667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Category Archives: The Weather Company

Proud to be a member of the American Meteorological Society

Posted on 14 March 2017 by ecoquant

(Click image to see a larger figure, and use your browser Back Button to return to blog.) Here is the link to the AMETSOC official statement, cited in the letter. AMETSOC is hardly the only such professional scientific organization to … Continue reading →

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atmosphere, being carbon dioxide, Bill Nye, Carbon Worshipers, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, Climate Lab Book, David Archer, Donald Trump, ecology, environment, environmental law, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorological models, meteorology, National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, Our Children's Trust, Principles of Planetary Climate, Ray Pierrehumbert, science, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, The Weather Channel, The Weather Company | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

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    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • Slice Sampling
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • Earle Wilson
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Label Noise
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • Awkward Botany
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Professor David Draper
  • climate change

    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Reanalyses.org
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • RealClimate
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • weather blocking patterns
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Ice and Snow
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • Sea Change Boston
    • SolarLove
    • The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • Earth System Models
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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