667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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Category Archives: Ernest Moniz

On the Nuclear option

Posted on 1 December 2020 by ecoquant

Where does a state government turn when they have a strong mandate to remove fossil fuels from electricity generation, heating, cooling, and transportation? Suppose they proposed a cross-border hydropower purchase from Quebec? Suppose they planned to roll out land-based wind, … Continue reading →

Posted in alternatives to the Green New Deal, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Solar Energy Society, an uncaring American public, atmosphere, Ørsted, Benji Backer, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, bridge to somewhere, Cape Wind, carbon dioxide, CleanTechnica, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate mitigation, climate nightmares, climate policy, climate science, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, ecomodernism, ecopragmatism, electricity, electricity markets, energy utilities, environment, Ernest Moniz, Falmouth, fossil fuel divestment, global warming, greenhouse gases, investment in wind and solar energy, New England, nuclear power, NuScale, ocean warming, On being Carbon Dioxide, photovoltaics, solar energy, stranded assets, technology, the green century, Tokarska and Zickfield, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • London Review of Books
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Karl Broman
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • Mertonian norms
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • Label Noise
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Gabriel's staircase
    • Awkward Botany
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • What If
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Ted Dunning
    • American Statistical Association
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Professor David Draper
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
  • climate change

    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • Earth System Models
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Simple models of climate change
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • And Then There's Physics
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Sea Change Boston
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
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    • Climate Facts from James Hansen and Makiko Sato Ahead of COP26 14 October 2021
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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