Human Assessment of Risk of Loss

Not knowing a risk is not the same as being safe. If presented with the choice of either losing $500 with 100% certainty, or that of losing $1000 with 50% certainty and $0 with 50% certainty, many if not most people will choose the latter option, even though the outcome has the same expected value. 

The logical response to any real (non-game) situation where a substantial value is at risk is to invest a small portion of that possible loss to learn more about what the actual risks and risk rates are, in order to form a better judgment. 

Beware of arguments that encourage inaction as long as risks are not well known. 

About ecoquant

See Retired data scientist and statistician. Now working projects in quantitative ecology and, specifically, phenology of Bryophyta and technical methods for their study.
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