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Category Archives: coal

The story of RCP 8.5

Posted on 26 May 2026 by ecoquant

What’s there to know about RCP 8.5 by Climate Adam.

Posted in climate, Climate Adam, climate change, climate denial, climate economics, climate education, Climate Hope, climate mitigation, climate models, climate policy, coal, Zeke Hausfather, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Muehlenberg County

Posted on 25 October 2020 by ecoquant
Posted in climate disruption, coal, John Prine | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • What If
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Gabriel's staircase
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • Karl Broman
    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Slice Sampling
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • All about models
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • "The Expert"
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • American Statistical Association
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • Healthy Home Healthy Planet
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Earle Wilson
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
  • climate change

    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
    • Sea Change Boston
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • weather blocking patterns
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Simple models of climate change
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • And Then There's Physics
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • Ice and Snow
    • The Sunlight Economy
  • Archives

  • Jan Galkowski

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  • Recent Posts

    • CLIMATE FORWARD from The New York Times 22 September 2026
    • Tamino On The Heat 11 September 2026
    • Rohde, Calvert, Hausfather: “A 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring” 6 September 2026
    • Professor Terence Tao 30 August 2026
    • “World’s Worst Photographer” 28 August 2026
    • “No, we’re not” 1 August 2026
    • That’s a silly idea, especially about a universe which is fundamentally stochastic. 30 July 2026
    • So much for U.S. leadership in Science and Engineering 30 July 2026
    • “record warm 2026” 27 July 2026
    • Professor Jeff Galkowski won a Whitehead Prize this year 3 July 2026
    • From TJ on the 250th 3 July 2026
    • Professor James Hansen 30 June 2026
    • Insight from Tamino 28 June 2026
    • Climate is Back … 24 June 2026
    • Some Solar in Westwood 22 June 2026
    • Importance of NSF’s Ocean Observatories Initiative 15 June 2026
    • More on RCP 8.5 from … 26 May 2026
    • The story of RCP 8.5 26 May 2026
    • “Estonia Warns European Allies Against Direct Talks With Russia” 17 May 2026
    • wind machine 10 May 2026
    • Dr Des Callaghan’s “Bryophytes around the world” 28 April 2026
    • Entire NSF National Science Board fired by Donald Trump 27 April 2026
    • DT is moving to control U.S. elections, one state at a time 27 April 2026
    • The Climate Brink 17 April 2026
    • Tamino, on Climate, Spring 2026 12 April 2026
    • from Canada PM Mark Carney 24 March 2026
    • Professor Katharine Hayhoe “Talking Climate” today 21 March 2026
    • thanks DT for making the case for solar and EVs and NOT oil 20 March 2026
    • 2026 March 14 [J 073.87] “Pi Day” 14 March 2026
    • Rare and hard to find 1937-1938 15 February 2026
    • EPA official actions on their “endangerment finding” 14 February 2026
    • RC: “a peek behind the curtain” 23 January 2026
    • Stark 18 January 2026
    • Could this be why DT wants Greenland? 16 January 2026
    • NAP update on Endangerment Finding 26 December 2025
    • Sporophyte capsules 16 October 2025
    • AI and GPT don’t manufacture results from nothing 18 September 2025
    • 16th September 2025, Westwood, MA 16 September 2025
    • Pohlia lescuriana 6 September 2025
    • Mckibben vs Nordhous 22 August 2025
    • NOAA climate assessment which has been taken off the federal site 13 August 2025
    • Fast-Track Review of Latest Evidence for Whether Greenhouse Gas Emissions Endanger Public Health and Welfare 7 August 2025
    • A New Phase in Trump’s War on Data 6 August 2025
    • Beaker Street 5 August 2025
    • Biofluorescent marsupial 5 August 2025
    • Steve Buchan, botanical photographer 28 July 2025
    • 2025 Jul 4-12 J(185-193) around yard 2 long lenses OM5 camera 12 July 2025
    • 25mm compact lens equivalent to 50mm 2 July 2025
    • Polytrichum macro photos, several of spore capsules 30 June 2025
    • “Macro Treasures” 12 June 2025
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter Arctic Ice: The Saga Continues
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