Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Category Archives: catastrophe modeling
Keep fossil fuels in the ground
Ah, wouldn’t it be lovely!? Is this the beginning of the Minsky Moment Mark Carney has feared? In short, that was because the trading markets had not priced in (a) the risks from climate change, and (b) the risks from … Continue reading
On odds of storms, and extreme precipitation
People talk about “thousand year storms”. Rather than being a storm having a recurrence time of once in a thousand years, these are storms which have a 0.001 chance per year of occurring. Storms aren’t the only weather events of … Continue reading
Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, catastrophe modeling, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, ecopragmatism, evidence, extreme events, extreme value distribution, flooding, floods, games of chance, global warming, global weirding, insurance, meteorological models, meteorology, R, R statistical programming language, real estate values, risk, Risky Business, riverine flooding, science, Significance
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“The financial crash and the climate crisis” (The New Yorker Radio Hour)
A great podcast episode. Check out the thoughts of the late Professor Martin Weitzman as well, in “The man who got economists to take climate nightmares seriously“.
Posted in American Statistical Association, an uncaring American public, Anthropocene, being carbon dioxide, bifurcations, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, catastrophe modeling, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate grief, climate justice, climate mitigation, climate nightmares, climate policy, climate zombies, coastal investment risks, flooding, floods, Florida, global warming, global weirding, home resale values, Hyper Anthropocene, objective reality, oceans, Robert Young, Scituate, shorelines, Sir David King, temporal myopia, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, unreason
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CBRA is awesome!
Hat tip to Professor Rob Young and Audubon for a great newsfilm.
Posted in Anthropocene, Association to Preserve Cape Cod, being carbon dioxide, bridge to somewhere, Cape Cod, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, catastrophe modeling, climate disruption, climate economics, coastal communities, coastal investment risks, coasts, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, destructive economic development, ecological disruption, ecomodernism, economic trade, ecopragmatism, flooding, floods, fossil fuels, global warming, greenhouse gases, home resale values, Humans have a lot to answer for, hurricanes, hydrology, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, life cycle sustainability analysis, living shorelines, ocean warming, Robert Young, science, science education, stream flow, sustainable landscaping, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, tragedy of the horizon, unreason, UU, UU Mass Action, UU Ministry for Earth, UU Needham, Wally Broecker, wishful environmentalism, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, zero carbon, ``The tide is risin'/And so are we''
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Result of our own fiddling: Bob Watson and climate risk
https://sms.cam.ac.uk/media/746045 Professor Bob Watson, University of East Anglia, presents the summary risk, climate change: The question is not whether the Earth’s climate will change in response to human activities, but when, where and by how much. Human activities are changing … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, attribution, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, catastrophe modeling, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, climate grief, climate justice, ecological disruption, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, global blinding, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, meteorology, National Center for Atmospheric Research, non-parametric model, Principles of Planetary Climate, radiative forcing, reasonableness, science, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, Solar Freakin' Roadways, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Solpad, Sonnen community, Spaceship Earth, stranded assets, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, tragedy of the horizon, utility company death spiral, water, wind energy, wind power
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“Rising seas erode $15.8 billion in home value from Maine to Mississippi”
From the First Street Foundation‘s press release, with selected figures below. This is based upon the methods described in: S. A. McAlpine, J. R. Porter, “Estimating recent local impacts of Sea-Level Rise on current real-estate losses: A housing market case … Continue reading
Sampling: Rejection, Reservoir, and Slice
An article by Suilou Huang for catatrophe modeler AIR-WorldWide of Boston about rejection sampling in CAT modeling got me thinking about pulling together some notes about sampling algorithms of various kinds. There are, of course, books written about this subject, … Continue reading
Posted in accept-reject methods, American Statistical Association, Bayesian computational methods, catastrophe modeling, data science, diffusion processes, empirical likelihood, Gibbs Sampling, insurance, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, maths, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical algorithms, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, percolation theory, Python 3 programming language, R statistical programming language, Radford Neal, sampling, slice sampling, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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