667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Category Archives: Ernest Moniz

On the Nuclear option

Posted on 1 December 2020 by ecoquant

Where does a state government turn when they have a strong mandate to remove fossil fuels from electricity generation, heating, cooling, and transportation? Suppose they proposed a cross-border hydropower purchase from Quebec? Suppose they planned to roll out land-based wind, … Continue reading →

Posted in alternatives to the Green New Deal, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Solar Energy Society, an uncaring American public, atmosphere, Ørsted, Benji Backer, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, bridge to somewhere, Cape Wind, carbon dioxide, CleanTechnica, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate mitigation, climate nightmares, climate policy, climate science, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, ecomodernism, ecopragmatism, electricity, electricity markets, energy utilities, environment, Ernest Moniz, Falmouth, fossil fuel divestment, global warming, greenhouse gases, investment in wind and solar energy, New England, nuclear power, NuScale, ocean warming, On being Carbon Dioxide, photovoltaics, solar energy, stranded assets, technology, the green century, Tokarska and Zickfield, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • Karl Broman
    • Slice Sampling
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • Mertonian norms
    • Earle Wilson
    • American Statistical Association
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Healthy Home Healthy Planet
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
    • "The Expert"
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • All about models
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • Awkward Botany
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • Ted Dunning
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Professor David Draper
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
  • climate change

    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Simple models of climate change
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • RealClimate
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • Ice and Snow
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • And Then There's Physics
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
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    • Yeah, like many aspects of the biosphere, forests and their contribution to sequestering Carbon is complicated 21 October 2021
    • Dr Gilbz 20 October 2021
    • In the field 19 October 2021
    • Climate Facts from James Hansen and Makiko Sato Ahead of COP26 14 October 2021
    • An Open Letter from U.S. Scientists Imploring President Biden to End the Fossil Fuel Era 9 October 2021
    • “It’s the exact opposite.” 7 October 2021
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    • “I don’t want my grandchildren to suffer” XR 5 October 2021
    • Stopping climate disruption and eating cookies 5 October 2021
    • Myths 5 October 2021
    • Stephen Fry on XR 5 October 2021
    • A very recent Bill McKibben on Where We Are 1 October 2021
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    • Meet Solkjøring 28 September 2021
    • Greta, YouthCOP, 2021 28 September 2021
    • First Contact, and the Long Now Foundation 26 September 2021
    • Vineyard Sound, Rhode Island Sound, August, 2021 17 September 2021
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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