667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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Category Archives: New England Statistical Society

a song in praise of data scientist Rebekah Jones

Posted on 12 December 2020 by ecoquant

I linked to Rebekah Jones‘ keynote address at the August 2020 Data Science Conference on COVID-19 sponsored by the National Institute for Statistical Science. Below is a song in tribute to her, wishing her well. (h/t Bill McKibben) We’re doing … Continue reading →

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Mathematical Society, American Statistical Association, Boston Ethical Society, children as political casualties, Data for Good, data science, geographic, geographic information systems, International Society for Bayesian Statistics, journalism, mathematics, New England Statistical Society, pandemic, Rebekah Jones, Risky Talk, science, Significance, statistical ecology, statistics, the problem of evil, whistleblowing, ``The tide is risin'/And so are we'' | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Mertonian norms
    • Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • Awkward Botany
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Gabriel's staircase
    • Earle Wilson
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • Label Noise
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • James' Empty Blog
    • American Statistical Association
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • London Review of Books
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • "The Expert"
    • Ted Dunning
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
  • climate change

    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • Earth System Models
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • Sea Change Boston
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • Reanalyses.org
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Skeptical Science
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • weather blocking patterns
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • Warming slowdown discussion
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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