Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Gavin Simpson
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Label Noise
- Gabriel's staircase
- Karl Broman
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- All about models
- Earle Wilson
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Risk and Well-Being
- Professor David Draper
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
climate change
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Reanalyses.org
- Earth System Models
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- David Appell's early climate science
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Skeptical Science
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Ice and Snow
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- weather blocking patterns
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Social Cost of Carbon
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Sea Change Boston
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: physics
Physicists Doing Blues
Everybody’s Got the Blues ATLAS Boogie From The Canettes Blues Band at The LHC. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JD0VslrILuQ And let’s not forget climate scientists in Chicago:
Posted in ATLAS, Canettes Blues Band, physics
Leave a comment
Happy Newtonmas, 2020
Among other projects I support this year, post-retirement is Einstein@Home Why? Because with all the emphasis upon SARS-CoV-2, biopharmaceuticals, and mitigating climate disruption, which are all important, observational astronomy doesn’t get enough love. And this is an astronomy which isn’t … Continue reading
Posted in astronomy, astrostatistics, BOINC, Einstein@Home, physics
Leave a comment
In case you wondered if Carbon Dioxide increases caused climate change, here’s the latest news
In case you wondered if Carbon Dioxide (also called, carbonic acid, CO2) increases caused climate change, here’s the latest news … from 1856-1896:
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Chemical Society, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, an ignorant American public, an uncaring American public, Anthropocene, atmosphere, being carbon dioxide, Blackbody radiation, Boltzmann, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, climate grief, climate models, ClimateAdam, Cult of Carbon, Eaarth, earth, Earth Day, ecological disruption, ecomodernism, ecopragmatism, evidence, fossil fuels, gas pipeline leaks, global warming, Green New Deal, Greta Thunberg, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, ice sheet dynamics, investments, Karl Ragabo, klaus lackner, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, local self reliance, moral leadership, new forms of scientific peer review, philosophy of science, physical materialism, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, radiative forcing, rhetorical science, science, scientific publishing, stranded assets, supply chains, support of black boxes, Talk Solar, Tony Seba
1 Comment
Dan Fleisch says you don’t know the power of … the Dark Side Tensors
This is a fun motivating lecture: See also his A Student’s Guide to Vectors and Tensors, with related podcasts. It’s available on Kindle, by the way. (Save some trees.) eigenchris has another series of lectures on Tensors.
Posted in Dan Fleisch, physics, tensors
Leave a comment
No, Senator Marco Rubio and Larry Kudlow, we know how much humans contribute to climate change, at least precisely enough for Congress and an administration
14th October 2018, quoting Senator Marco Rubio and White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow, the Washington Post reported they each claimed that the recent UN report was an `overestimate`: “I think they overestimate,” Kudlow said of the U.N. report, which … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, anomaly detection, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, being carbon dioxide, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, bollocks, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, children as political casualties, climate change, climate data, evidence, global warming, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, Juliana v United States, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, physics, radiative forcing, science, science denier, tragedy of the horizon, UNFCCC, unreason
Leave a comment
Heat has no hair (from Eli Rabett)
See Eli’s post. Excerpt: We can summarize the data in the figure above adding that ~40 W/m2 go directly from the surface to space as IR radiation of the 398 W/m2 leaving the surface. In and out in the table … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, an ignorant American public, an uncaring American public, atmosphere, Blackbody radiation, carbon dioxide, chemistry, climate change, climate education, Eli Rabett, global warming, physics, science
Leave a comment
Blackbody radiation and the greenhouse effect, via plates (from Eli Rabett)
See Eli’s post. Excerpt: Eli can keep on adding plates, Ms. Rabett has gone out to buy some extras. Here is the red plate special. If somebunny works it through they will find that b’=3/4 a, go another plate and, … Continue reading
forecast for 27th March 2018
Today is the 21st of March, 2018. We are supposed to get our fourth nor’easter tomorrow this late Winter, and the third nor’easter in nearly as many weeks. ECMWF hosted, in this incarnation, at the Meteocentre UQAM in Montreal created … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, atmosphere, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, coastal communities, ensemble methods, ensemble models, fluid dynamics, forecasting, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, meteorological models, meteorology, numerical algorithms, physics, science, science education, spaghetti plots, tragedy of the horizon, water vapor
Leave a comment
Quote from Max Planck
(Hat tip to Professor Richard Kleeman of the Courant Institute for Mathematical Sciences.) “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die.” — Max Planck … Continue reading
`Letter to Lamar Smith’
On Ed Hawkins’ blog. The Committee on Science, Space & Technology of the US House of Representatives conducts regular evidence hearings on various science topics. On Wednesday 29th March, there is a hearing on “Climate science: assumptions, policy implications, and … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anemic data, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Ben Santer, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, Climate Lab Book, climate zombies, dependent data, environment, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, meteorology, MIchael Mann, Our Children's Trust, physics, science, smoothing, statistical dependence, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, time series
Leave a comment
Papers of the day
From the Machine Learning and Computational Modeling Lab, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran: A. Ahmadian, K. Fouladi, B. N. Araabi, “Writer identification using a probabilistic model of handwritten digits and Approximate Bayesian Computation,” International … Continue reading
Yes, I will be marching for Science in Boston
Like many, including Eli Rabett, I will be marching for Science in April, on Earth Day. My march will be part of the Boston march. Why? Because Science has been and is my life, and it always has been, and … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, astronomy, astrophysics, Carl Sagan, climate, Climate Lab Book, ecology, Eli Rabett, engineering, fluid dynamics, geophysics, hydrology, marine biology, meteorology, physics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, reason, science, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, WHOI, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, XKCD
Leave a comment
“Oh no, not again” (from ATTP)
Response to a paper by Hermann Harde, from Ken Rice at … And Then There’s Physics. Dr Rice cites two other responses as well: One by Gavin Schmidt at RealClimate. One from 2011 by Gavin Cawley from the University of … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, atmosphere, being carbon dioxide, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, chemistry, climate, climate disruption, climate education, Climate Lab Book, David Archer, diffusion, diffusion processes, fossil fuels, geophysics, Global Carbon Project, greenhouse gases, ignorance, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, Ray Pierrehumbert, science, science education
Leave a comment
Why scientific measurements need to be adjusted
There is an excellent piece in Ars Technica about why scientific measurements need to be adjusted, and the implications of this for climate data. It is written by Scott K Johnson and is called “Thorough, not thoroughly fabricated: The truth … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, Canettes Blues Band, citizen data, climate data, data science, environment, evidence, geophysics, GISTEMP, HadCRUT4, mathematics education, meteorological models, obfuscating data, open data, physics, science, spatial statistics, Tamino, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, Variable Variability
Leave a comment
`Moving forward on climate change and sustainability`
From WGBH, and hat tip to Environmental Justice TV, includes Dr Gavin Schmidt speaking, who I was especially interested in, and whose talk begins here: Interesting that Dr Schmidt has some gentle criticism of the PBS program NOVA. Whole talk … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, Ecology Action, environment, Equiterre, fossil fuel divestment, Gavin Schmidt, geophysics, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, Kevin Anderson, moral leadership, NASA, physics, science, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, zero carbon
Leave a comment
Happy Newtonmas!
When knowledge conquered fear … And, what better way to celebrate than watching the National Geographic Cosmos episode, When knowledge conquered fear, hosted by the great Dr Neil deGrasse Tyson, Director of the Hayden Planetarium in New York City.
Getting back to 350 ppm CO2: You can’t go home again
(Update of this piece, included below.) (Major update of this piece included below.) You can’t. It’ll cost much more than 23 times 40 times the Gross World Product to do it. And, in any case, you need to go to … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Anthropocene, atmosphere, bollocks, bridge to nowhere, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, carbon dioxide sequestration, Carbon Worshipers, chemistry, clear air capture of carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, David Archer, diffusion, diffusion processes, ecological services, ecology, economics, engineering, environment, environmental law, fossil fuels, geoengineering, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, methane, Our Children's Trust, physics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, science, Spaceship Earth, the right to be and act stupid, Wally Broecker, zero carbon
9 Comments
On the rise of the Trumpistas …
Just a couple of things to write about The Obvious. I have written a couple of longer thoughts as Comments, here and here, at … And Then There’s Physics. I reiterate that I don’t believe any voter was hoodwinked, that … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Solar Energy Society, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atheism, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate zombies, coastal communities, consumption, corporate supply chains, cynicism, Daniel Kahneman, denial, disingenuity, Donald Trump, dynamical systems, Equiterre, exponential growth, extended supply chains, Exxon, fear uncertainty and doubt, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ice sheet dynamics, ignorance, Joseph Schumpeter, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Interfaith Coalition for Climate Action, meteorology, Minsky moment, moral leadership, oceanography, organizational failures, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reason, reasonableness, risk, science, science denier, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, temporal myopia, the energy of the people, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, wind energy, wind power, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, ``The tide is risin'/And so are we''
2 Comments
What’s going on in the ocean off the Northeast United States
Hint: Climate change has somethin’ to do with it. Schematic diagram illustrating the component parts of the AMOC and the 26◦ N observing system. Black arrows represent the Ekman transport (predominantly northward). Red arrows illustrate the circulation of warm waters … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, bifurcations, climate, climate change, climate disruption, coastal communities, critical slowing down, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, fluid dynamics, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, John Marshall, meteorology, oceanic eddies, oceanography, physics, regime shifts, science, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sea level rise, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, thermohaline circulation, WHOI, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Leave a comment
On failing to learn important lessons
As previously posted here, people along coasts and their governments, are failing to learn the lessons of both climate-induced sea level rise, and storms like Extratropical Sandy. Now, it’s startlingly clear how ignorant people are of these necessary lessons. The … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, bollocks, case law, citizenship, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, coastal communities, coasts, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, ecological services, economics, environment, environmental law, evidence, flooding, forecasting, global warming, greenhouse gases, hydrology, Hyper Anthropocene, John Englander, liberal climate deniers, living shorelines, meteorological models, meteorology, nor'easters, oceanography, physics, planning, politics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, Robert Young, science, science denier, sea level rise, seawalls, shorelines, sustainability, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, water, zero carbon
1 Comment
“All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” — George Box
(Image courtesy of the Damien Garcia.) As a statistician and quant, I’ve thought hard about that oft-cited Boxism. I’m not sure I agree. It’s not that there is such a thing as a perfect model, or correct model, whatever in … Continue reading
Posted in abstraction, American Association for the Advancement of Science, astronomy, astrophysics, mathematics, model-free forecasting, numerics, perceptions, physical materialism, physics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, science, spatial statistics, splines, statistics, the right to know, theoretical physics, time series
Leave a comment
Our uncontrolled experiment with Earth as an Astrophysics problem set
Hat tip to And then there’s Physics …: On climate change and Astrobiology , by Adam Frank.
Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Anthropocene, astrophysics, bacteria, bollocks, Carl Sagan, civilization, climate, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, cynicism, Daniel Kahneman, David Archer, David Suzuki, denial, destructive economic development, Eaarth, ecology, environment, environmental law, Equiterre, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, James Hansen, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, mass extinctions, meteorology, NASA, Neill deGrasse Tyson, oceanography, Our Children's Trust, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, quantitative ecology, random walks, Ray Pierrehumbert, risk, Robert Young, science, sustainability
Leave a comment
“Predicting annual temperatures a year ahead” (Dr Gavin Schmidt at REALCLIMATE)
Dr Schmidt is essentially betting that the trend, seen as a random variable, will regress towards the smooth mean. I have a post at Nate Silver’s 538 site on how we can predict annual surface temperature anomalies based on El … Continue reading
Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, changepoint detection, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, oceanography, physics, regression toward the mean, science, statistics, time series
Leave a comment
`Hermine Unique among Storms’
Originally posted on Climate Denial Crock of the Week:
Hermine still developing. Predictions are for it to hold in place off the East Coast for several days, due to a blocking pattern known as a “Rex Block”. This and many…
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, bifurcations, changepoint detection, climate disruption, coastal communities, Dan Satterfield, ecology, environment, global warming, hurricanes, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorological models, meteorology, nor'easters, oceanic eddies, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, science, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, thermodynamics
Leave a comment
Carbon Sinks in Crisis — It Looks Like the World’s Largest Rainforest is Starting to Bleed Greenhouse Gasses
Originally posted on robertscribbler:
Back in 2005, and again in 2010, the vast Amazon rainforest, which has been aptly described as the world’s lungs, briefly lost its ability to take in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Its drought-stressed trees were not growing…
Posted in bifurcations, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide sequestration, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate disruption, disruption, dynamical systems, environment, exponential growth, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, IPCC, Lévy flights, Lorenz, Minsky moment, model-free forecasting, physics, population biology, population dynamics, Principles of Planetary Climate, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, random walk processes, Ray Pierrehumbert, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, risk, Stefan Rahmstorf, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, UU Humanists
2 Comments
Repaired R code for Markov spatial simulation of hurricane tracks from historical trajectories
(Slight update, 28th June 2020.) I’m currently studying random walk and diffusion processes and their connections with random fields. I’m interested in this because at the core of dynamic linear models, Kalman filters, and state-space methods there is a random … Continue reading
Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Arthur Charpentier, atmosphere, diffusion, diffusion processes, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, geophysics, hurricanes, Kalman filter, Kerry Emanuel, Lévy flights, Lorenz, Markov chain random fields, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, MCMC, mesh models, meteorological models, meteorology, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical analysis, numerical software, oceanography, open data, open source scientific software, physics, random walk processes, random walks, science, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, time series
1 Comment
“Full-depth Ocean Heat Content” reblog
This is a re-blog of an excellent post at And Then There’s Physics, titled Full-depth OHC or, expanded, “full-depth ocean heat content”. Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, computation, differential equations, ensembles, environment, fluid dynamics, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Lorenz, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, physics, science, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series
Leave a comment
ecoquant
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy 