667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
Skip to content
  • Home
  • About

Category Archives: Australia

“…. [T]here’s something wonderful about … shooting for 200% renewable generation [over what’s needed] rather than struggling to get to 90% or net zero”

Posted on 5 February 2021 by ecoquant

Professor Saul Griffith, MIT I think our failure on fixing climate change is just a rhetorical failure of imagination. We haven’t been able to convince ourselves that it’s going to be great. It’s going to be great.

Posted in American Solar Energy Society, Australia, Bloomberg Green, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, clean disruption, climate economics, decentralized electric power generation, distributed generation, ecocapitalism, ecomodernism, ecopragmatism, electricity, engineering, green tech, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, photovoltaics, Saul Griffith, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, the energy of the people, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • Gabriel's staircase
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Professor David Draper
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • "The Expert"
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • London Review of Books
    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Awkward Botany
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • Earle Wilson
    • Label Noise
    • Healthy Home Healthy Planet
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • What If
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
  • climate change

    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • weather blocking patterns
    • Sea Change Boston
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • RealClimate
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • SolarLove
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Skeptical Science
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Simple models of climate change
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
  • Archives

  • Jan Galkowski

    • ecoquant
  • Blog Stats

    • 93,142 hits
  • Recent Posts

    • Adobe Lightroom for scientific photos 1 December 2021
    • Stranded Assets Nightmare 29 November 2021
    • Botkin’s Discordant Harmonies, a comment 28 November 2021
    • ‘Keystone Pipeline Developers Seek $15 Billion From U.S. for Cancellation’ 23 November 2021
    • My favorite presentation on climate disruption these days 23 November 2021
    • Photo of the week: Repeatedly distressed Mnium hornum 19 November 2021
    • Gee, if all maths classes were like this, they’d be exhausting … 18 November 2021
    • “Aggregating the harms of fossil fuels” 17 November 2021
    • Awesome. 17 November 2021
    • Price the Roads 16 November 2021
    • Fecklessness 15 November 2021
    • COP26, rest in agony 14 November 2021
    • David Wallace Wells …The Uninhabitable Earth and its implications 13 November 2021
    • Climate Music Break : Signs of Life 13 November 2021
    • Don’t like high or volatile petrol prices? Get an EV to replace your gas-guzzling thang 13 November 2021
    • Clearly not consumption based … but, well … 12 November 2021
    • We are living through the closing door of climate targets 12 November 2021
    • Sunday’s Storms Made Gas More Expensive, Thanks To Yet More East Bay Refinery Flare-Ups 11 November 2021
    • All about net ZERO 10 November 2021
    • Words from Mother Jones 9 November 2021
    • Well, brevity in argument is not something to be expected from training at new, Palantir-supported University of Austin 8 November 2021
    • ‘Will Ford do away with the dealer model?’ 8 November 2021
    • Hydrogen production from curtailed generation 8 November 2021
    • Losing sight of the big picture 8 November 2021
    • Stuart Stevens: Covid a Stress Test, and So Far We’re Failing 7 November 2021
    • The Truth about Sea Level Rise 2 November 2021
    • Climate Music Break: Pink Floyd, David Bowie, Comfortably Numb 2 November 2021
    • Welcome to your future 1 November 2021
    • “They are liars … You can have the best capitalism in the world, but if people are dead, they’re dead. It’s over.” 1 November 2021
    • “I have given up. I am here to talk about the science.” 1 November 2021
    • “How should children learn about climate change?” 30 October 2021
    • Future liability for fossil fuel energy producers and conveyors 29 October 2021
    • Comment on “Federal policy can drive the solar industry… but still may fall short” 28 October 2021
    • Yeah, like many aspects of the biosphere, forests and their contribution to sequestering Carbon is complicated 21 October 2021
    • Dr Gilbz 20 October 2021
    • In the field 19 October 2021
    • Climate Facts from James Hansen and Makiko Sato Ahead of COP26 14 October 2021
    • An Open Letter from U.S. Scientists Imploring President Biden to End the Fossil Fuel Era 9 October 2021
    • “It’s the exact opposite.” 7 October 2021
    • Rationale for XR, short term 5 October 2021
    • “I don’t want my grandchildren to suffer” XR 5 October 2021
    • Stopping climate disruption and eating cookies 5 October 2021
    • Myths 5 October 2021
    • Stephen Fry on XR 5 October 2021
    • A very recent Bill McKibben on Where We Are 1 October 2021
    • “A political dynamic …” 1 October 2021
    • Meet Solkjøring 28 September 2021
    • Greta, YouthCOP, 2021 28 September 2021
    • First Contact, and the Long Now Foundation 26 September 2021
    • Vineyard Sound, Rhode Island Sound, August, 2021 17 September 2021
  • Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

    Join 132 other subscribers
  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
Create a website or blog at WordPress.com
  • Follow Following
    • 667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
    • Join 132 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • 667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar