Bill Nye’s “Global Meltdown”: Climate grief in 5 steps

Postscript, 2nd April 2016

I’ve been asked offline whether I buy McPherson’s catastrophic warming scenario. I don’t, or at least I wouldn’t bet on it. Each of the components of Professor McPherson’s scenario are based upon solid science. But in order to get the outcome he is expecting, they all need to happen together. While there is a common causal link among them, the features which need to happen are the fast rates each being at the high tails of their distributions. Is that possible? Sure, but it’s unlikely.

So, while these possibilities are sobering, and recent evidence suggests things may be moving faster than anticipated, the McPherson scenario seems improbable to me. That does not at all mean everything’s okay. I think we are going to face some surprises, and that’s unfortunate. But 2025-2030 for wholesale change? Nope.

Anyway, I’m not a climate scientist, just a statistician and engineer who is a little familiar with assessing risk.

(Hat tip to Peter Sinclair’s Climate Denial Crock of the Week for these interviews below.)

About ecoquant

See Retired data scientist and statistician. Now working projects in quantitative ecology and, specifically, phenology of Bryophyta and technical methods for their study.
This entry was posted in adaptation, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, Arnold Schwarzennegger, Bill Nye, bridge to nowhere, Carbon Cycle, Carbon Worshipers, climate, climate change, climate disruption, denial, Eaarth, Earle Wilson, energy, environment, Florida, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, physics, planning, rationality, reasonableness, science, selfishness, zero carbon. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to Bill Nye’s “Global Meltdown”: Climate grief in 5 steps

  1. Pingback: “Things going fast”: Summary of a class on climate disruption taught by Professor Ricky Rood | Hypergeometric

  2. pendantry says:

    Good stuff. Or not. At this juncture, the difference it scarcely matters any more. You may not subscribe to McPherson’s interpretation (as for me, I’m too scared to), but one thing’s for sure: big changes are afoot, one way or another.

  3. MLG says:

    Excellent. Thanks for sharing.

Leave a reply. Commenting standards are described in the About section linked from banner.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.