### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Awkward Botany
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Mertonian norms
- Gabriel's staircase
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- All about Sankey diagrams
- James' Empty Blog
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Gavin Simpson
- Earle Wilson
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- "The Expert"
- Professor David Draper
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- What If
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Label Noise
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense

### climate change

- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- David Appell's early climate science
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- SolarLove
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- MIT's Climate Primer
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Spectra Energy exposed
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- World Weather Attribution
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- weather blocking patterns
- Sea Change Boston
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Social Cost of Carbon
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Earth System Models

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Akaike Information Criterion

## Series, symmetrized Normalized Compressed Divergences and their logit transforms

(Major update on 11th January 2019. Minor update on 16th January 2019.) On comparing things The idea of a calculating a distance between series for various purposes has received scholarly attention for quite some time. The most common application is … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, bridge to somewhere, computation, content-free inference, data science, descriptive statistics, divergence measures, engineering, George Sughihara, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, machine learning, mathematics, model comparison, model-free forecasting, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series
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## `Environmental science in a post-truth world’ (Lubchenco and Kammen)

Jane Lubchenco is a Professor at Oregon State University, and was administrator of the U.S. NOAA from 2009 through 2013, the U.S. Science Envoy for the Ocean at the State Department from 2014 to 2016, and the president of the … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, being carbon dioxide, Buckminster Fuller, climate, climate change, coastal communities, coasts, ecological services, ecology, environment, environmental law, evidence, global warming, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, Jane Lubchenco, marine biology, mass extinctions, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, risk, science, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, T'kun Olam, temporal myopia, the tragedy of our present civilization
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## Why smooth?

I’ve encountered a number of blog posts this week which seem not to understand the Bias-Variance Tradeoff in regard to Mean-Squared-Error. These arose in connection with smoothing splines, which I was studying in connection with multivariate adaptive regression splines, that … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, American Statistical Association, Antarctica, carbon dioxide, climate change, denial, global warming, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, multivariate adaptive regression splines, non-parametric model, science denier, smoothing, splines, statistical dependence
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## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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## Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)

(Updated 2016-05-08, to provide reference for plateaus of ML functions in vicinity of MLE.) Simpson’s Paradox is one of those phenomena of data which really give Statistics a substance and a role, beyond the roles it inherits from, say, theoretical … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, evidence, Frequentist, games of chance, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, likelihood-free, mathematics, maths, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, probabilistic programming, rationality, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Simpson's Paradox, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics
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