Category: state-space models

• “Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions”

  American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Statistical Association . Bayesian . Bayesian computational methods . causal inference . causation . changepoint detection . coronavirus . counterfactuals . COVID-19 . epidemiology . SARS-CoV-2 . state-space models . statistical series . time series

  Jul 10.2020
• What are the odds of net zero?

  dependent data . evidence . financial series . investing . investments . model-free forecasting . numerical algorithms . state-space models . statistics . time series . trading

  Jan 1.2018
• The Rule of 135

  Conway’s Game of Life . dynamical systems . finite-state machines . mathematical publishing . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . Patterson’s Worm . random walks . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics

  May 29.2017
• Just because the data lies sometimes doesn’t mean it’s okay to censor it

  Akaike Information Criterion . American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . AMETSOC . Anthropocene . Bayes . Bayesian . climate . climate change . climate models . data science . dynamical systems . ecology . Eli Rabett . environment . Ethan Deyle . George Sughihara . Hao Ye . Hyper Anthropocene . information theoretic statistics . IPCC . Kalman filter . kriging . Lenny Smith . maximum likelihood . model comparison . model-free forecasting . physics . quantitative ecology . random walk processes . random walks . science . smart data . state-space models . statistics . Takens embedding theorem . the right to know . Timothy Lenton . Victor Brovkin

  May 1.2017
• Repaired R code for Markov spatial simulation of hurricane tracks from historical trajectories

  American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . AMETSOC . Arthur Charpentier . atmosphere . diffusion . diffusion processes . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . environment . geophysics . hurricanes . Kalman filter . Kerry Emanuel . Lévy flights . Lorenz . Markov chain random fields . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . MCMC . mesh models . meteorological models . meteorology . model-free forecasting . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . numerical analysis . numerical software . oceanography . open data . open source scientific software . physics . random walk processes . random walks . science . spatial statistics . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastics . time series

  Aug 11.2016
• A model of an electrical grid: A vision

  abstraction . American Meteorological Association . anomaly detection . Anthropocene . Bloomberg New Energy Finance . BNEF . Boston . bridge to somewhere . Buckminster Fuller . Canettes Blues Band . clean disruption . climate business . climate economics . complex systems . corporate supply chains . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . differential equations . distributed generation . efficiency . EIA . electricity . electricity markets . energy . energy reduction . energy storage . energy utilities . engineering . extended supply chains . green tech . grid defection . Hermann Scheer . Hyper Anthropocene . investment in wind and solar energy . ISO-NE . Kalman filter . kriging . Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory . leaving fossil fuels in the ground . Lenny Smith . local generation . marginal energy sources . Massachusetts Clean Energy Center . Mathematics and Climate Research Network . mesh models . meteorology . microgrids . networks . New England . New York State . open data . organizational failures . pipelines . planning . prediction markets . public utility commissions . PUCs . rate of return regulation . rationality . reason . reasonableness . regime shifts . regulatory capture . resiliency . risk . Sankey diagram . smart data . solar domination . solar energy . solar power . Spaceship Earth . spatial statistics . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastics . stranded assets . supply chains . sustainability . the energy of the people . the green century . the value of financial assets . thermodynamics . time series . Tony Seba . utility company death spiral . wave equations . wind energy . wind power . zero carbon

  Aug 3.2016
• “Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of weather and climate models”

  biology . climate models . complex systems . convergent cross-mapping . data science . dynamical systems . ecology . Ethan Deyle . Floris Takens . George Sughihara . Hao Ye . likelihood-free . Lorenz . mathematics . meteorological models . model-free forecasting . physics . population biology . population dynamics . quantitative biology . quantitative ecology . Scripps Institution of Oceanography . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . stochastics . Takens embedding theorem . time series . Victor Brovkin

  Jul 24.2016
• On Smart Data

  Akaike Information Criterion . Bayes . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . big data . bigmemory package for R . changepoint detection . data science . data streams . dlm package . dynamic generalized linear models . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . Generalize Additive Models . generalized linear models . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . linear algebra . logistic regression . machine learning . Markov Chain Monte Carlo . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . maximum likelihood . MCMC . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . multivariate statistics . numerical analysis . numerical software . numerics . quantitative biology . quantitative ecology . rationality . reasonableness . sampling . smart data . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics . the right to know . time series

  Jun 11.2016
• Six cases of models

  AMETSOC . anemic data . Anthropocene . astrophysics . Bayesian . Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project . BEST . carbon dioxide . climate . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . climate models . dlm package . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . environment . fossil fuels . geophysics . Giovanni Petris . global warming . greenhouse gases . Hyper Anthropocene . information theoretic statistics . maths . maximum likelihood . meteorology . model comparison . numerical software . Patrizia Campagnoli . Rauch-Tung-Striebel . Sonia Petrone . state-space models . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . SVD . time series

  Jun 6.2016
• On Munshi mush

  Bayes . Bayesian . Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project . BEST . carbon dioxide . cat1 . climate . climate change . climate data . climate education . climate models . convergent cross-mapping . dynamic linear models . ecology . ENSO . environment . Ethan Deyle . evidence . geophysics . George Sughihara . global warming . greenhouse gases . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . mathematics . maths . meteorology . model comparison . NOAA . oceanography . prediction . state-space models . statistics . Takens embedding theorem . Techno Utopias . the right to know . theoretical physics . time series . zero carbon

  Jun 5.2016
• Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)

  Akaike Information Criterion . approximate Bayesian computation . Bayes . Bayesian . evidence . Frequentist . games of chance . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . likelihood-free . mathematics . maths . maximum likelihood . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . probabilistic programming . rationality . Rauch-Tung-Striebel . Simpson’s Paradox . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics . stochastics

  May 7.2016
• high dimension Metropolis-Hastings algorithms

  Bayes . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . boosting . chance . Christian Robert . computation . ensembles . Gibbs Sampling . James Spall . Jerome Friedman . Markov Chain Monte Carlo . mathematics . maths . MCMC . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . multivariate statistics . numerical software . numerics . optimization . reasonableness . Robert Schapire . SPSA . state-space models . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . stochastics . Yoav Freund

  Feb 6.2016
• Generating supports for classification rules in black box regression models

  approximate Bayesian computation . Bayes . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . generalized linear models . machine learning . numerical analysis . numerical software . probabilistic programming . rationality . reasonableness . state-space models . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . stochastics . support of black boxes

  Jan 25.2016
• “Causal feedbacks in climate change”

  Anthropocene . boosting . Carbon Cycle . carbon dioxide . Carbon Worshipers . cat1 . climate . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . complex systems . convergent cross-mapping . denial . differential equations . diffusion processes . dynamical systems . ecology . Egbert van Nes . empirical likelihood . ensembles . environment . Ethan Deyle . Floris Takens . forecasting . fossil fuels . geophysics . George Sughihara . global warming . greenhouse gases . Hao Ye . machine learning . Maren Scheffer . mathematics . maths . meteorology . physics . rationality . reasonableness . science . state-space models . Takens embedding theorem . time series . Timothy Lenton . Victor Brovkin

  Jan 20.2016
• After the Decade of Dithering, the Deadly Twenties

  adaptation . AMOC . Arctic . chance . changepoint detection . climate . climate change . climate disruption . critical slowing down . ecology . engineering . geoengineering . global warming . greenhouse gases . Hyper Anthropocene . ignorance . James Hansen . MIchael Mann . mitigation . oceanography . physics . politics . rationality . reasonableness . regime shifts . science . science education . state-space models . statistics . the right to know . thermohaline circulation . time series

  Jan 6.2016
• dynamic linear model applied to sea-level-rise anomalies

  Bayesian . citizen science . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . dynamic linear models . floods . forecasting . Frequentist . global warming . icesheets . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . meteorology . open data . sea level rise . state-space models . statistics . time series

  Dec 11.2015
• Thoughts on “Regime Shift?”

  Bayesian . changepoint detection . climate change . climate disruption . climate models . dynamic linear models . ecology . ensembles . environment . global warming . population biology . Rauch-Tung-Striebel . regime shifts . state-space models . stochastic algorithms . time series

  Dec 3.2015
• Southern Oscillation (SOI) correlated with Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)

  AMETSOC . bifurcations . carbon dioxide . climate . climate change . climate disruption . climate models . Dan Satterfield . differential equations . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . ENSO . environment . forecasting . generalized linear models . geophysics . global warming . greenhouse gases . IPCC . Mathematica . mathematics . maths . meteorology . NCAR . NOAA . numerical software . oceanography . open data . physics . population biology . Principles of Planetary Climate . rationality . reasonableness . science . Spaceship Earth . state-space models . thermodynamics . time series

  Nov 12.2015
• Southern New England Meteorology Conference, 24th October 2015

  Anthropocene . capricious gods . climate . Dan Satterfield . dynamical systems . ensembles . ENSO . environment . floods . forecasting . geophysics . Hyper Anthropocene . information theoretic statistics . mesh models . meteorology . model comparison . NCAR . NOAA . nor’easters . oceanography . probability . science . spatial statistics . state-space models . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . stochastics . time series

  Oct 25.2015
• STUFF IN PROGRESS

  numerical analysis . planning . R . rationality . reasonableness . state-space models . statistics

  Sep 9.2015
• Your future: Antarctica, in detail

  Antarctica . Anthropocene . bridge to nowhere . climate . climate change . climate disruption . climate zombies . disingenuity . ecology . ensembles . forecasting . geophysics . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . ignorance . IPCC . Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory . LBNL . living shorelines . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . mesh models . meteorology . multivariate statistics . numerical software . optimization . physics . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . science education . sea level rise . spatial statistics . state-space models . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastics . supercomputers . temporal myopia . the right to know . thermodynamics . time series . University of California Berkeley . WAIS

  Aug 18.2015
• SCIENCE OF DOOM takes on assessing zero Carbon power and a zero Carbon grid

  adaptation . Anthropocene . clean disruption . climate data . climate disruption . conservation . consumption . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . destructive economic development . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . economics . efficiency . energy . energy reduction . engineering . environment . exponential growth . forecasting . fossil fuel divestment . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . investing . investment in wind and solar energy . microgrids . open data . optimization . prediction . rationality . reasonableness . risk . solar power . state-space models . stochastics . sustainability . the right to know . time series . wind power . Wordpress . zero carbon

  Aug 4.2015
• Comprehensive and compact tutorial on Petris’ DLM package in R; with an update about Helske’s KFAS

  Bayes . Bayesian . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . forecasting . Kalman filter . mathematics . maths . multivariate statistics . numerical software . open source scientific software . prediction . R . Rauch-Tung-Striebel . state-space models . statistics . stochastic algorithms . SVD . time series

  Jul 29.2015
• Why decentralized electrical power has to win, no matter what Elon Musk says, and utilities are doomed

  bridge to nowhere . carbon dioxide . Carbon Tax . citizenship . clean disruption . climate . climate change . climate disruption . climate education . compassion . conservation . consumption . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . diffusion processes . dynamical systems . ecology . economics . efficiency . energy . energy reduction . engineering . environment . ethics . exponential growth . forecasting . fossil fuel divestment . geophysics . global warming . investing . investment in wind and solar energy . living shorelines . mass transit . mathematics education . maths . meteorology . microgrids . natural gas . NCAR . NOAA . nor’easters . obfuscating data . oceanography . open data . optimization . physics . politics . population biology . Principles of Planetary Climate . rationality . Ray Pierrehumbert . reasonableness . reproducible research . risk . science . science education . scientific publishing . Scripps Institution of Oceanography . solar power . state-space models . statistics . temporal myopia . testing . the right to know . time series . wind power . zero carbon

  Jun 16.2015
• On the Climate Club

  citizenship . civilization . climate . climate change . climate disruption . climate education . ecology . economics . education . environment . ethics . geophysics . global warming . humanism . investing . investment in wind and solar energy . IPCC . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . meteorology . NASA . NCAR . NOAA . open data . open source scientific software . politics . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . science education . sociology . state-space models . statistics . stochastic search . stochastics . sustainability . temporal myopia . time series . transparency . Unitarian Universalism . UU Humanists . wind power . zero carbon

  Jun 3.2015
• The CWSLab workflow tool: an experiment in community code development

  climate . climate education . climate models . computation . differential equations . dynamical systems . environment . forecasting . geophysics . global warming . IPCC . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . meteorology . model comparison . NCAR . oceanography . open source scientific software . physics . Principles of Planetary Climate . Python 3 . rationality . reasonableness . science . science education . state-space models . statistics . time series . transparency

  Jun 2.2015
• A promise forward …

  chance . citizenship . ecology . ENSO . environment . floods . forecasting . geophysics . meteorology . politics . precipitation . rationality . state-space models . statistics . stochastics

  May 24.2015
• Dynamic Linear Models package, dlmodeler

  Bayesian . geophysics . mathematics . maths . oceanography . open source scientific software . Python 3 . R . science . sea level rise . state-space models . statistics . stochastic algorithms . time series

  Mar 13.2015