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Category Archives: fiscal solvency

“Climate Change: Information on potential economic effects could help guide Federal efforts to reduce fiscal exposure” (GAO, September 2017)

Posted on 30 June 2019 by ecoquant

In September 2017, the U.S. General Accounting Office completed a report Climate Change: Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure. A copy is at that link. Foremost, in case anyone doubts it, there … Continue reading →

Posted in Bloomberg, climate business, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, coastal investment risks, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, corporate responsibility, corporate supply chains, corporations, ecological disruption, ecological services, ecomodernism, economics, environmental law, fiscal solvency, fossil fuel divestment, Global Carbon Project, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Michael Bloomberg, politics, pollution, Risky Business, science, science denier, Sir David King, sustainability | Leave a comment
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    • Earle Wilson
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Professor David Draper
    • Ted Dunning
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Healthy Home Healthy Planet
    • "The Expert"
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Label Noise
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
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    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
  • climate change

    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • Reanalyses.org
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • RealClimate
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • And Then There's Physics
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • Sea Change Boston
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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