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Category Archives: objective reality

“The financial crash and the climate crisis” (The New Yorker Radio Hour)

Posted on 19 October 2019 by ecoquant

A great podcast episode. Check out the thoughts of the late Professor Martin Weitzman as well, in “The man who got economists to take climate nightmares seriously“.

Posted in American Statistical Association, an uncaring American public, Anthropocene, being carbon dioxide, bifurcations, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, catastrophe modeling, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate grief, climate justice, climate mitigation, climate nightmares, climate policy, climate zombies, coastal investment risks, flooding, floods, Florida, global warming, global weirding, home resale values, Hyper Anthropocene, objective reality, oceans, Robert Young, Scituate, shorelines, Sir David King, temporal myopia, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, unreason | Leave a comment

My most political post yet … yeah, but it’s me, and Bill Maher is, most of the time, what I’m down with.

Posted on 6 January 2019 by ecoquant

Sorry, but there are distinctions to be made.

Posted in Bill Maher, objective reality | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Label Noise
    • Ted Dunning
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • All about models
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • "The Expert"
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • London Review of Books
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Professor David Draper
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • Awkward Botany
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • James' Empty Blog
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • Gabriel's staircase
    • Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
  • climate change

    • weather blocking patterns
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • RealClimate
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Sea Change Boston
    • And Then There's Physics
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • Simple models of climate change
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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