667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Category Archives: Star Trek – The Next Generation

Buckminster Fuller: Spaceship Earth. This is the Future. And it will be, here.

Posted on 3 September 2018 by ecoquant
Posted in an ignorant American public, an uncaring American public, Buckminster Fuller, Global Carbon Project, green tech, science, Spaceship Earth, Star Trek - The Next Generation, Techno Utopias, technology, the energy of the people, the green century, the value of financial assets, tragedy of the horizon, UU Humanists | 1 Comment

“Why we need Jean-Luc Picard in 2018”

Posted on 19 August 2018 by ecoquant

Admiral Picard is returning. See the story, by Daniel W Drezner. On CBS All Access. Yes, “Make it so.”

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Buckminster Fuller, humanism, Jean-Luc Picard, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, open source scientific software, Our Children's Trust, Patrick Stewart, Principles of Planetary Climate, reason, reasonableness, science, Spaceship Earth, Star Trek, Star Trek - The Next Generation, STNG, The Demon Haunted World, the Final Frontier, tragedy of the horizon | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

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    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • Earle Wilson
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Label Noise
    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
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    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • "The Expert"
    • Gabriel's staircase
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
  • climate change

    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • SolarLove
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • weather blocking patterns
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • Reanalyses.org
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • World Weather Attribution
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
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    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • RealClimate
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • And Then There's Physics
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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