`Hermine Unique among Storms’

Post-tropical storm Hermine is the story of the emergence of weather chimeras.

Simple. The forecasting precedents have changed. We cannot look to the past to anticipate the future any longer. We’re playing by different rules. And we don’t know what their implications are, because the experiment has never been run before. We’re running it. And we have no idea what will happen.

But we’re continuing it nonetheless. This hasn’t been anticipated. This hasn’t be war-gamed.

See also Eric Holthaus’ opinion, and another view he has, about risk.

Welcome to the Hyper Anthropocene.

Climate Denial Crock of the Week


Hermine still developing. Predictions are for it to hold in place off the East Coast for several days, due to a blocking pattern known as a “Rex Block”.  This and many gems from Eric Holthaus’ update, excerpted here.

Unusually placed, for a weather/climate piece, at election/polling guru Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com.

Eric Holthaus at FiveThirtyEight:

Based on the current forecasts, Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine is a storm without a good historical comparison. Hermine was once a tropical cyclone that made landfall in Florida, but that seems like ages ago. It has now transitioned to its post-tropical stage after moving northeast across land, off the coast of North Carolina, where it’s partially drawing energy from the jet stream. Hermine is forecast to affect the Mid-Atlantic over the next several days as a hurricane-strength storm, with a potentially historic coastal flood.

Of the 10 or so meteorologists I’ve talked to in the last…

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About ecoquant

See https://wordpress.com/view/667-per-cm.net/ Retired data scientist and statistician. Now working projects in quantitative ecology and, specifically, phenology of Bryophyta and technical methods for their study.
This entry was posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, bifurcations, changepoint detection, climate disruption, coastal communities, Dan Satterfield, ecology, environment, global warming, hurricanes, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorological models, meteorology, nor'easters, oceanic eddies, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, science, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, thermodynamics. Bookmark the permalink.

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