Human Assessment of Risk of Loss

Not knowing a risk is not the same as being safe. If presented with the choice of either losing $500 with 100% certainty, or that of losing $1000 with 50% certainty and $0 with 50% certainty, many if not most people will choose the latter option, even though the outcome has the same expected value. 

The logical response to any real (non-game) situation where a substantial value is at risk is to invest a small portion of that possible loss to learn more about what the actual risks and risk rates are, in order to form a better judgment. 

Beware of arguments that encourage inaction as long as risks are not well known. 

About hypergeometric

See http://www.linkedin.com/in/deepdevelopment/ and http://667-per-cm.net
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