# Category Archives: forecasting

## Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths with uncertainties

I. Introduction. It’s time to fulfill the promise made in “Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths“, a blog post from 2nd May 2020, and produce the same with uncertainty clouds about the functional trajectories(*). To begin, here are some assumptions … Continue reading

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

## “Lockdown WORKS”

Originally posted on Open Mind:
Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot) As bad as that news is,…

## What happens when time sampling density of a series matches its growth

This is the newly updated map of COVID-19 cases in the United States, updated, presumably, because of the new emphasis upon testing: How do we know this is the recent of recent testing? Look at the map of active cases: … Continue reading

## “Climate Science for Climate Activists” is a wrap

The class “Climate Science for Climate Activists” I have taught for the last 6 or so weeks is now completed. The slides are available here.

## A look at an electricity consumption series using SNCDs for clustering

(Slightly amended with code and data link, 12th January 2019.) Prediction of electrical load demand or, in other words, electrical energy consumption is important for the proper operation of electrical grids, at all scales. RTOs and ISOs forecast demand based … Continue reading

Maybe they don’t. Most people don’t. On the other hand, there’s little more to them than understanding skeet, realizing aiming where the clay pigeon is now is a useless tactic for hitting it. Aim where the pigeon will be is … Continue reading

## climate model democracy

“One of the most interesting things about the MIP ensembles is that the mean of all the models generally has higher skill than any individual model.” We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all models are created equal, that … Continue reading

## forecast for 27th March 2018

Today is the 21st of March, 2018. We are supposed to get our fourth nor’easter tomorrow this late Winter, and the third nor’easter in nearly as many weeks. ECMWF hosted, in this incarnation, at the Meteocentre UQAM in Montreal created … Continue reading

## Schroders asset management forecasts global warming of more than +4℃

(Updated Thursday, 27 July 2017) Schroders is a global asset management firm. They very recently issued a warning that current global trends put the planet on track for more than +4℃ warming. The full news brief, from them, is available … Continue reading

## Global blinding, or Nature’s revenge against meteorologists who deny climate disruption

Given climate disruption due to radiative forcing from excess atmospheric CO2, which is a premise of this blog, it is only reasonable to wonder about, speculate, hypothesize, and posit that eventually the amount of this forcing and the feedbacks in … Continue reading

## The Azimuth Climate Data Backup Project, in association with ClimateMirror

(Updated the afternoon of 31st May 2017.) The Azimuth Climate Data Backup Project, operating in association with ClimateMirror, is being funded via the Kickstarter available at this link. Give what you can. Thanks! See our goal statement. This is all … Continue reading

## NCAR reports on a teleconnection between the Pacific and continental USA

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (“NCAR”) reports on a newly substantiated teleconnection between positive sea surface temperature anomalies (“SSTA”) in the Pacific and the temperatures over the continental United States (“CONUS”) 50 days later. A teleconnection is: A linkage … Continue reading

## On the rise of the Trumpistas …

Just a couple of things to write about The Obvious. I have written a couple of longer thoughts as Comments, here and here, at … And Then There’s Physics. I reiterate that I don’t believe any voter was hoodwinked, that … Continue reading

## On failing to learn important lessons

As previously posted here, people along coasts and their governments, are failing to learn the lessons of both climate-induced sea level rise, and storms like Extratropical Sandy. Now, it’s startlingly clear how ignorant people are of these necessary lessons. The … Continue reading

## Polls, Political Forecasting, and the Plight of Five Thirty Eight

On 17th October 2016 AT 7:30 p.m., Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com wrote about how, as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s polling numbers got better, it was more difficult for FiveThirtyEight‘s models to justify increasing her probability of winning, although … Continue reading

## Republican Governor Charles D. Baker, The Commonwealth of Massachusetts: On CLIMATE

An Executive Order, No. 569 ESTABLISHING AN INTEGRATED CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WHEREAS, climate change presents a serious threat to the environment and the Commonwealth’s residents, communities, and economy; WHEREAS, extreme weather events associated with climate change present … Continue reading

## “Predicting annual temperatures a year ahead” (Dr Gavin Schmidt at REALCLIMATE)

Dr Schmidt is essentially betting that the trend, seen as a random variable, will regress towards the smooth mean. I have a post at Nate Silver’s 538 site on how we can predict annual surface temperature anomalies based on El … Continue reading

## “Sharon’s Water Problem” (by Paul Lauenstein)

(Click on image to see a bigger version of this figure. Use your browser Back Button to return to this blog.) The town of Sharon, MA, has a water problem. Click on the link and see Paul’s presentation about it. … Continue reading

## Can the City of Boston adapt to and help mitigate climate disruption?

(See the major update at the bottom of this post as well.) (On “Less Science and More Social Science” at And Then There’s Physics) And Then There’s Physics is one of my favorite blogs discussing climate disruption and related policy … Continue reading

## Energy Democracy

I’ve actually written about this before, but John Farrell of the ILSR (“Institute for Local Self-Reliance” a famous Emerson essay, by the way) presents an up-to-date synthesis of developments, incorporating policy as well as Tony Seba-like, Hermann Scheer-like, and Michael … Continue reading

## TOO LATE: “There will be no golden age of [natural] gas”

Last month, Tom Randall at Bloomberg New Energy Finance (“BNEF”) profiled a new forecast which shows costs for zero Carbon energy and energy are plummetting so fast that coal, oil, and natural gas will begin their terminal decline within a … Continue reading

## “Full-depth Ocean Heat Content” reblog

This is a re-blog of an excellent post at And Then There’s Physics, titled Full-depth OHC or, expanded, “full-depth ocean heat content”. Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng … Continue reading

## Richard Somerville, UCSD, Scripps: “The science is becoming more widely accepted”

By Richard Somerville, emiritus professor of Oceanography from Scripps Institution of Oceanography. See the site he helps build and run regarding communication regarding change.

## The Presidential betting markets

Someone blatantly misrepresented the U.S. Presidential election betting markets in a Google+ comment thread tonight, and I wanted to bring these forward, here. See the latest odds and assessments from the prediction markets. Done. No doubt some supporters of Trump … Continue reading

## Rushing the +2 degree Celsius boundary

I made a comment on Google+ pertaining to a report of a recent NOAA finding. Enjoy. But remember that COP21 boundary is equivalent to 450 ppm CO2.

## Ray Kurzweil predicts dominance of energy industry by Solar in 12 years

Read it and weep, Carbon Worshippers. Facts are, with so much cheap solar electricity around, even if its supply is uneven in any particular locale, (a) the energy storage business will have big incentives to roll out, and roll out … Continue reading

## Remember 2012?

“Welcome to the rest of our lives …” Peter Sinclair speculates 2016 will be as bad and possibly worse than 2012.

## seek the beautiful, and avoid “climate justice”

Some people along the coast of Massachusetts are missing out. No matter. After the homes are flooded and razed, because their parents and grandparents were too foolish and short-sighted to see what should be done, the kids will turn the … Continue reading