-CoV-2 | Leave a comment

Oldie and Goodie: `Testing a point Null Hypothesis: The irreconcilability of p-values and evidence’

A blog post by Professor Christian Robert mentioned a paper by Professors James Berger and Tom Sellke, which I downloaded several years back but never got around to reading. J. O. Berger, T. M. Sellke, “Testing a point Null Hypothesis: … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayes, Bayesian, p-value | Leave a comment