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Tag Archives: sermon

A sermon on climate disruption

Posted on 5 May 2013 by ecoquant
Posted in climate, rationality, Unitarian Universalism | Tagged sermon | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

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    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
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    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Slice Sampling
    • Gabriel's staircase
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
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    • Ted Dunning
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    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • What If
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
  • climate change

    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • Earth System Models
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • Ice and Snow
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • And Then There's Physics
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • Reanalyses.org
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Sea Change Boston
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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