667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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Category Archives: Patrick Stewart

“Why we need Jean-Luc Picard in 2018”

Posted on 19 August 2018 by ecoquant

Admiral Picard is returning. See the story, by Daniel W Drezner. On CBS All Access. Yes, “Make it so.”

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Buckminster Fuller, humanism, Jean-Luc Picard, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, open source scientific software, Our Children's Trust, Patrick Stewart, Principles of Planetary Climate, reason, reasonableness, science, Spaceship Earth, Star Trek, Star Trek - The Next Generation, STNG, The Demon Haunted World, the Final Frontier, tragedy of the horizon | Leave a comment
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    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • Ted Dunning
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Slice Sampling
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • All about models
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    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • Healthy Home Healthy Planet
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • Professor David Draper
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
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    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
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    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
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    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
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    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
  • climate change

    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Sea Change Boston
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
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    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
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    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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