statistics


(Update, 5 October 2017)

That’s from The Economist.

What’s odd about the rate of increase in size of casualties is that, typically, if a process is stationary and is “typical”, for instance, governed by a Generalized Extreme Value distribution of Type II or Fréchet: You don’t get records broken even at a constant rate. Interarrival times are longer and longer for succeeeding breaks of records. In this case, time between new records is shortening.

The following figures are from:

D. Hemenway, S. J. Solnick, “Children and unintentional firearm death”, Injury Epidemiology, 2(1), 2015 December.

See also:

M. Siegel, C. S. Ross, C. King, III, “The relationship between gun ownership and firearm homicide rates in the United States, 1981–2010”, American Journal of Public Health, 103(11), 2013 November.

Update, 5 October 2017


(Click on figure to see a larger image, and use browser Back Button to return to blog.)

This is what I mean about guns being a public health hazard. And here are some ancillary facts:

Firearm deaths from all causes just about match deaths from motor vehicle per year, about 11 per 100,000 population each.

Drug poisoning deaths, all sources (including opiods) are 16 per 100,000 per year.

Cigarette smoking in all forms, including vape, and including secondhand smoke and affects on kids causes 150 deaths per 100,000 population per year.

There are 13 suicides per year per 100,000 population and of those 7 per year per 100,000 are firearm suicides.

There are 10 homicides per year per 200,000 population. Of those 7 are firearm homicides. Naturally, these include all terrorist attacks, which are completely negligible.

So, yes, smoking causes way more deaths than motor vehicles or firearms. Drug deaths cause a bit more per year. Most firearm deaths are suicides. And firearm deaths as homicides are half of the rate of suicides.

Accordingly, since guns are twice as likely to be used to kill yourself rather than be the device of your demise by someone else, you’re better, all things being equal, not having a gun.

Oh, and don’t smoke.

Childproof safety locks for guns were proposed as far back as Mr D. V. Wesson. Yet 2-4 year olds have the highest rate of firearm deaths for such deaths under 11 y.o. Indeed, firearm deaths are about children killing children. Parents vastly underestimate if and how often their children have handled their guns. U.S. police officers are 30x more likely to be killed by a civilian than an officer in Germany.

It’s possible to make progress on this if it is viewed as the public health problem it is. There is clearly a cultural component. 97% of all child deaths are with a boy holding the gun. It begins by collecting information. 140 pieces of information are collected for each motor vehicle death.

About hypergeometric

See http://www.linkedin.com/in/deepdevelopment/ and http://667-per-cm.net
This entry was posted in American Statistical Association, children as political casualties, FBI BJS, firearms, guns, public health. Bookmark the permalink.

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