667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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Category Archives: Charles Ferguson

‘A Time To Choose’

Posted on 5 September 2016 by ecoquant

Charles Ferguson and a “Time To Choose”. (Much large image available by clicking on photo. Use browser Back Button to return to blog.) Trailer:

Posted in American Solar Energy Society, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Buckminster Fuller, Charles Ferguson, clean disruption, CleanTechnica, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, fossil fuel divestment, green tech, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, Joseph Schumpeter, regime shifts, Sankey diagram, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment
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    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
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    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
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    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • What If
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Karl Broman
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • London Review of Books
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    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • Awkward Botany
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • All about models
    • Earle Wilson
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
  • climate change

    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • SolarLove
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • Skeptical Science
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • Earth System Models
    • The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • Reanalyses.org
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • weather blocking patterns
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • Sea Change Boston
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • MIT's Climate Primer
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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