### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- James' Empty Blog
- Gabriel's staircase
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Ted Dunning
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Karl Broman
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Professor David Draper
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Risk and Well-Being
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Mertonian norms
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Slice Sampling
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Gavin Simpson
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)

### climate change

- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Ice and Snow
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- The Sunlight Economy
- David Appell's early climate science
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- World Weather Attribution
- Skeptical Science
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Risk and Well-Being
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Climate model projections versus observations
- weather blocking patterns
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- SolarLove
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Markov Chain Monte Carlo

## Sampling: Rejection, Reservoir, and Slice

An article by Suilou Huang for catatrophe modeler AIR-WorldWide of Boston about rejection sampling in CAT modeling got me thinking about pulling together some notes about sampling algorithms of various kinds. There are, of course, books written about this subject, … Continue reading

Posted in accept-reject methods, American Statistical Association, Bayesian computational methods, catastrophe modeling, data science, diffusion processes, empirical likelihood, Gibbs Sampling, insurance, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, maths, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical algorithms, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, percolation theory, Python 3 programming language, R statistical programming language, Radford Neal, sampling, slice sampling, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## Less evidence for a global warming hiatus, and urging more use of Bayesian model averaging in climate science

(This post has been significantly updated midday 15th February 2018.) I’ve written about the supposed global warming hiatus of 2001-2014 before: “‘Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years’ (Fyfe, Gillett, Zwiers, 2013)”, 28 August 2013 “Warming Slowdown?”, Azimuth, Part … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Parnell, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bayesian, Bayesian model averaging, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, climate change, David Spiegelhalter, dependent data, Dublin, GISTEMP, global warming, Grant Foster, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, JAGS, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, MCMC, model-free forecasting, Niamh Cahill, Significance, statistics, Stefan Rahmstorf, Tamino
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## Merry Newtonmas tomorrow! On finding the area of the Batman Shape using Monte Carlo integration

It’s Newtonmas 2017 tomorrow! What better way to celebrate than talk about integration! The Batman Shape (sometimes called the Batman Curve, somewhat erroneously, I think) looks like this: You can find details about it at Wolfram MathWorld, including its area … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Calculus, Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Tagged Batman Curve, Batman Shape, James Schloss, Monte Carlo integration, slice sampling
1 Comment

## Newt Gingrich and Van Jones. Right on.

It’s the thing. And it addresses how media and people forget about the actual statistics, and focus on the White Hot Bright Light. A study by Gelman, Fagan, and Kiss A study by Freyer A counterpoint to the Freyer study … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayes, Bayesian, citizen science, criminal justice, Daniel Kahneman, ethics, evidence, fear uncertainty and doubt, humanism, Lives Matter, logistic regression, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, organizational failures, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, risk, statistics, Susan Jacoby, the right to know
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## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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## p-values and hypothesis tests: the Bayesian(s) rule

The American Statistical Association of which I am a longtime member issued an important statement today which will hopefully move statistical practice in engineering and especially in the sciences away from the misleading practice of using p-values and hypothesis tests. … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, arXiv, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, bollocks, Christian Robert, climate, complex systems, data science, Frequentist, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, science, scientific publishing, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics, Student t distribution
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## “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## high dimension Metropolis-Hastings algorithms

If attempting to simulate from a multivariate standard normal distribution in a large dimension, when starting from the mode of the target, i.e., its mean γ, leaving the mode γis extremely unlikely, given the huge drop between the value of the density at the mode γ and at likely realisations Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, boosting, chance, Christian Robert, computation, ensembles, Gibbs Sampling, James Spall, Jerome Friedman, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical software, numerics, optimization, reasonableness, Robert Schapire, SPSA, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, Yoav Freund
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