667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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Category Archives: Jane Lubchenco

`Environmental science in a post-truth world’ (Lubchenco and Kammen)

Posted on 1 February 2017 by ecoquant

Jane Lubchenco is a Professor at Oregon State University, and was administrator of the U.S. NOAA from 2009 through 2013, the U.S. Science Envoy for the Ocean at the State Department from 2014 to 2016, and the president of the … Continue reading →

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, being carbon dioxide, Buckminster Fuller, climate, climate change, coastal communities, coasts, ecological services, ecology, environment, environmental law, evidence, global warming, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, Jane Lubchenco, marine biology, mass extinctions, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, risk, science, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, T'kun Olam, temporal myopia, the tragedy of our present civilization | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • London Review of Books
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Karl Broman
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • Awkward Botany
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • "The Expert"
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • Label Noise
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • Gavin Simpson
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Mertonian norms
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • What If
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • American Statistical Association
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • Number Cruncher Politics
  • climate change

    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • weather blocking patterns
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Earth System Models
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • RealClimate
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Ice and Snow
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • Skeptical Science
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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