(To see a larger figure, click on image to open it in a new browser window. This is from ILSR‘s “Of New Power Generation, How Much is on the Roof? Quarterly Update — 2019 Q1“.)
It was once warned, and now it’s coming true: The government unsubsidized cost of utility scale solar is now cheaper than any fossil fuel, including fracked gas. What these cost curves do not show is the closing gap between residential PV generation and cost of electrical transmission from a utility. Residential PV is still twice as high, but eventually residential PV, especially if incentivized, will match or beat the cost of transmission. That is expected to occur by 2025. When that occurs, there is no reason at all to purchase that portion of electricity from a utility. Whether storage is used or not, whether net metering is available or not, whatever portion of electrical consumption for a home comes from solar PV is a clear win.