Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Slice Sampling
- Professor David Draper
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Label Noise
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- "The Expert"
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Gabriel's staircase
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Number Cruncher Politics
- London Review of Books
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Ted Dunning
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- American Statistical Association
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
climate change
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- World Weather Attribution
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- And Then There's Physics
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Simple models of climate change
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Sea Change Boston
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Risk and Well-Being
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Earth System Models
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Skeptical Science
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: catastrophe modeling
Discordant Harmonies: Goals for a Holiday in Retirement
Claire and I are lucky enough to have won “Escape to the Cape” at the annual auction of our congregation, First Parish in Needham, courtesy of Muriel and Tom Gehman. We’ll be Tesla-ing down to Hyannisport this week to indulge. … Continue reading
Keep fossil fuels in the ground
Ah, wouldn’t it be lovely!? Is this the beginning of the Minsky Moment Mark Carney has feared? In short, that was because the trading markets had not priced in (a) the risks from climate change, and (b) the risks from … Continue reading
On odds of storms, and extreme precipitation
People talk about “thousand year storms”. Rather than being a storm having a recurrence time of once in a thousand years, these are storms which have a 0.001 chance per year of occurring. Storms aren’t the only weather events of … Continue reading
Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, catastrophe modeling, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, ecopragmatism, evidence, extreme events, extreme value distribution, flooding, floods, games of chance, global warming, global weirding, insurance, meteorological models, meteorology, R, R statistical programming language, real estate values, risk, Risky Business, riverine flooding, science, Significance
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“The financial crash and the climate crisis” (The New Yorker Radio Hour)
A great podcast episode. Check out the thoughts of the late Professor Martin Weitzman as well, in “The man who got economists to take climate nightmares seriously“.
Posted in American Statistical Association, an uncaring American public, Anthropocene, being carbon dioxide, bifurcations, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, catastrophe modeling, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate grief, climate justice, climate mitigation, climate nightmares, climate policy, climate zombies, coastal investment risks, flooding, floods, Florida, global warming, global weirding, home resale values, Hyper Anthropocene, objective reality, oceans, Robert Young, Scituate, shorelines, Sir David King, temporal myopia, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, unreason
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CBRA is awesome!
Hat tip to Professor Rob Young and Audubon for a great newsfilm.
Posted in Anthropocene, Association to Preserve Cape Cod, being carbon dioxide, bridge to somewhere, Cape Cod, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, catastrophe modeling, climate disruption, climate economics, coastal communities, coastal investment risks, coasts, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, destructive economic development, ecological disruption, ecomodernism, economic trade, ecopragmatism, flooding, floods, fossil fuels, global warming, greenhouse gases, home resale values, Humans have a lot to answer for, hurricanes, hydrology, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, life cycle sustainability analysis, living shorelines, ocean warming, Robert Young, science, science education, stream flow, sustainable landscaping, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, tragedy of the horizon, unreason, UU, UU Mass Action, UU Ministry for Earth, UU Needham, Wally Broecker, wishful environmentalism, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, zero carbon, ``The tide is risin'/And so are we''
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Result of our own fiddling: Bob Watson and climate risk
https://sms.cam.ac.uk/media/746045 Professor Bob Watson, University of East Anglia, presents the summary risk, climate change: The question is not whether the Earth’s climate will change in response to human activities, but when, where and by how much. Human activities are changing … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, attribution, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, catastrophe modeling, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, climate grief, climate justice, ecological disruption, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, global blinding, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, meteorology, National Center for Atmospheric Research, non-parametric model, Principles of Planetary Climate, radiative forcing, reasonableness, science, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, Solar Freakin' Roadways, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Solpad, Sonnen community, Spaceship Earth, stranded assets, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, tragedy of the horizon, utility company death spiral, water, wind energy, wind power
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“Rising seas erode $15.8 billion in home value from Maine to Mississippi”
From the First Street Foundation‘s press release, with selected figures below. This is based upon the methods described in: S. A. McAlpine, J. R. Porter, “Estimating recent local impacts of Sea-Level Rise on current real-estate losses: A housing market case … Continue reading
Sampling: Rejection, Reservoir, and Slice
An article by Suilou Huang for catatrophe modeler AIR-WorldWide of Boston about rejection sampling in CAT modeling got me thinking about pulling together some notes about sampling algorithms of various kinds. There are, of course, books written about this subject, … Continue reading
Posted in accept-reject methods, American Statistical Association, Bayesian computational methods, catastrophe modeling, data science, diffusion processes, empirical likelihood, Gibbs Sampling, insurance, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, maths, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical algorithms, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, percolation theory, Python 3 programming language, R statistical programming language, Radford Neal, sampling, slice sampling, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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ecoquant
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy 