667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Category Archives: Patterson’s Worm

The Rule of 135

Posted on 29 May 2017 by ecoquant

From SingingBanana.

Posted in Conway's Game of Life, dynamical systems, finite-state machines, mathematical publishing, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, Patterson's Worm, random walks, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

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    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Professor David Draper
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
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    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • Label Noise
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    • Karl Broman
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • Earle Wilson
  • climate change

    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Ice and Snow
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • Sea Change Boston
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • World Weather Attribution
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • weather blocking patterns
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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