`On Records`

This is a reblog from Eli Rabett, one of the post On Records, with additional comments and material from the author-moderator of this blog, 667-per-cm.net:

A distinguishing mark of a new record in a time series is that it exceeds all previous values another is that the first value in a time series is always a record.

Given a stationary situation with nothing except chance, aka natural variation, the number of new records should decline to zero, or pretty close, as the series extends in time.

(Click on figure to get a larger image, and use browser Back Button to return to blog.)

The above is from:

S. I. Seneviratne, R. Wartenburger, B. P. Guillod, A. L. Hirsch, M. M. Vogel, V. Brovkin, D. P. van Vuuren, N. Schaller, L. Boysen, K. V.
Calvin, J.n Doelman, P. Greve, P. Havlik, F. Humpenöder, T. Krisztin, D. Mitchell, A.r Popp, K. Riahi, J. Rogelj, C.-F.h Schleussner, J. Sillmann, E. Stehfest, ``Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C'', Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2nd April 2018, \texttt{DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0450}.

While Seneviratne, et al approach the estimates with a deeper and far more nuanced analysis, it’s been known that as the globe warms, land will warm faster:

And the travesty and tragedy are we’ve known about this a damn long time and have done nothing:

That’s from 1958.

See also:

H. D. Matthews, K. Zickfeld, R. Knutti, M. R. Allen, ``Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets'', Environmental Research Letters, January 2018, 13(1).

Welcome to your choice:

About ecoquant

See https://wordpress.com/view/667-per-cm.net/ Retired data scientist and statistician. Now working projects in quantitative ecology and, specifically, phenology of Bryophyta and technical methods for their study.
This entry was posted in Anthropocene, being carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, Cult of Carbon, ecology, Eli Rabett, ethics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, liberal climate deniers, Massachusetts Interfaith Coalition for Climate Action, meteorology, Our Children's Trust, planning, pollution, quantitative ecology, radiative forcing, rights of the inhabitants of the Commonwealth, Spaceship Earth, temporal myopia, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, tragedy of the horizon, Victor Brovkin, wishful environmentalism. Bookmark the permalink.

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