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"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Category Archives: ICL

ICL’s Gast, Openshaw, Riley, Barclay on COVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 : Disease, transmission, variants, and all that

Posted on 10 February 2021 by ecoquant
Posted in COVID-19, epidemiology, ICL, SARS-CoV-2 | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • "The Expert"
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Karl Broman
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • Ted Dunning
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Slice Sampling
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • All about models
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • London Review of Books
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Mertonian norms
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • Healthy Home Healthy Planet
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • What If
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
  • climate change

    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • Simple models of climate change
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • weather blocking patterns
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • And Then There's Physics
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • RealClimate
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Sea Change Boston
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
  • Archives

  • Jan Galkowski

    • 1 ecoquant
  • Blog Stats

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  • Recent Posts

    • Tamino On The Heat 11 September 2026
    • Rohde, Calvert, Hausfather: “A 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring” 6 September 2026
    • Professor Terence Tao 30 August 2026
    • “World’s Worst Photographer” 28 August 2026
    • “No, we’re not” 1 August 2026
    • That’s a silly idea, especially about a universe which is fundamentally stochastic. 30 July 2026
    • So much for U.S. leadership in Science and Engineering 30 July 2026
    • “record warm 2026” 27 July 2026
    • Professor Jeff Galkowski won a Whitehead Prize this year 3 July 2026
    • From TJ on the 250th 3 July 2026
    • Professor James Hansen 30 June 2026
    • Insight from Tamino 28 June 2026
    • Climate is Back … 24 June 2026
    • Some Solar in Westwood 22 June 2026
    • Importance of NSF’s Ocean Observatories Initiative 15 June 2026
    • More on RCP 8.5 from … 26 May 2026
    • The story of RCP 8.5 26 May 2026
    • “Estonia Warns European Allies Against Direct Talks With Russia” 17 May 2026
    • wind machine 10 May 2026
    • Dr Des Callaghan’s “Bryophytes around the world” 28 April 2026
    • Entire NSF National Science Board fired by Donald Trump 27 April 2026
    • DT is moving to control U.S. elections, one state at a time 27 April 2026
    • The Climate Brink 17 April 2026
    • Tamino, on Climate, Spring 2026 12 April 2026
    • from Canada PM Mark Carney 24 March 2026
    • Professor Katharine Hayhoe “Talking Climate” today 21 March 2026
    • thanks DT for making the case for solar and EVs and NOT oil 20 March 2026
    • 2026 March 14 [J 073.87] “Pi Day” 14 March 2026
    • Rare and hard to find 1937-1938 15 February 2026
    • EPA official actions on their “endangerment finding” 14 February 2026
    • RC: “a peek behind the curtain” 23 January 2026
    • Stark 18 January 2026
    • Could this be why DT wants Greenland? 16 January 2026
    • NAP update on Endangerment Finding 26 December 2025
    • Sporophyte capsules 16 October 2025
    • AI and GPT don’t manufacture results from nothing 18 September 2025
    • 16th September 2025, Westwood, MA 16 September 2025
    • Pohlia lescuriana 6 September 2025
    • Mckibben vs Nordhous 22 August 2025
    • NOAA climate assessment which has been taken off the federal site 13 August 2025
    • Fast-Track Review of Latest Evidence for Whether Greenhouse Gas Emissions Endanger Public Health and Welfare 7 August 2025
    • A New Phase in Trump’s War on Data 6 August 2025
    • Beaker Street 5 August 2025
    • Biofluorescent marsupial 5 August 2025
    • Steve Buchan, botanical photographer 28 July 2025
    • 2025 Jul 4-12 J(185-193) around yard 2 long lenses OM5 camera 12 July 2025
    • 25mm compact lens equivalent to 50mm 2 July 2025
    • Polytrichum macro photos, several of spore capsules 30 June 2025
    • “Macro Treasures” 12 June 2025
    • Flickr Account 24 May 2025
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter Arctic Ice: The Saga Continues
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