Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Professor David Draper
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Slice Sampling
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- All about models
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Mertonian norms
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Label Noise
- NCAR AtmosNews
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Gabriel's staircase
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- "The Expert"
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Risk and Well-Being
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- American Statistical Association
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Gavin Simpson
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
climate change
- Earth System Models
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Reanalyses.org
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Simple models of climate change
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- RealClimate
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Ice and Snow
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Warming slowdown discussion
- World Weather Attribution
- Skeptical Science
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- The Sunlight Economy
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: forecasting
Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths with uncertainties
I. Introduction. It’s time to fulfill the promise made in “Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths“, a blog post from 2nd May 2020, and produce the same with uncertainty clouds about the functional trajectories(*). To begin, here are some assumptions … Continue reading
Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Harvey, anomaly detection, count data regression, COVID-19, dependent data, dlm package, Durbin and Koopman, dynamic linear models, epidemiology, filtering, forecasting, Kalman filter, LaTeX, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical algorithms, numerical linear algebra, population biology, population dynamics, prediction, R, R statistical programming language, regression, statistical learning, stochastic algorithms
Tagged prediction intervals
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Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests
(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading
Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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“Lockdown WORKS”
Tamino favors LASSO LOESS and piecewise linear models. I favor splines, especially penalized smoothing splines via the R package pspline, using generalized cross validation to set the smoothing parameter. Tamino looks for breaks in the piecewise linear case to check … Continue reading
What happens when time sampling density of a series matches its growth
This is the newly updated map of COVID-19 cases in the United States, updated, presumably, because of the new emphasis upon testing: How do we know this is the recent of recent testing? Look at the map of active cases: … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, climate denial, corruption, data science, data visualization, Donald Trump, dump Trump, epidemiology, experimental science, exponential growth, forecasting, Kalman filter, model-free forecasting, nonlinear systems, open data, penalized spline regression, population dynamics, sampling algorithms, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, sustainability, the right to know, the stack of lies
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“Climate Science for Climate Activists” is a wrap
The class “Climate Science for Climate Activists” I have taught for the last 6 or so weeks is now completed. The slides are available here.
Posted in alternatives to the Green New Deal, Anthropocene, Association to Preserve Cape Cod, being carbon dioxide, Blackbody radiation, bridge to somewhere, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, carbon dioxide sequestration, cement production, Clausius-Clapeyron equation, clean disruption, clear air capture of carbon dioxide, climate, Climate Adam, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate grief, climate models, ClimateAdam, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, ecomodernism, electric vehicles, electricity, Emily Shuckburgh, emissions, energy utilities, environment, evidence, EVs, flooding, floods, fluid dynamics, fluid eddies, food, food scarcity, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuel infrastructure, fossil fuels, Gavin Schmidt, geoengineering, geophysics, glaciers, glaciology, Glen Peters, Global Carbon Project, global warming, Grant Foster, Green New Deal, Green Tech Media, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Humans have a lot to answer for, hydrology, Hyper Anthropocene, ice sheet dynamics, icesheets, investment in wind and solar energy, investments, John Marshall, klaus lackner, lapse rate, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, life cycle sustainability analysis, Mark Jacobson, meteorological models, meteorology, Nathan Phillips, National Center for Atmospheric Research, negative emissions, nonlinear systems, nor'easters, ocean warming, oceanic eddies, oceanography, oceans, permafrost, personal purity, photovoltaics, precipitation, Principles of Planetary Climate, radiative forcing, Ray Pierrehumbert, Robert Young, science, sea level rise, seismology, shorelines, Sir David King, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, solar revolution, Stanford University, Stefan Rahmstorf, Steven Chu, Stewart Brand, sustainability, Svante Arrhenius, Tamino, the energy of the people, the green century, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, utility company death spiral, Wally Broecker, water, water as a resource, WHOI, wild fires, wind power, wishful environmentalism, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, zero carbon
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A look at an electricity consumption series using SNCDs for clustering
(Slightly amended with code and data link, 12th January 2019.) Prediction of electrical load demand or, in other words, electrical energy consumption is important for the proper operation of electrical grids, at all scales. RTOs and ISOs forecast demand based … Continue reading
Posted in American Statistical Association, consumption, data streams, decentralized electric power generation, dendrogram, divergence measures, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy efficiency, energy utilities, ensembles, evidence, forecasting, grid defection, hierarchical clustering, hydrology, ILSR, information theoretic statistics, local self reliance, Massachusetts, microgrids, NCD, normalized compression divergence, numerical software, open data, prediction, rate of return regulation, Sankey diagram, SNCD, statistical dependence, statistical series, statistics, sustainability, symmetric normalized compression divergence, time series
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Leaders (say they) Don’t Know About Lags
Maybe they don’t. Most people don’t. On the other hand, there’s little more to them than understanding skeet, realizing aiming where the clay pigeon is now is a useless tactic for hitting it. Aim where the pigeon will be is … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, atmosphere, attribution, Boston Ethical Society, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Cult of Carbon, dynamical systems, environment, ethics, evidence, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Massachusetts Interfaith Coalition for Climate Action, moral leadership, Our Children's Trust, Principles of Planetary Climate, rights of the inhabitants of the Commonwealth, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, tragedy of the horizon, unreason, UU, UU Humanists
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climate model democracy
“One of the most interesting things about the MIP ensembles is that the mean of all the models generally has higher skill than any individual model.” We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all models are created equal, that … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, attribution, Bayesian model averaging, Bloomberg, citizen science, climate, climate business, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate justice, Climate Lab Book, climate models, coastal communities, coastal investment risks, complex systems, differential equations, disruption, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ecology, emergent organization, ensemble methods, ensemble models, ensembles, Eric Rignot, evidence, fear uncertainty and doubt, FEMA, forecasting, free flow of labor, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, Jennifer Francis, Joe Romm, Kevin Anderson, Lévy flights, LBNL, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, liberal climate deniers, mathematics, mathematics education, model-free forecasting, multivariate adaptive regression splines, National Center for Atmospheric Research, obfuscating data, oceanography, open source scientific software, optimization, perceptrons, philosophy of science, phytoplankton
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forecast for 27th March 2018
Today is the 21st of March, 2018. We are supposed to get our fourth nor’easter tomorrow this late Winter, and the third nor’easter in nearly as many weeks. ECMWF hosted, in this incarnation, at the Meteocentre UQAM in Montreal created … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, atmosphere, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, coastal communities, ensemble methods, ensemble models, fluid dynamics, forecasting, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, meteorological models, meteorology, numerical algorithms, physics, science, science education, spaghetti plots, tragedy of the horizon, water vapor
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Schroders asset management forecasts global warming of more than +4℃
(Updated Thursday, 27 July 2017) Schroders is a global asset management firm. They very recently issued a warning that current global trends put the planet on track for more than +4℃ warming. The full news brief, from them, is available … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Buckminster Fuller, climate business, climate disruption, climate economics, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, corporate supply chains, disingenuity, dynamical systems, economics, environmental law, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuel infrastructure, global blinding, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, investing, investments, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Schroders, sea level rise, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, temporal myopia, the right to be and act stupid, the show, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, tragedy of the horizon, zero carbon
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Global blinding, or Nature’s revenge against meteorologists who deny climate disruption
Given climate disruption due to radiative forcing from excess atmospheric CO2, which is a premise of this blog, it is only reasonable to wonder about, speculate, hypothesize, and posit that eventually the amount of this forcing and the feedbacks in … Continue reading
Posted in Accuweather, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, climate, climate business, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate justice, dynamical systems, Eaarth, environment, evidence, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global blinding, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Kerry Emanuel, meteorological models, meteorology, National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, nonlinear systems, notes, oceanic eddies, oceanography, radiative forcing, Ricky Rood, science, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, theoretical physics
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The Azimuth Climate Data Backup Project, in association with ClimateMirror
(Updated the afternoon of 31st May 2017.) The Azimuth Climate Data Backup Project, operating in association with ClimateMirror, is being funded via the Kickstarter available at this link. Give what you can. Thanks! See our goal statement. This is all … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, citizen science, civilization, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate justice, Climate Lab Book, cynicism, denial, Donald Trump, education, EIA, ethics, evidence, fear uncertainty and doubt, forecasting, fossil fuels, Global Carbon Project, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, NASA, NOAA, open data, open source scientific software, rationality, reason, reasonableness, risk, science, science denier, science education, smart data, statistics, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, UU, ``The tide is risin'/And so are we''
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NCAR reports on a teleconnection between the Pacific and continental USA
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (“NCAR”) reports on a newly substantiated teleconnection between positive sea surface temperature anomalies (“SSTA”) in the Pacific and the temperatures over the continental United States (“CONUS”) 50 days later. A teleconnection is: A linkage … Continue reading
Posted in American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atmosphere, attribution, climate, climate data, coastal communities, coasts, dynamical systems, environment, fluid dynamics, fluid eddies, food, forecasting, geophysics, hydrology, Hyper Anthropocene, living shorelines, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, meteorological models, meteorology, National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, NOAA, oceanic eddies, oceanography, open data, Principles of Planetary Climate, sea level rise, U.S. Navy, WHOI, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
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On the rise of the Trumpistas …
Just a couple of things to write about The Obvious. I have written a couple of longer thoughts as Comments, here and here, at … And Then There’s Physics. I reiterate that I don’t believe any voter was hoodwinked, that … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Solar Energy Society, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atheism, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate zombies, coastal communities, consumption, corporate supply chains, cynicism, Daniel Kahneman, denial, disingenuity, Donald Trump, dynamical systems, Equiterre, exponential growth, extended supply chains, Exxon, fear uncertainty and doubt, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ice sheet dynamics, ignorance, Joseph Schumpeter, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Interfaith Coalition for Climate Action, meteorology, Minsky moment, moral leadership, oceanography, organizational failures, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reason, reasonableness, risk, science, science denier, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, temporal myopia, the energy of the people, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, wind energy, wind power, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, ``The tide is risin'/And so are we''
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On failing to learn important lessons
As previously posted here, people along coasts and their governments, are failing to learn the lessons of both climate-induced sea level rise, and storms like Extratropical Sandy. Now, it’s startlingly clear how ignorant people are of these necessary lessons. The … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, bollocks, case law, citizenship, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, coastal communities, coasts, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, ecological services, economics, environment, environmental law, evidence, flooding, forecasting, global warming, greenhouse gases, hydrology, Hyper Anthropocene, John Englander, liberal climate deniers, living shorelines, meteorological models, meteorology, nor'easters, oceanography, physics, planning, politics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, Robert Young, science, science denier, sea level rise, seawalls, shorelines, sustainability, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, water, zero carbon
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Polls, Political Forecasting, and the Plight of Five Thirty Eight
On 17th October 2016 AT 7:30 p.m., Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com wrote about how, as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s polling numbers got better, it was more difficult for FiveThirtyEight‘s models to justify increasing her probability of winning, although … Continue reading
Posted in abstraction, American Statistical Association, anemic data, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, economics, education, forecasting, information theoretic statistics, mathematics, maths, politics, prediction markets, sociology, the right to know, theoretical physics, thermodynamics
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Republican Governor Charles D. Baker, The Commonwealth of Massachusetts: On CLIMATE
An Executive Order, No. 569 ESTABLISHING AN INTEGRATED CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WHEREAS, climate change presents a serious threat to the environment and the Commonwealth’s residents, communities, and economy; WHEREAS, extreme weather events associated with climate change present … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, climate business, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, climate justice, coastal communities, engineering, environment, environmental law, evidence, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, gas pipeline leaks, Gaylord Nelson, geophysics, global warming, green tech, hurricanes, Hyper Anthropocene, insurance, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Massachusetts Interfaith Coalition for Climate Action, meteorology, Minsky moment, mitigation, moral leadership, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, risk, shorelines, stranded assets, sustainability, the right to know, transparency, zero carbon
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“Predicting annual temperatures a year ahead” (Dr Gavin Schmidt at REALCLIMATE)
Dr Schmidt is essentially betting that the trend, seen as a random variable, will regress towards the smooth mean. I have a post at Nate Silver’s 538 site on how we can predict annual surface temperature anomalies based on El … Continue reading
Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, changepoint detection, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, oceanography, physics, regression toward the mean, science, statistics, time series
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“Sharon’s Water Problem” (by Paul Lauenstein)
(Click on image to see a bigger version of this figure. Use your browser Back Button to return to this blog.) The town of Sharon, MA, has a water problem. Click on the link and see Paul’s presentation about it. … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, agriculture, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, Boston, citizen science, climate change, climate disruption, diffusion processes, drought, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, forecasting, global warming, hydrology, Hyper Anthropocene, MA, New England, Paul Lauenstein, precipitation, quantitative ecology, science, statistics, the tragedy of our present civilization, water, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
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Can the City of Boston adapt to and help mitigate climate disruption?
(See the major update at the bottom of this post as well.) (On “Less Science and More Social Science” at And Then There’s Physics) And Then There’s Physics is one of my favorite blogs discussing climate disruption and related policy … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bill Nye, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bollocks, Boston, bridge to somewhere, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate business, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, climate justice, Daniel Kahneman, destructive economic development, economics, engineering, environment, finance, floods, forecasting, Gaylord Nelson, global warming, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, insurance, investing, John Englander, Joseph Schumpeter, Kerry Emanuel, MA, Massachusetts, meteorology, Minsky moment, nor'easters, organizational failures, politics, risk, sea level rise, sociology, statistics, supply chains, sustainability, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets
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Energy Democracy
I’ve actually written about this before, but John Farrell of the ILSR (“Institute for Local Self-Reliance” a famous Emerson essay, by the way) presents an up-to-date synthesis of developments, incorporating policy as well as Tony Seba-like, Hermann Scheer-like, and Michael … Continue reading
Posted in abstraction, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, citizenship, clean disruption, CleanTechnica, climate economics, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, distributed generation, economics, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, evidence, extended supply chains, feed-in tariff, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, green tech, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, ILSR, investment in wind and solar energy, John Farrell, Joseph Schumpeter, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, liberal climate deniers, life purpose, local generation, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Michael Osborne, microgrids, open data, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, regulatory capture, risk, Sankey diagram, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Spaceship Earth, spatial statistics, statistics, stranded assets, sustainability, temporal myopia, the energy of the people, the green century, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon
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TOO LATE: “There will be no golden age of [natural] gas”
Last month, Tom Randall at Bloomberg New Energy Finance (“BNEF”) profiled a new forecast which shows costs for zero Carbon energy and energy are plummetting so fast that coal, oil, and natural gas will begin their terminal decline within a … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Petroleum Institute, Anthropocene, Bloomberg, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, Chevron, citizenship, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate justice, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, disruption, distributed generation, Ecology Action, economics, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, explosive methane, Exxon, false advertising, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, fracking, geoengineering, global warming, green tech, greenhouse gases, grid defection, Gulf Oil, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Joseph Schumpeter, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, methane, microgrids, natural gas, petroleum, pipelines, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, risk, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Standard Oil of California, stranded assets, supply chains, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the stack of lies, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, utility company death spiral, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon
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“Full-depth Ocean Heat Content” reblog
This is a re-blog of an excellent post at And Then There’s Physics, titled Full-depth OHC or, expanded, “full-depth ocean heat content”. Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, computation, differential equations, ensembles, environment, fluid dynamics, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Lorenz, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, physics, science, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series
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Richard Somerville, UCSD, Scripps: “The science is becoming more widely accepted”
By Richard Somerville, emiritus professor of Oceanography from Scripps Institution of Oceanography. See the site he helps build and run regarding communication regarding change.
Posted in adaptation, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atmosphere, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, environment, forecasting, global warming, meteorology, oceanography, Principles of Planetary Climate, science, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, University of California, zero carbon
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The Presidential betting markets
Someone blatantly misrepresented the U.S. Presidential election betting markets in a Google+ comment thread tonight, and I wanted to bring these forward, here. See the latest odds and assessments from the prediction markets. Done. No doubt some supporters of Trump … Continue reading
Rushing the +2 degree Celsius boundary
I made a comment on Google+ pertaining to a report of a recent NOAA finding. Enjoy. But remember that COP21 boundary is equivalent to 450 ppm CO2.
Posted in adaptation, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atmosphere, Bill Nye, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate disruption, COP21, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, differential equations, disruption, distributed generation, Donald Trump, ecology, El Nina, El Nino, energy, energy reduction, engineering, environment, environmental law, Epcot, explosive methane, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, local generation, Mark Jacobson, Martyn Plummer, microgrids, Miguel Altieri, philosophy, physical materialism, R, resiliency, Ricky Rood, risk, Sankey diagram
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Ray Kurzweil predicts dominance of energy industry by Solar in 12 years
Read it and weep, Carbon Worshippers. Facts are, with so much cheap solar electricity around, even if its supply is uneven in any particular locale, (a) the energy storage business will have big incentives to roll out, and roll out … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, Bill Nye, Bloomberg, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to somewhere, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, distributed generation, economics, efficiency, electricity, energy, engineering, environment, exponential growth, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, liberal climate deniers, local generation, planning, politics, population dynamics, public utility commissions, PUCs, quantitative ecology, rate of return regulation, rationality, Ray Kurzweil, reasonableness, regime shifts, regulatory capture, Sankey diagram, solar domination, solar energy, Solar Freakin' Roadways, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Stanford University, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon
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Remember 2012?
“Welcome to the rest of our lives …” Peter Sinclair speculates 2016 will be as bad and possibly worse than 2012.
Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, Carbon Worshipers, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, denial, environment, Exxon, FEMA, forecasting, forest fires, fossil fuels, fracking, games of chance, geophysics, George Sughihara, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, liberal climate deniers, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, meteorology, physics, rationality, reasonableness, regime shifts, science, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets
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seek the beautiful, and avoid “climate justice”
Some people along the coast of Massachusetts are missing out. No matter. After the homes are flooded and razed, because their parents and grandparents were too foolish and short-sighted to see what should be done, the kids will turn the … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, Canettes Blues Band, Cape Wind, capricious gods, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, coastal communities, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, denial, destructive economic development, disingenuity, ecology, economics, electricity markets, energy, energy utilities, engineering, environment, extended supply chains, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, liberal climate deniers, living shorelines, local generation, meteorology, microgrids, rationality, reasonableness, regime shifts, risk, Sankey diagram, Scituate, sea level rise, selfishness, sociology, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, T'kun Olam, temporal myopia, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon
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ecoquant
