### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- American Statistical Association
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- What If
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- James' Empty Blog
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Karl Broman
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Slice Sampling
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Awkward Botany
- Ted Dunning
- Label Noise
- Number Cruncher Politics
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Risk and Well-Being
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Gabriel's staircase
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Mertonian norms

### climate change

- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- David Appell's early climate science
- And Then There's Physics
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Earth System Models
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- The Sunlight Economy
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Sea Change Boston
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Skeptical Science
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- weather blocking patterns
- Warming slowdown discussion
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- World Weather Attribution
- Reanalyses.org
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: epidemiology

## ICL’s Gast, Openshaw, Riley, Barclay on COVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 : Disease, transmission, variants, and all that

Posted in COVID-19, epidemiology, ICL, SARS-CoV-2
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## Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths *with uncertainties*

I. Introduction. It’s time to fulfill the promise made in “Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths“, a blog post from 2nd May 2020, and produce the same with uncertainty clouds about the functional trajectories(*). To begin, here are some assumptions … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Harvey, anomaly detection, count data regression, COVID-19, dependent data, dlm package, Durbin and Koopman, dynamic linear models, epidemiology, filtering, forecasting, Kalman filter, LaTeX, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical algorithms, numerical linear algebra, population biology, population dynamics, prediction, R, R statistical programming language, regression, statistical learning, stochastic algorithms
Tagged prediction intervals
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## “No, COVID-19 Is not the Flu”

Q&A with Andrew Pekosz, PhD, Johns Hopkins University: Q: What would you say to someone who insists to you that COVID-19 is “just the flu”? A: Since December 2019, COVID-19 has killed more people in the U.S. than influenza has … Continue reading

Posted in coronavirus, COVID-19, epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2
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## Rebekah Jones

From Rebekah Jones‘ keynote at the Data Science for COVID-19: Florida COVID Action The COVID Monitor Google COVID-19 Open Data Project

Posted in epidemiology, ethical ideals, ethics, Rebekah Jones, whistleblowing
Tagged Florida COVID Action, The COVID Monitor
1 Comment

## Has maintaining economic growth been worth it?

From Our World in Data article “No sign of a health-economy trade-off, quite the opposite“. Have the countries experiencing the largest economic decline performed better in protecting the nation’s health, as we would expect if there was a trade-off? The … Continue reading

Posted in coronavirus, COVID-19, economics, epidemiology, pandemic, policy metrics, politics, SARS-CoV-2
Tagged covid19, economicimpact, lives_for_dollars, pandemicresponse, sars_cov_2
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## “Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions”

J. Dehning et al., Science 369, eabb9789 (2020). DOI: 10.1126/science.abb9789 Source code and data. Note: This is not a classical approach to assessing strength of interventions using either counterfactuals or other kinds of causal inference. Accordingly, the argument for the … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, causal inference, causation, changepoint detection, coronavirus, counterfactuals, COVID-19, epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2, state-space models, statistical series, time series
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## COVID-19 statistics, a *caveat* : Sources of data matter

There are a number of sources of COVID-19-related demographics, cases, deaths, numbers testing positive, numbers recovered, and numbers testing negative available. Many of these are not consistent with one another. One could hope at least rates would be consistent, but … Continue reading

## First substantial mechanism for long term immunity from SARS-CoV-2 : T-cells

M. Leslie, “T cells found in COVID-19 patients ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity“, Science, doi:10.1126/science.abc8120. A. Grifoni, et al, “Targets of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in humans with COVID-19 disease and unexposed individuals“, Cell, 14th May 2020. J. … Continue reading

## “Seasonality of COVID-19, Other Coronaviruses, and Influenza” (from Radford Neal’s blog)

Thorough review with documentation and technical criticism of claims of COVID-19 seasonality or its lack. Whichever way this comes down, the links are well worth the visit! Will the incidence of COVID-19 decrease in the summer? There is reason to … Continue reading

## New *COVID-19* incidence in the United States as AR(1) processes

There are several sources of information regarding Covid-19 incidence now available. This post uses data from a single source: the COVID Tracking Project. In particular I restrict attention to cumulative daily case counts for the United States, the UK, and … Continue reading

Posted in coronavirus, COVID-19, epidemiology, pandemic, regression, SARS-CoV-2
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## What happens when time sampling density of a series matches its growth

This is the newly updated map of COVID-19 cases in the United States, updated, presumably, because of the new emphasis upon testing: How do we know this is the recent of recent testing? Look at the map of active cases: … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, climate denial, corruption, data science, data visualization, Donald Trump, dump Trump, epidemiology, experimental science, exponential growth, forecasting, Kalman filter, model-free forecasting, nonlinear systems, open data, penalized spline regression, population dynamics, sampling algorithms, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, sustainability, the right to know, the stack of lies
1 Comment

**R** ecosystem package *coronavirus*

Dr Rami Krispin of the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CCSE) has just released the R package coronavirus, which “provides a daily summary of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases by state/province“, caused by 2019-nCoV. (update 2020-03-12 … Continue reading

Posted in data presentation, data science, epidemiology
1 Comment

## “Code for causal inference: Interested in astronomical applications”

via Code for causal inference: Interested in astronomical applications From Professor Ewan Cameron at his Another Astrostatistics Blog.

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, astronomy, astrostatistics, causal inference, causation, counterfactuals, epidemiology, experimental design, experimental science, multivariate statistics, prediction, propensity scoring, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, reproducible research, rhetorical mathematics, rhetorical science, rhetorical statistics, science, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistics
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## Reanalysis of business visits from deployments of a mobile phone app

Updated, 20th October 2020 This reports a reanalysis of data from the deployment of a mobile phone app, as reported in: M. Yauck, L.-P. Rivest, G. Rothman, “Capture-recapture methods for data on the activation of applications on mobile phones“, Journal … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian computational methods, biology, capture-mark-recapture, capture-recapture, Christian Robert, count data regression, cumulants, diffusion, diffusion processes, Ecological Society of America, ecology, epidemiology, experimental science, field research, Gibbs Sampling, Internet measurement, Jean-Michel Marin, linear regression, mark-recapture, mathematics, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multilist methods, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerics, open source scientific software, Pierre-Simon Laplace, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, R statistical programming language, sampling, sampling algorithms, segmented package in R, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, stepwise approximation, stochastic algorithms, surveys, V. M. R. Muggeo
1 Comment

## Censorship of Science by the administration of President Donald Trump

See work by the Columbia Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. … President Trump has directed EPA and DOI to reconsider regulations adopted to control greenhouse gas emissions, despite the wealth of data showing that those emissions are the key … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, an ignorant American public, an uncaring American public, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, Azimuth Backup Project, citizen data, Climate Science Legal Defense Fund, Donald Trump, dump Trump, Ecological Society of America, environmental law, epidemiology, global blinding, Neill deGrasse Tyson, open data, rationality, reason, reasonableness, science, secularism, The Demon Haunted World, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, tragedy of the horizon, unreason
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## “All of Monsanto’s problems just landed on Bayer” (by Chris Hughes at *Bloomberg*)

See Chris Hughes’ article. Monsanto has touted Roundup (also known as Glyphosate but more properly as ) as a safe remedy for weed control, often in the taming of so-called “invasive species”. It’s used on playfields where children are exposed … Continue reading

Posted in agroecology, an uncaring American public, business, corporate responsibility, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, environmental law, epidemiology, evidence, invasive species, open data, Peter del Tredici, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rights of the inhabitants of the Commonwealth, risk, statistics, sustainability, sustainable landscaping, the right to know, Uncategorized, unreason, Westwood
1 Comment

## “Will climate change bring benefits from reduced cold-related mortality? Insights from the latest epidemiological research”

From RealClimate, and referring to article in Lancet : Guest post by Veronika Huber Climate skeptics sometimes like to claim that although global warming will lead to more deaths from heat, it will overall save lives due to fewer deaths from … Continue reading