Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Risk and Well-Being
- Earle Wilson
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Label Noise
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- What If
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Mertonian norms
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Gabriel's staircase
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Ted Dunning
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- James' Empty Blog
climate change
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- David Appell's early climate science
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- RealClimate
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Reanalyses.org
- Risk and Well-Being
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- The Sunlight Economy
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- SolarLove
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- weather blocking patterns
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Climate model projections versus observations
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Social Cost of Carbon
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Sea Change Boston
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Bayes vs the virial theorem
This entry was posted in Bayesian, mathematics, maths, MCMC, reasonableness, science, statistics. Bookmark the permalink.
ecoquant
Apologies for the name confounding, Ewan!
Hi Jan,
The maximum likelihood, errors-in-variable method with selection of predictor variables by profile likelihood ratios described by Hannart et al is (as they acknowledge) quite an ‘old-fashioned’ statistical technique. There’s nothing ‘wrong’ with it per se, but I imagine due to the availability of fast codes for implementing the equivalent Bayesian model (e.g. R or STAN) many (perhaps most?) statisticians outside geophys would go Bayes. Bayesian model selection (or, for the prediction problem, model averaging) of course requires some care to check for sensitivity of the output to the parameter priors. But I would think it could have a lot of potential here owing to its flexibility: e.g. the errors don’t have to be assumed Normal (perhaps fat-tailed distributions make more sense), and/or the predictor variable set could be expanded to include variables for which one might not have observations at all places / time-points via data augmentation (e.g. http://amstat.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/jasa.2011.tm10518?src=recsys ).
cheers, Ewan (not Drew: but i get the confusion from my username which omits the periods in dr.ewan.cameron)
Thanks Drew! I’ll need to dig into that some time soon. (At least I’ll try.) Doesn’t really look too bad … I’m familiar with Polya urns, and stick-breaking processes are the heart of the Bayesian bootstrap which, in my immediate world, finds its way into Bayesian approaches for finite population sampling (Ghosh and Meeden).
I have SO many things to read, meaning study! Doing a lot of writing, too.
On the error in all variables problem, there’s a major paper on the climate science front,
A. Hannart, A. Ribes, and P. Naveau, “Optimal fingerprinting under multiple sources of uncertainty”, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058653
which I need to give priority.
There’s also one with an intriguing title and abstract, but I don’t know if it’s special or not:
D. Williamson, A. T. Blaker, “Evolving Bayesian Emulators for Structured Chaotic Time Series, with Application to Large Climate Models”, http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/120900915, 2014.
One update to my thoughts on non-parametric error models for semi-parametric Bayesian analyses: one limitation of the Dirichlet Process is that its concentration parameter controls both the ‘spike-iness’ of its realisations *and* their allowed ‘deviation’ from the reference distribution, so it may be worth exploring the more general class of Chinese restaurant processes reviewed thoroughly and explained (at a rather sophisticated level) by Zhou and Carin in “Negative Binomial Process Count and Mixture Modelling”.