“Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming”

Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Ray Pierrehumbert, and Dorian Abbot have a new paper out in Geophysical Research Letters which is pretty exciting, at least for me, having to do with both climate and dynamical systems. They are far from the only ones that explore this connection, with John Marshall and students of MIT coming to mind in their studies, but the paper apparently illustrates (haven’t read; paywall) how qualitatively different climate behaviors arise for differing values of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (“ECS”). Note the latter has been estimated (by, among others, Nathan Urban, Philip Holden, Neil Edwards, Ryan Sriver, and Klaus Keller), and, while it’s mean for land+oceans is around 3 degrees Celsius per doubling, it has a very long tail.

There is a comprehensive write-up at … and Then There’s Physics titled “Nonlinear feedbacks”.

There’s also an excellent discussion in the comments by some very knowledgeable people, like Eli Rabett and Pekka Pirilä, as well as aTTP. That excludes me, of course. (I’m just a part-time student of this stuff, and I continue to learn, principally using Professor Pierrehumbert’s great textbook, and other things, like Pond and Pickard’s Introductory Dynamical Oceanography and Knauss’ Introduction to Physical Oceanography.)

About ecoquant

See https://wordpress.com/view/667-per-cm.net/ Retired data scientist and statistician. Now working projects in quantitative ecology and, specifically, phenology of Bryophyta and technical methods for their study.
This entry was posted in bifurcations, Cauchy distribution, chance, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, science. Bookmark the permalink.

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