and Then There’s Physics does “Talking solutions and motivating action”

Posted on 6 March 2018 by ecoquant

And Then There’s Physics does a fine post about scientists “talking about solutions and motivating action”.

But I felt the figure from Dr Glen Peters needed to be updated a bit, with a status briefing. So, below:

(Click on image to see a larger figure and use your browser Back Button to return to blog.)

The problem isn’t that there aren’t solutions. The problem is that we are rapidly running out of time, and some people still think we have time to consider using, for instance, natural gas as a “bridge fuel”.

And I just discussed what begins to happen if we miss the temperature limit.

About ecoquant

See https://wordpress.com/view/667-per-cm.net/ Retired data scientist and statistician. Now working projects in quantitative ecology and, specifically, phenology of Bryophyta and technical methods for their study.

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This entry was posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, ecology, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene. Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to and Then There’s Physics does “Talking solutions and motivating action”

Greg Robie says:

13 March 2018 at 20:09

I’m porting the ATTP thread here re people as just another group of animals. Neither the comments you made at ATTP, nor what [little] I’ve read here suggest actions that communicate this as being your knowledge. I hear in these words an appeal to reason. Am I not listening well?

If I am, I’m interested in the potential contradiction. When one gives up on seeing humanity as sapient, and the existence and role of motivated reasoning suggests such is wise, to whom or what are rational appeals made? What does the exercise of making rational appeals affect?

=)

Reply
- hypergeometric says:
  
  13 March 2018 at 21:22
  
  What does the exercise of making rational appeals affect?
  
  If nothing else, it’s art.
  
  Reply
  - Greg Robie says:
    
    13 March 2018 at 22:23
    
    Cleaver … and, if nothing else, makes you a prolific artist! 😉 I was thinking there was more that could be said, but understand is the feeling is not shared.
    
    BTW, assertion about forest age and sequestering doesn’t jive with silviculture info I recall: rapid biomass production until 100 yrs, then slows, stable by 150 – 200yrs (for temperate forests).
    
    Reply
    - hypergeometric says:
      
      13 March 2018 at 22:46
      
      K. Naudts, Y. Chen, M. J. McGrath, J. Ryder, A. Valade, J. Otto, S. Luyssaert, “Europe’s forest management did not mitigate climate warming”, Science, 05 Feb 2016: 351(6273), 597-600.
      
      S. Luyssaert, E.-D. Schulze, A. Borner, A. Knohl, D. Hessenmoller, B. E. Law, P. Ciais. J. Grace, “Old-growth forests as global carbon sinks”, Nature 455, 213-215 (11 September 2008).
      
      N. L. Stephenson, et al, “Rate of tree carbon accumulation increases continuously with tree size”, Nature, 507, 90-93 (06 March 2014).
      
      Reply
      - Greg Robie says:
        
        14 March 2018 at 05:08
        
        Thanks. FYI, first link yielded warning issues then a login in Cyrillic alphabet. Re the others: interesting. If I got this correct, second includes soil, third breast height diameter a canopy leaf mass calculation. Third also says that milage varies. Or humbling complexity; the doorway to good intent being gamed for GREED-as-go[]d … Or at least such is a pattern that I’ve observed over the years.
        
        Best bit of new information I take away is that adopted silviculture knowledge needs updating in the models. How rich is your database regarding soil carbon dynamics, particularly vermiculture and fungi dynamics?
        
        Reply
        
        hypergeometric says:
        
        14 March 2018 at 10:11
        
        I provided linked to freely accessible text. If you would prefer, I can provide links to official sources, possibly behind paywalls.
        
        On microbes, there is the scary development of far northerly tundra microbial decomposition which I have repeatedly cited, namely,
        
        N. C. Parazoo, C. D. Koven, D. M. Lawrence, V. Romanovsky, C. E. Miller, “Detecting the permafrost carbon feedback: talik formation
        and increased cold-season respiration as precursors to sink-to-source transitions”, The Cryosphere, 12, 123-144, 2018.
        
        There’s a rich literature on how the microbial side of soil decompositions might tip in the direction of additional CO2 production. That it is keenly balanced now does not mean it will remain so, particularly if vegetation is water limited, or limited in amounts of other nutrients. See:
        
        D. B. Metcalfe, “Microbial change in warming soils: Long-term reorganization of microbial communities leads to pulses in carbon release”, Science, 6 October 2017, 358(6359), 10.1126/science.aap7325.
        
        J. M. Melillo, S.D. Frey, et al, “Long-term pattern and magnitude of soil carbon feedback to the climate system in a warming world”, with supplements, Science, 358, 101-105, 6 October 2017.
        
        Reply