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"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Category Archives: objective reality

“The financial crash and the climate crisis” (The New Yorker Radio Hour)

Posted on 19 October 2019 by ecoquant

A great podcast episode. Check out the thoughts of the late Professor Martin Weitzman as well, in “The man who got economists to take climate nightmares seriously“.

Posted in American Statistical Association, an uncaring American public, Anthropocene, being carbon dioxide, bifurcations, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, catastrophe modeling, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate grief, climate justice, climate mitigation, climate nightmares, climate policy, climate zombies, coastal investment risks, flooding, floods, Florida, global warming, global weirding, home resale values, Hyper Anthropocene, objective reality, oceans, Robert Young, Scituate, shorelines, Sir David King, temporal myopia, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, unreason | Leave a comment

My most political post yet … yeah, but it’s me, and Bill Maher is, most of the time, what I’m down with.

Posted on 6 January 2019 by ecoquant

Sorry, but there are distinctions to be made.

Posted in Bill Maher, objective reality | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • "The Expert"
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Karl Broman
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Professor David Draper
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Mertonian norms
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Gabriel's staircase
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • Slice Sampling
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • Earle Wilson
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
  • climate change

    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • RealClimate
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • SolarLove
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • Skeptical Science
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • Reanalyses.org
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
    • And Then There's Physics
    • Earth System Models
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
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    • That’s a silly idea, especially about a universe which is fundamentally stochastic. 30 July 2026
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    • thanks DT for making the case for solar and EVs and NOT oil 20 March 2026
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    • A New Phase in Trump’s War on Data 6 August 2025
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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