Category: Bayesian

• Origins of “modern” hypothesis testing

  Bayesian . hypothesis testing . John Arbuthnot . Ronald W Fisher

  Aug 29.2020
• “Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions”

  American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Statistical Association . Bayesian . Bayesian computational methods . causal inference . causation . changepoint detection . coronavirus . counterfactuals . COVID-19 . epidemiology . SARS-CoV-2 . state-space models . statistical series . time series

  Jul 10.2020
• Oldie and Goodie: `Testing a point Null Hypothesis: The irreconcilability of p-values and evidence’

  American Statistical Association . Bayes . Bayesian . p-value

  Apr 5.2020
• “Bayesian replication analysis” (by John Kruschke)

  American Statistical Association . Bayesian . John Kruschke . model comparison . rationality . rhetorical statistics . statistical models . statistics . Student t distribution

  Sep 1.2019
• “Ten Fatal Flaws in Data Analysis” (Charles Kufs)

  Bayesian . Bayesian computational methods . Charlie Kufs . George Sugihara . sampling . sampling algorithms . statistics . yves tille

  Jun 30.2019
• A response to a post on RealClimate

  American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . AMETSOC . Bayesian . climate change . ecology . Ecology Action . environment . evidence . experimental design . Frequentist . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . machine learning . model comparison . model-free forecasting . multivariate statistics . science . science denier . statistical series . statistics . time series

  Jun 26.2019
• Still a climate hawk, and appreciate all my climate friends: To the climate deniers, the greenwashers, the liberal environmental opportunists, and the environmental purists who will never compromise …

  American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Statistical Association . Anthropocene . Bayesian . climate change . climate disruption . climate economics . climate grief . coastal investment risks . ecological disruption . ecological services . ecomodernism . ecopragmatism . engineering . environment . flooding . global warming . Grant Foster . Humans have a lot to answer for . Hyper Anthropocene . investment in wind and solar energy . investments . Joseph Schumpeter . Mathematics and Climate Research Network . mathematics education . personal purity . population biology . quantitative biology . quantitative ecology . regulatory capture . risk . riverine flooding . sampling without replacement . Scituate . secularism . shorelines . solar democracy . solar domination . solar energy . Solar Freakin’ Roadways . solar power . SolarPV.tv . Spaceship Earth . statistical dependence . SunPower . the energy of the people . the green century . the tragedy of our present civilization . the value of financial assets . tragedy of the horizon . Unitarian Universalism . unreason . utility company death spiral . UU Needham . Wally Broecker . Walt Disney Company . Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution . “The tide is risin’/And so are we”

  Apr 4.2019
• A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

  American Statistical Association . Bayesian . Bayesian computational methods . count data regression . dichotomising continuous variables . dynamic generalized linear models . Frank Harrell . Frequentist . Generalize Additive Models . generalized linear mixed models . generalized linear models . GLMMs . GLMs . John Kruschke . maximum likelihood . model comparison . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . multivariate statistics . nonlinear . numerical software . numerics . premature categorization . probit regression . statistical regression . statistics

  Sep 11.2018
• These are ethical “AI Principles” from Google, but they might as well be `technological principles’

  American Statistical Association . artificial intelligence . basic research . Bayesian . Boston Ethical Society . complex systems . computation . corporate citizenship . corporate responsibility . deep recurrent neural networks . emergent organization . ethical ideals . ethics . extended producer responsibility . friends and colleagues . Google . Google Pixel 2 . humanism . investments . machine learning . mathematics . moral leadership . natural philosophy . politics . risk . science . secularism . technology . The Demon Haunted World . the right to know . Unitarian Universalism . UU . UU Humanists

  Jun 28.2018
• Less evidence for a global warming hiatus, and urging more use of Bayesian model averaging in climate science

  American Statistical Association . Andrew Parnell . anomaly detection . Anthropocene . Bayesian . Bayesian model averaging . Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project . BEST . climate change . David Spiegelhalter . dependent data . Dublin . GISTEMP . global warming . Grant Foster . HadCRUT4 . hiatus . Hyper Anthropocene . JAGS . Markov Chain Monte Carlo . Martyn Plummer . Mathematics and Climate Research Network . MCMC . model-free forecasting . Niamh Cahill . Significance . statistics . Stefan Rahmstorf . Tamino

  Feb 14.2018
• perceptions of likelihood

  anti-intellectualism . Bayes . Bayesian . economics . fear uncertainty and doubt . games of chance . reason . risk . secularism . statistics . the right to be and act stupid . the right to know . the tragedy of our present civilization . unreason

  Jan 4.2018
• Confidence intervals and that IPCC: Why climate scientists need statistical help

  Bayesian . climate . IPCC . statistics

  Dec 28.2017
• A “capacity for sustained muddle-headedness”

  American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Statistical Association . anemic data . Bayesian . cardiovascular system . David Spiegelhalter . machine learning . Massachusetts Institute of Technology . medicine . Paul Lauenstein . rationality . reason . reasonableness . risk . statistics

  Jul 7.2017
• Dikran Marsupial’s excellent bit on hypothesis testing applied to climate, or how it should be applied, if at all

  Anthropocene . anti-science . Bayesian . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . D. K. Marsupial . Frequentist . global warming . hiatus . Hyper Anthropocene . ignorance . John Kruschke . regime shifts . statistics . Student t distribution

  May 30.2017
• Just because the data lies sometimes doesn’t mean it’s okay to censor it

  Akaike Information Criterion . American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . AMETSOC . Anthropocene . Bayes . Bayesian . climate . climate change . climate models . data science . dynamical systems . ecology . Eli Rabett . environment . Ethan Deyle . George Sughihara . Hao Ye . Hyper Anthropocene . information theoretic statistics . IPCC . Kalman filter . kriging . Lenny Smith . maximum likelihood . model comparison . model-free forecasting . physics . quantitative ecology . random walk processes . random walks . science . smart data . state-space models . statistics . Takens embedding theorem . the right to know . Timothy Lenton . Victor Brovkin

  May 1.2017
• “You don’t have that option.”

  American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . AMETSOC . Bayesian . citizen data . citizen science . Climate Lab Book . Earth Day . ecological services . ecology . environment . Hyper Anthropocene . Neill deGrasse Tyson . Principles of Planetary Climate . rationality . Ray Pierrehumbert . reason . reasonableness . religion . science . science education . Science magazine . scientific publishing . secularism . Spaceship Earth . sustainability . the right to be and act stupid . the right to know . the tragedy of our present civilization . United States . XKCD

  Apr 21.2017
• Papers of the day

  American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Statistical Association . approximate Bayesian computation . Bayesian . civilization . computation . denial . education . engineering . evidence . free flow of labor . physics . science . science education . statistics

  Mar 8.2017
• David Spiegelhalter on `how to spot a dodgy statistic’

  abstraction . anemic data . Bayes . Bayesian . chance . citizenship . civilization . corruption . Daniel Kahneman . disingenuity . Donald Trump . education . games of chance . ignorance . maths . moral leadership . obfuscating data . open data . perceptions . politics . rationality . reason . reasonableness . rhetoric . risk . sampling . science . sociology . statistics . the right to know

  Jul 21.2016
• Newt Gingrich and Van Jones. Right on.

  American Statistical Association . Bayes . Bayesian . citizen science . criminal justice . Daniel Kahneman . ethics . evidence . fear uncertainty and doubt . humanism . Lives Matter . logistic regression . Markov Chain Monte Carlo . MCMC . organizational failures . population biology . rationality . reasonableness . risk . statistics . Susan Jacoby . the right to know

  Jul 16.2016
• On Smart Data

  Akaike Information Criterion . Bayes . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . big data . bigmemory package for R . changepoint detection . data science . data streams . dlm package . dynamic generalized linear models . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . Generalize Additive Models . generalized linear models . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . linear algebra . logistic regression . machine learning . Markov Chain Monte Carlo . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . maximum likelihood . MCMC . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . multivariate statistics . numerical analysis . numerical software . numerics . quantitative biology . quantitative ecology . rationality . reasonableness . sampling . smart data . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics . the right to know . time series

  Jun 11.2016
• Six cases of models

  AMETSOC . anemic data . Anthropocene . astrophysics . Bayesian . Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project . BEST . carbon dioxide . climate . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . climate models . dlm package . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . environment . fossil fuels . geophysics . Giovanni Petris . global warming . greenhouse gases . Hyper Anthropocene . information theoretic statistics . maths . maximum likelihood . meteorology . model comparison . numerical software . Patrizia Campagnoli . Rauch-Tung-Striebel . Sonia Petrone . state-space models . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . SVD . time series

  Jun 6.2016
• On Munshi mush

  Bayes . Bayesian . Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project . BEST . carbon dioxide . cat1 . climate . climate change . climate data . climate education . climate models . convergent cross-mapping . dynamic linear models . ecology . ENSO . environment . Ethan Deyle . evidence . geophysics . George Sughihara . global warming . greenhouse gases . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . mathematics . maths . meteorology . model comparison . NOAA . oceanography . prediction . state-space models . statistics . Takens embedding theorem . Techno Utopias . the right to know . theoretical physics . time series . zero carbon

  Jun 5.2016
• Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)

  Akaike Information Criterion . approximate Bayesian computation . Bayes . Bayesian . evidence . Frequentist . games of chance . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . likelihood-free . mathematics . maths . maximum likelihood . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . probabilistic programming . rationality . Rauch-Tung-Striebel . Simpson’s Paradox . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics . stochastics

  May 7.2016
• “Lucky d20” (by Tamino, with my reblogging comments)

  Bayes . Bayesian . card decks . card draws . card games . chance . D&D . Dungeons and Dragons . games of chance . mathematics . maths . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . probability . statistical dependence . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastics . Wizards of the Coast

  May 1.2016
• HadCRUT4 and GISTEMP series filtered and estimated with simple RTS model

  AMETSOC . anemic data . Bayesian . boosting . bridge to somewhere . cat1 . changepoint detection . climate . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . climate models . complex systems . computation . data science . dynamical systems . geophysics . George Sughihara . global warming . hiatus . information theoretic statistics . machine learning . maths . meteorology . MIchael Mann . multivariate statistics . physics . prediction . Principles of Planetary Climate . rationality . reasonableness . regime shifts . sea level rise . time series

  Mar 18.2016
• p-values and hypothesis tests: the Bayesian(s) rule

  approximate Bayesian computation . arXiv . Bayes . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . bollocks . Christian Robert . climate . complex systems . data science . Frequentist . information theoretic statistics . likelihood-free . Markov Chain Monte Carlo . MCMC . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . population biology . rationality . reasonableness . science . scientific publishing . statistical dependence . statistics . stochastics . Student t distribution

  Mar 7.2016

• 

  “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

  approximate Bayesian computation . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . Boltzmann . BUGS . Christian Robert . Gibbs Sampling . JAGS . likelihood-free . Markov Chain Monte Carlo . Martyn Plummer . mathematics . maths . MCMC . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . optimization . probabilistic programming . SPSA . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search

  Feb 9.2016
• high dimension Metropolis-Hastings algorithms

  Bayes . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . boosting . chance . Christian Robert . computation . ensembles . Gibbs Sampling . James Spall . Jerome Friedman . Markov Chain Monte Carlo . mathematics . maths . MCMC . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . multivariate statistics . numerical software . numerics . optimization . reasonableness . Robert Schapire . SPSA . state-space models . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . stochastics . Yoav Freund

  Feb 6.2016
• Generating supports for classification rules in black box regression models

  approximate Bayesian computation . Bayes . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . generalized linear models . machine learning . numerical analysis . numerical software . probabilistic programming . rationality . reasonableness . state-space models . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . stochastics . support of black boxes

  Jan 25.2016
• R and “big data”

  Bayes . Bayesian . big data . bigmemory package for R . Jay Emerson . MCMC . numerics . Python 3 . R . Yale University Statistics Department

  Dec 21.2015