The matter chronicled in Tamino’s post is just more reason why the results of Fyfe, Gillet, and Zwiers at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1972 which I wrote about at https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/warming-slowdown-2/ and https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2014/06/05/warming-slowdown-part-2/ look stranger and stranger. I increasingly think that the caution regarding ensembles exhibiting too little variance mentioned by Wilks, Toth, Zhug, Marchok, Palmer and others which I cited in https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2014/06/05/warming-slowdown-part-2/ was ignored in FGZ’s work, and that’s why their predictions are too tight.
Both NASA and NOAA report 2014 as the hottest year on record. Despite the new #1, neither the news itself nor the response to it has surprised me.
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