"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
See https://wordpress.com/view/667-per-cm.net/ Retired data scientist and statistician. Now working projects in quantitative ecology and, specifically, phenology of Bryophyta and technical methods for their study, notably Macrophotography. Some photos of mine: https://www.flickr.com/photos/198372469@N03/
Tim Harford's “More or Less''
Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
Logistic curves in market disruption
From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
"Consider a Flat Pond"
Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC
Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian
Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub
“Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA
Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
AIP's history of global warming science: impacts
The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
All Models Are Wrong
Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report
The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
Sir David King
David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
Paul Beckwith
Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
HotWhopper: It's excellent.
Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
The beach boondoggle
Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
Transitioning to fully renewable energy
Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
Climate change: Evidence and causes
A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
"When Did Global Warming Stop"
Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
"Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2)
The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.