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Category Archives: Patterson’s Worm

The Rule of 135

Posted on 29 May 2017 by ecoquant

From SingingBanana.

Posted in Conway's Game of Life, dynamical systems, finite-state machines, mathematical publishing, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, Patterson's Worm, random walks, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics | Leave a comment
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    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • Gavin Simpson
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    • American Statistical Association
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
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    • James' Empty Blog
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
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    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
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    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
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    • Awkward Botany
  • climate change

    • World Weather Attribution
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • And Then There's Physics
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • Sea Change Boston
    • Ice and Snow
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • SolarLove
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Earth System Models
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • RealClimate
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • Skeptical Science
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter Arctic Ice: The Saga Continues
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