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Category Archives: fiscal solvency

“Climate Change: Information on potential economic effects could help guide Federal efforts to reduce fiscal exposure” (GAO, September 2017)

Posted on 30 June 2019 by ecoquant

In September 2017, the U.S. General Accounting Office completed a report Climate Change: Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure. A copy is at that link. Foremost, in case anyone doubts it, there … Continue reading →

Posted in Bloomberg, climate business, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, coastal investment risks, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, corporate responsibility, corporate supply chains, corporations, ecological disruption, ecological services, ecomodernism, economics, environmental law, fiscal solvency, fossil fuel divestment, Global Carbon Project, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Michael Bloomberg, politics, pollution, Risky Business, science, science denier, Sir David King, sustainability | Leave a comment
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    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
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    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Risk and Well-Being
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    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Slice Sampling
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • Mertonian norms
    • London Review of Books
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • What If
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • Ted Dunning
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
  • climate change

    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • Skeptical Science
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    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
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    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
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    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
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    • Earth System Models
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
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    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
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    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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