667 per centimeter
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Category Archives: biostatistics

2025-03-10 J 69

Posted on 10 March 2025 by ecoquant
Posted in biostatistics, catastrophe modeling, climate activism, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, Donald Trump, dump Trump, ecocapitalism, ecological disruption, Ecology Action, environment, field biology, politics, price of anarchy | Tagged crazy politicians | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • "The Expert"
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • London Review of Books
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • Professor David Draper
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • American Statistical Association
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • Ted Dunning
    • Mertonian norms
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • All about models
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • Earle Wilson
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
  • climate change

    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Earth System Models
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Sea Change Boston
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • RealClimate
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Skeptical Science
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • SolarLove
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
  • Archives

  • Jan Galkowski

    • 1 ecoquant
  • Blog Stats

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  • Recent Posts

    • CLIMATE FORWARD from The New York Times 22 September 2026
    • Tamino On The Heat 11 September 2026
    • Rohde, Calvert, Hausfather: “A 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring” 6 September 2026
    • Professor Terence Tao 30 August 2026
    • “World’s Worst Photographer” 28 August 2026
    • “No, we’re not” 1 August 2026
    • That’s a silly idea, especially about a universe which is fundamentally stochastic. 30 July 2026
    • So much for U.S. leadership in Science and Engineering 30 July 2026
    • “record warm 2026” 27 July 2026
    • Professor Jeff Galkowski won a Whitehead Prize this year 3 July 2026
    • From TJ on the 250th 3 July 2026
    • Professor James Hansen 30 June 2026
    • Insight from Tamino 28 June 2026
    • Climate is Back … 24 June 2026
    • Some Solar in Westwood 22 June 2026
    • Importance of NSF’s Ocean Observatories Initiative 15 June 2026
    • More on RCP 8.5 from … 26 May 2026
    • The story of RCP 8.5 26 May 2026
    • “Estonia Warns European Allies Against Direct Talks With Russia” 17 May 2026
    • wind machine 10 May 2026
    • Dr Des Callaghan’s “Bryophytes around the world” 28 April 2026
    • Entire NSF National Science Board fired by Donald Trump 27 April 2026
    • DT is moving to control U.S. elections, one state at a time 27 April 2026
    • The Climate Brink 17 April 2026
    • Tamino, on Climate, Spring 2026 12 April 2026
    • from Canada PM Mark Carney 24 March 2026
    • Professor Katharine Hayhoe “Talking Climate” today 21 March 2026
    • thanks DT for making the case for solar and EVs and NOT oil 20 March 2026
    • 2026 March 14 [J 073.87] “Pi Day” 14 March 2026
    • Rare and hard to find 1937-1938 15 February 2026
    • EPA official actions on their “endangerment finding” 14 February 2026
    • RC: “a peek behind the curtain” 23 January 2026
    • Stark 18 January 2026
    • Could this be why DT wants Greenland? 16 January 2026
    • NAP update on Endangerment Finding 26 December 2025
    • Sporophyte capsules 16 October 2025
    • AI and GPT don’t manufacture results from nothing 18 September 2025
    • 16th September 2025, Westwood, MA 16 September 2025
    • Pohlia lescuriana 6 September 2025
    • Mckibben vs Nordhous 22 August 2025
    • NOAA climate assessment which has been taken off the federal site 13 August 2025
    • Fast-Track Review of Latest Evidence for Whether Greenhouse Gas Emissions Endanger Public Health and Welfare 7 August 2025
    • A New Phase in Trump’s War on Data 6 August 2025
    • Beaker Street 5 August 2025
    • Biofluorescent marsupial 5 August 2025
    • Steve Buchan, botanical photographer 28 July 2025
    • 2025 Jul 4-12 J(185-193) around yard 2 long lenses OM5 camera 12 July 2025
    • 25mm compact lens equivalent to 50mm 2 July 2025
    • Polytrichum macro photos, several of spore capsules 30 June 2025
    • “Macro Treasures” 12 June 2025
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter Arctic Ice: The Saga Continues
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