A “warming plateau”?

There’s was an article in The New York Times yesterday titled “What to make of a warming plateau”. In addition to there being no Comments available there, I find the article annoying, since I see no evidence that there is such a plateau, working from original data. See below.


This uses surface temperature anomaly data from NOAA, and calculates two moving window quantile regressions with a cosine taper on the windows, one using a 9 year window width, the other using a 13 year window width. The bright green line shows the median (or 0.5) quantile of the 9 year regression, with the red and magenta showing the 0.3 and 0.7 quantiles, respectively. The dark green line shows the median quantile for the 13 year regression, with dashed dark red and dashed dark orange showing its 0.3 and 0.7 quantiles.

There’s evidence for increased variability here, but there is nothing to justify a conclusion of some kind of plateau.

(Added on 22nd June 2013: A good post from Dr Greg Laden on the same subject.)

(Added 26th June 2013: The quantile regression used here has recently been used to identify rapid Antarctic warming in the coldest regions by Dr Christian Franzke in an April 2013 publication.)

(Added 27th August 2013: Ari Jokimäki’s AGW Observer concurs, providing much more detail.)


About ecoquant

See https://667-per-cm.net/about. Retired data scientist and statistician. Now working projects in quantitative ecology and, specifically, phenology of Bryophyta and technical methods for their study.
This entry was posted in climate, environment, geophysics, maths, oceanography, physics, science, statistics. Bookmark the permalink.

1 Response to A “warming plateau”?

  1. Pingback: “Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years” (Fyfe, Gillett, Zwiers, 2013) | Hypergeometric

Leave a reply. Commenting standards are described in the About section linked from banner.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.