667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Tag Archives: bare truth

“Mad as a Hatter” : Larkin Poe

Posted on 29 September 2020 by ecoquant
Posted in Larkin Poe | Tagged bare truth, Larkin Poe | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Karl Broman
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • Ted Dunning
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Earle Wilson
    • Slice Sampling
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • Professor David Draper
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • All about models
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • What If
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
  • climate change

    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • Skeptical Science
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • RealClimate
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • World Weather Attribution
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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