Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- London Review of Books
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- What If
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Professor David Draper
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Slice Sampling
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- "The Expert"
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- All about models
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Risk and Well-Being
- American Statistical Association
- Awkward Botany
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Karl Broman
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
climate change
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Earth System Models
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- SolarLove
- Climate model projections versus observations
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- The Sunlight Economy
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Warming slowdown discussion
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- RealClimate
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- And Then There's Physics
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Skeptical Science
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Simple models of climate change
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Bayes vs the virial theorem
This entry was posted in Bayesian, mathematics, maths, MCMC, reasonableness, science, statistics. Bookmark the permalink.
ecoquant
Apologies for the name confounding, Ewan!
Hi Jan,
The maximum likelihood, errors-in-variable method with selection of predictor variables by profile likelihood ratios described by Hannart et al is (as they acknowledge) quite an ‘old-fashioned’ statistical technique. There’s nothing ‘wrong’ with it per se, but I imagine due to the availability of fast codes for implementing the equivalent Bayesian model (e.g. R or STAN) many (perhaps most?) statisticians outside geophys would go Bayes. Bayesian model selection (or, for the prediction problem, model averaging) of course requires some care to check for sensitivity of the output to the parameter priors. But I would think it could have a lot of potential here owing to its flexibility: e.g. the errors don’t have to be assumed Normal (perhaps fat-tailed distributions make more sense), and/or the predictor variable set could be expanded to include variables for which one might not have observations at all places / time-points via data augmentation (e.g. http://amstat.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/jasa.2011.tm10518?src=recsys ).
cheers, Ewan (not Drew: but i get the confusion from my username which omits the periods in dr.ewan.cameron)
Thanks Drew! I’ll need to dig into that some time soon. (At least I’ll try.) Doesn’t really look too bad … I’m familiar with Polya urns, and stick-breaking processes are the heart of the Bayesian bootstrap which, in my immediate world, finds its way into Bayesian approaches for finite population sampling (Ghosh and Meeden).
I have SO many things to read, meaning study! Doing a lot of writing, too.
On the error in all variables problem, there’s a major paper on the climate science front,
A. Hannart, A. Ribes, and P. Naveau, “Optimal fingerprinting under multiple sources of uncertainty”, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058653
which I need to give priority.
There’s also one with an intriguing title and abstract, but I don’t know if it’s special or not:
D. Williamson, A. T. Blaker, “Evolving Bayesian Emulators for Structured Chaotic Time Series, with Application to Large Climate Models”, http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/120900915, 2014.
One update to my thoughts on non-parametric error models for semi-parametric Bayesian analyses: one limitation of the Dirichlet Process is that its concentration parameter controls both the ‘spike-iness’ of its realisations *and* their allowed ‘deviation’ from the reference distribution, so it may be worth exploring the more general class of Chinese restaurant processes reviewed thoroughly and explained (at a rather sophisticated level) by Zhou and Carin in “Negative Binomial Process Count and Mixture Modelling”.