Recipe for a hiatus


Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology

Fake climate sceptics love the hiatus, the period since the strong El Niño in 1998 where global mean temperature has not increased according to their simplistic notions of global warming. The longer the “hiatus”, the more they can deny that climate change will be a problem this century.  This gives an incentive for developing methods that report the longest possible hiatus, ideally without obviously cherry-picking the start date.

Professor Ross McKitrick has a new paper in the ever so prestigious Open Journal of Statistics where he reports that the hiatus started in the HadCRUT4 global temperature record in 1995 to the delight of severalclimatescepticblogs.

McKitrick uses a regression technique that is supposed to be robust to heteroscedasticity (unequal variance) and autocorrelation to find the trend in the temperature time series. He starts with the last five years of data and tests if the trend is statistically different from zero, i.e. does the 95% confidence interval…

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About hypergeometric

See http://www.linkedin.com/in/deepdevelopment/ and http://667-per-cm.net
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