Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Gavin Simpson
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- "The Expert"
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Gabriel's staircase
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Earle Wilson
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Ted Dunning
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Awkward Botany
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- What If
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- American Statistical Association
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
climate change
- And Then There's Physics
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- The Sunlight Economy
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Social Cost of Carbon
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Risk and Well-Being
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- World Weather Attribution
- Reanalyses.org
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- weather blocking patterns
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Warming slowdown discussion
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- RealClimate
- Ice and Snow
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- SolarLove
- Earth System Models
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: anomaly detection
Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths with uncertainties
I. Introduction. It’s time to fulfill the promise made in “Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths“, a blog post from 2nd May 2020, and produce the same with uncertainty clouds about the functional trajectories(*). To begin, here are some assumptions … Continue reading
Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Harvey, anomaly detection, count data regression, COVID-19, dependent data, dlm package, Durbin and Koopman, dynamic linear models, epidemiology, filtering, forecasting, Kalman filter, LaTeX, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical algorithms, numerical linear algebra, population biology, population dynamics, prediction, R, R statistical programming language, regression, statistical learning, stochastic algorithms
Tagged prediction intervals
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Acceleration in rise of Global Mean Sea Level (Yi, Heki, Qian, from 2017)
Most impressive! This is Figure 2 of S. Yi, K. Heki, A. Qian, “Acceleration in the global mean sea level rise: 2005-2015”, 2017, Geophysical Research Letters: See also their data supplement. Of particular interest to me is their use of … Continue reading
Repeating Bullshit
Yeah, how much was it? And was it different? I mean, not based on how Curry or Tisdale feel, but by the numbers.
No, Senator Marco Rubio and Larry Kudlow, we know how much humans contribute to climate change, at least precisely enough for Congress and an administration
14th October 2018, quoting Senator Marco Rubio and White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow, the Washington Post reported they each claimed that the recent UN report was an `overestimate`: “I think they overestimate,” Kudlow said of the U.N. report, which … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, anomaly detection, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, being carbon dioxide, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, bollocks, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, children as political casualties, climate change, climate data, evidence, global warming, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, Juliana v United States, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, physics, radiative forcing, science, science denier, tragedy of the horizon, UNFCCC, unreason
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Sea-level report cards, contingency upon model character, and ensemble methods
Done by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, new sea-level report cards offer a look at current sea-level rise rates, and projections. What’s interesting to me is making the projections conditional upon the character of the model used to project. … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, Bayesian model averaging, changepoint detection, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, coastal communities, coasts, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, flooding, geophysics, global warming, Grant Foster, Hyper Anthropocene, ice sheet dynamics, icesheets, living shorelines, meteorological models, nonlinear systems, prediction, sea level rise, shorelines, Skeptical Science, spaghetti plots, temporal myopia, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the value of financial assets, tragedy of the horizon
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Less evidence for a global warming hiatus, and urging more use of Bayesian model averaging in climate science
(This post has been significantly updated midday 15th February 2018.) I’ve written about the supposed global warming hiatus of 2001-2014 before: “‘Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years’ (Fyfe, Gillett, Zwiers, 2013)”, 28 August 2013 “Warming Slowdown?”, Azimuth, Part … Continue reading
Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Parnell, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bayesian, Bayesian model averaging, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, climate change, David Spiegelhalter, dependent data, Dublin, GISTEMP, global warming, Grant Foster, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, JAGS, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, MCMC, model-free forecasting, Niamh Cahill, Significance, statistics, Stefan Rahmstorf, Tamino
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reality of natural gas prices: volatile, undependable, and contrary to social interest
Updated, 11th January 2018 There’s been a lot written about natural gas, New England, and supposed price spikes due to constraints on pipeline capacity. I’ve had my turn a couple of times here (and here), as a matter of fact … Continue reading
Posted in Amory Lovins, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, clean disruption, Cult of Carbon, decentralized electric power generation, distributed generation, electricity markets, evidence, explosive methane, financial series, fossil fuel infrastructure, fossil fuels, gas pipeline leaks, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, local generation, local self reliance, natural gas, pipelines, public utility commissions, rate of return regulation, regulatory capture, reworking infrastructure, rights of the inhabitants of the Commonwealth, risk, stranded assets, supply chains, the stack of lies, the tragedy of our present civilization, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, zero carbon
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Eli on “Tom [Karl]’s trick and experimental design“
A very fine post at Eli’s blog for students of statistics, meteorology, and climate (like myself) titled: Tom’s trick and experimental design Excerpt: This and the graph from Menne at the top shows that Karl’s trick is working. Although we … Continue reading
Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, climate, climate change, climate data, data science, evidence, experimental design, generalized linear mixed models, GISTEMP, GLMMs, global warming, model comparison, model-free forecasting, reblog, sampling, sampling networks
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How to Describe Numbers
Source: How to Describe Numbers from the Stats With Cats blog.
`Letter to Lamar Smith’
On Ed Hawkins’ blog. The Committee on Science, Space & Technology of the US House of Representatives conducts regular evidence hearings on various science topics. On Wednesday 29th March, there is a hearing on “Climate science: assumptions, policy implications, and … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anemic data, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Ben Santer, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, Climate Lab Book, climate zombies, dependent data, environment, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, meteorology, MIchael Mann, Our Children's Trust, physics, science, smoothing, statistical dependence, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, time series
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Zeke Hausfather regarding Baselines and Buoys
Zeke Hausfather at And Then There’s Physics regarding Baselines and Buoys.
Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, climate, climate data, climate zombies, denial, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, NOAA, oceanography
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Gas leaks along the pathway of the newly built West Roxbury Lateral transmission line
(This blog post was updated 19th January 2017 with a correction to the interpretation of the leak data. The correction was offered by Professor Phillips. The blog author is responsible for the original misunderstanding. Apologies for any inconvenience.) The West … Continue reading
Posted in anomaly detection, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, energy utilities, environment, ethics, evidence, explosive methane, fossil fuel infrastructure, fossil fuels, gas pipeline leaks, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, methane, Nathan Phillips, natural gas, networks, pipelines, public utility commissions, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, ``The tide is risin'/And so are we''
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What’s going on in the ocean off the Northeast United States
Hint: Climate change has somethin’ to do with it. Schematic diagram illustrating the component parts of the AMOC and the 26◦ N observing system. Black arrows represent the Ekman transport (predominantly northward). Red arrows illustrate the circulation of warm waters … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, bifurcations, climate, climate change, climate disruption, coastal communities, critical slowing down, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, fluid dynamics, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, John Marshall, meteorology, oceanic eddies, oceanography, physics, regime shifts, science, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sea level rise, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, thermohaline circulation, WHOI, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
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“Predicting annual temperatures a year ahead” (Dr Gavin Schmidt at REALCLIMATE)
Dr Schmidt is essentially betting that the trend, seen as a random variable, will regress towards the smooth mean. I have a post at Nate Silver’s 538 site on how we can predict annual surface temperature anomalies based on El … Continue reading
Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, changepoint detection, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, oceanography, physics, regression toward the mean, science, statistics, time series
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Bastardi’s Bust
Famous climate denialist Joe Bastari of WeatherBELL Analytics LLC, formerly of Accuweather.com made a prediction on Arctic ice recovery back in 2010 (when at AccuWeather), and observations have since made his “studies” laughable. I have heard his colleague, Joseph D’Aleo … Continue reading
Posted in Accuweather, American Meteorological Association, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Arctic, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, coasts, ecology, environment, evidence, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ice sheet dynamics, meteorology, NOAA, science denier, shorelines, statistics, Stefan Rahmstorf, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the stack of lies, the tragedy of our present civilization, time series
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`Hermine Unique among Storms’
Post-tropical storm Hermine is the story of the emergence of weather chimeras. Simple. The forecasting precedents have changed. We cannot look to the past to anticipate the future any longer. We’re playing by different rules. And we don’t know what … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, bifurcations, changepoint detection, climate disruption, coastal communities, Dan Satterfield, ecology, environment, global warming, hurricanes, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorological models, meteorology, nor'easters, oceanic eddies, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, science, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, thermodynamics
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Can the City of Boston adapt to and help mitigate climate disruption?
(See the major update at the bottom of this post as well.) (On “Less Science and More Social Science” at And Then There’s Physics) And Then There’s Physics is one of my favorite blogs discussing climate disruption and related policy … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bill Nye, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bollocks, Boston, bridge to somewhere, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate business, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, climate justice, Daniel Kahneman, destructive economic development, economics, engineering, environment, finance, floods, forecasting, Gaylord Nelson, global warming, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, insurance, investing, John Englander, Joseph Schumpeter, Kerry Emanuel, MA, Massachusetts, meteorology, Minsky moment, nor'easters, organizational failures, politics, risk, sea level rise, sociology, statistics, supply chains, sustainability, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets
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A model of an electrical grid: A vision
Many people seem to view the electrical grid of the future being much like the present one. I think a lot about networks, because of my job. And I especially think a lot about network topologies, although primarily concerning the … Continue reading
Posted in abstraction, American Meteorological Association, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, Boston, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, Canettes Blues Band, clean disruption, climate business, climate economics, complex systems, corporate supply chains, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, differential equations, distributed generation, efficiency, EIA, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, extended supply chains, green tech, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Kalman filter, kriging, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Lenny Smith, local generation, marginal energy sources, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, mesh models, meteorology, microgrids, networks, New England, New York State, open data, organizational failures, pipelines, planning, prediction markets, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, regulatory capture, resiliency, risk, Sankey diagram, smart data, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, stranded assets, supply chains, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the value of financial assets, thermodynamics, time series, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wave equations, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon
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Bayesian blocks via PELT in R
Notice of Update I have made some changes to the Bayesian Blocks code linked from here, on 24th November 2021. Also I note the coming and going of a “BayesianBlocks” package on CRAN which contained an optinterval function also based upon … Continue reading
Posted in American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, astrophysics, Cauchy distribution, changepoint detection, engineering, geophysics, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, oceanography, population biology, population dynamics, Python 3, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, Scargle, spatial statistics, square wave approximation, statistics, stepwise approximation, time series, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
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ecoquant
