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“Merchants of Doubt: What Climate Deniers Learned from Big Tobacco”

Posted on 26 February 2015 by ecoquant
Posted in carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate education, ecology, economics, education, environment, ethics, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, history, humanism, investing, IPCC, meteorology, new forms of scientific peer review, obfuscating data, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, scientific publishing, sociology | Tagged advertising, doubt is our product | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • Gabriel's staircase
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Slice Sampling
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Ted Dunning
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • Professor David Draper
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Healthy Home Healthy Planet
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • American Statistical Association
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • Karl Broman
    • Gavin Simpson
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • "The Expert"
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Earle Wilson
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
  • climate change

    • RealClimate
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • And Then There's Physics
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • weather blocking patterns
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • World Weather Attribution
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • Ice and Snow
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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